Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manistee Lake, MI
May 21, 2024 9:52 PM EDT (01:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 6:33 PM Moonset 3:49 AM |
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 919 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Overnight - South wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 220117 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 917 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A strong to severe line of storms is possible late this evening/tonight. The primary threat is damaging winds, with large hail and a tornado or two also possible.
- Pleasant temperatures but with occasional rain chances for the Memorial Day weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 916 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Mature convective complex well underway across western WI and eastern IA/MN this evening. A few stray isolated cells developing near GRB out ahead of the main line(s) of storms. Latest expectation is for this activity to continue to trek east-northeastward across eastern WI and the central U.P. through the evening, albeit in a somewhat weakening fashion.
Locally, instability will be diminishing with time and eastward extent with elevated CAPE progged up to 1,000 J/kg west of I-75 by midnight as convection begins to make a run across northern Lake Michigan. Have major doubts on just how much survives that march across the lake, but there remains enough support to continue the mention of isolated to scattered severe storms during the overnight hours with the primary threat continuing to be damaging winds. This threat aided by impressive wind fields progged to increase to 40-50+ kts just off the deck, strong low level shear (35-45 kts 0-1 km shear / 40+ kts 0-3 km shear) and relatively steep low-mid level lapse rates. Primary severe risk area still appears to be maximized west of Interstate 75, and even more so west of US-131...coinciding well with where MCS maintenance probabilities are highest. This area also where ~500 J/kg surface based CAPE may linger and the low potential for a tornado. The overall severe threat is fairly short- lived... largely ending by 3-4 AM. No changes to the SPC 01z Day outlook with the highest severe probabilities over western areas of the APX footprint.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Pattern/synopsis: Surface low pressure (currently 995 mb across western Iowa) is shown to deepen to 981 mb by Wednesday morning while tracking well northwest of the region.
Forecast: Tonight...As the deepening area of low pressure tracks from the central Plains into the northern Mississippi Valley, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to march across Wisconsin this evening, possibly reaching far western zones of northern lower just before midnight. Strong winds aloft (0-6 km bulk shear 50 to 60 knots) will likely accompany the line as well as the potential for large hail and perhaps even a tornado or two given the strong speed and directional shear. The latest SPC outlook continues the enhanced risk for severe storms near Manistee with a slight risk across much of the remainder of northern lower. However, the combination of the loss of daytime heating and the relatively cold waters of Lake Michigan will make it tough for any line of strong to severe storms to hold together this far east. A vast majority of model guidance is on board with this thinking and has the line weakening/splitting/falling apart as it progresses across the big lake. Although it looks doubtful, there is still a small chance chance that it could still impact parts of the region, especially along and near Lake Michigan. Most guidance doesn't give the line much of a chance of holding together east of I-75 on toward Lake Huron. Time will tell on this one and this will be monitored by the evening shift for current trends. Muggy tonight with lows only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Wednesday...Subsidence behind the departing system is expected to lead to at least partly sunny skies. Downsloping east of I-75 is expected to lead to highs of well into the 70s to around 80. Highs to the west in the low and mid 70s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A closed low will slowly track eastward as shortwave ridging builds across the Midwest in response to troughing digging across the Plains, and eventually towards Lake Superior. SW winds will turn W for Thursday and then slowly turn more N for Friday in response to the aformentioned features influencing the forecast area. Ridging and high pressure will provide moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs more seasonable in the 60s and 70s for Memorial Day weekend as flow turns more zonal. For Thursday, areas along the Lake Huron side could reach the 80s as W flow downslopes. Long term guidance suggests energy quickly tracking overhead through Friday night, bringing about the next appreciable shower chances to the region. The aforementioned trough will also bring more shower chances to the region for the holiday weekend.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Holiday weekend: Looks like an exceptional holiday weekend with moderating seasonal temperatures and mostly clear to sunny skies with some chances for showers at times. Daytime highs look to be in the 60s/70s for most, and potentially in the 80s for those in the southern-most locations of the forecast area. Friday night into Saturday continues to be the most likely timeframe for rain showers, and potentially a rumble of thunder or two. Looking at Sunday night into Monday, chances for showers pop up again as a trough and its associated low pressure tracks to Lake Superior.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR through this evening with focus revolving around a line of severe thunderstorms upstream currently across far western WI, eastern IA/MN. Latest trends support this line dissipating as it approaches during the late evening/overnight, but still enough support to include TSRA/VCTS at the terminals with the highest chances at CIU/PLN/TVC. CIGs /VSBYs briefly falling to IFR/MVFR in any heavier thunderstorms. Lower clouds likely to move in late tonight/early Wednesday morning with skies clearing through the day Wednesday. LLWS expected tonight, along with occasionally gusty surface winds. Erratic and and stronger gusts possible in and near and thunderstorms tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 917 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A strong to severe line of storms is possible late this evening/tonight. The primary threat is damaging winds, with large hail and a tornado or two also possible.
- Pleasant temperatures but with occasional rain chances for the Memorial Day weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 916 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Mature convective complex well underway across western WI and eastern IA/MN this evening. A few stray isolated cells developing near GRB out ahead of the main line(s) of storms. Latest expectation is for this activity to continue to trek east-northeastward across eastern WI and the central U.P. through the evening, albeit in a somewhat weakening fashion.
Locally, instability will be diminishing with time and eastward extent with elevated CAPE progged up to 1,000 J/kg west of I-75 by midnight as convection begins to make a run across northern Lake Michigan. Have major doubts on just how much survives that march across the lake, but there remains enough support to continue the mention of isolated to scattered severe storms during the overnight hours with the primary threat continuing to be damaging winds. This threat aided by impressive wind fields progged to increase to 40-50+ kts just off the deck, strong low level shear (35-45 kts 0-1 km shear / 40+ kts 0-3 km shear) and relatively steep low-mid level lapse rates. Primary severe risk area still appears to be maximized west of Interstate 75, and even more so west of US-131...coinciding well with where MCS maintenance probabilities are highest. This area also where ~500 J/kg surface based CAPE may linger and the low potential for a tornado. The overall severe threat is fairly short- lived... largely ending by 3-4 AM. No changes to the SPC 01z Day outlook with the highest severe probabilities over western areas of the APX footprint.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Pattern/synopsis: Surface low pressure (currently 995 mb across western Iowa) is shown to deepen to 981 mb by Wednesday morning while tracking well northwest of the region.
Forecast: Tonight...As the deepening area of low pressure tracks from the central Plains into the northern Mississippi Valley, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to march across Wisconsin this evening, possibly reaching far western zones of northern lower just before midnight. Strong winds aloft (0-6 km bulk shear 50 to 60 knots) will likely accompany the line as well as the potential for large hail and perhaps even a tornado or two given the strong speed and directional shear. The latest SPC outlook continues the enhanced risk for severe storms near Manistee with a slight risk across much of the remainder of northern lower. However, the combination of the loss of daytime heating and the relatively cold waters of Lake Michigan will make it tough for any line of strong to severe storms to hold together this far east. A vast majority of model guidance is on board with this thinking and has the line weakening/splitting/falling apart as it progresses across the big lake. Although it looks doubtful, there is still a small chance chance that it could still impact parts of the region, especially along and near Lake Michigan. Most guidance doesn't give the line much of a chance of holding together east of I-75 on toward Lake Huron. Time will tell on this one and this will be monitored by the evening shift for current trends. Muggy tonight with lows only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Wednesday...Subsidence behind the departing system is expected to lead to at least partly sunny skies. Downsloping east of I-75 is expected to lead to highs of well into the 70s to around 80. Highs to the west in the low and mid 70s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A closed low will slowly track eastward as shortwave ridging builds across the Midwest in response to troughing digging across the Plains, and eventually towards Lake Superior. SW winds will turn W for Thursday and then slowly turn more N for Friday in response to the aformentioned features influencing the forecast area. Ridging and high pressure will provide moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs more seasonable in the 60s and 70s for Memorial Day weekend as flow turns more zonal. For Thursday, areas along the Lake Huron side could reach the 80s as W flow downslopes. Long term guidance suggests energy quickly tracking overhead through Friday night, bringing about the next appreciable shower chances to the region. The aforementioned trough will also bring more shower chances to the region for the holiday weekend.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Holiday weekend: Looks like an exceptional holiday weekend with moderating seasonal temperatures and mostly clear to sunny skies with some chances for showers at times. Daytime highs look to be in the 60s/70s for most, and potentially in the 80s for those in the southern-most locations of the forecast area. Friday night into Saturday continues to be the most likely timeframe for rain showers, and potentially a rumble of thunder or two. Looking at Sunday night into Monday, chances for showers pop up again as a trough and its associated low pressure tracks to Lake Superior.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR through this evening with focus revolving around a line of severe thunderstorms upstream currently across far western WI, eastern IA/MN. Latest trends support this line dissipating as it approaches during the late evening/overnight, but still enough support to include TSRA/VCTS at the terminals with the highest chances at CIU/PLN/TVC. CIGs /VSBYs briefly falling to IFR/MVFR in any heavier thunderstorms. Lower clouds likely to move in late tonight/early Wednesday morning with skies clearing through the day Wednesday. LLWS expected tonight, along with occasionally gusty surface winds. Erratic and and stronger gusts possible in and near and thunderstorms tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 48 mi | 72 min | S 1.9G | 66°F | 29.65 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGOV GRAYLING AAF,MI | 11 sm | 23 min | SE 09 | 9 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 70°F | 64°F | 83% | 29.69 |
| KACB ANTRIM COUNTY,MI | 24 sm | 17 min | SE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 29.64 |
Gaylord, MI,
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