Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 6:45 PM   Moonset 4:06 AM

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SLZ024 Expires:202405212115;;603015 Fzus61 Kbuf 211426 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1026 am edt Tue may 21 2024
slz022-024-212115- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1026 am edt Tue may 21 2024
This afternoon - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers late in the evening. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day. Friday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Saturday - North winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 211721 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few showers and scattered storms are possible across northern New York this morning. More widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, some of which could be strong to locally severe. Temperatures also warm well into the 80s today and again on Wednesday before cooler temperatures and drier weather return on Friday into Memorial Day weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1002 AM EDT Tuesday...The KCXX and KTYX radars show morning showers and embedded thunderstorms continuing across nrn NY at 14Z. This activity will continue ENEWD at 20-30kts resulting in brief moderate rainfall and some embedded rumbles of thunder through 16-17Z across the northern Champlain Valley into far nrn VT. Better large-scale forcing arrives with the shortwave trough centered across the Ottawa Valley. This feature combined with peak daytime heating (valley 2m temperatures in the mid 80s) is expected to result in renewed convective initiation across the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks, with convective storms translating ewd across the Champlain Valley into central VT during the 3-7pm time frame. Most of the very high-resolution guidance highlights Essex County NY into Addison County VT with the highest concentration of convective activity during the mid-late afternoon hours. With PBL temps in the low-mid 80s and dewpoints reaching the mid-60s, anticipate SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, with minimal CINH as better forcing arrives near 18Z. Sfc-6km bulk shear values of 25-30 kts should be supportive of multicellular storms and storm clusters resulting from outflow interactions. Should see a few strong to severe storms, with localized wind damage and mostly sub-severe hail possible. SPC Day 1 Outlook continues with a Marginal Risk across most of our forecast area, which looks on track based on the latest observational trends. Convection should dissipate late this evening with onset of the diurnal cooling cycle.

Another round of convection is possible on Wednesday, though there is less synoptic scale lifting and shear. Currently, an area of convection should develop over Ontario where there looks to just be enough lift from another weak shortwave. As the storms reach the region, they will outrun this forcing and encounter less favorable conditions. There is a chance of seeing severe storms over northern New York. The SPC put these areas in a marginal risk again. However, the conditions looks less favorable than Tuesday. These storms will weaken as they travel east and they should lose any severe characteristics as they reach Vermont. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of the year so far, with highs generally ranging between 85-90.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue into the evening hours on Wednesday. Models depict a pre-frontal trough crossing the area Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, with a few hundred J/kg of surface-based CAPE helping to fuel the forward motion of any storms that form earlier in the afternoon.
0-6km shear is quite marginal between 15 and 20 kt, so while a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out, at this time, they are less likely to reach severe criteria. The current Day 2 SPC convective outlook has marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across our far western zones, which seem reasonable given the overall weak shear and unimpressive forcing. PWATs are in the 1.2 to 1.4 inches range, which is in the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. While locally heavy downpours are possible with any storm that develop, flooding threat is low given the overall fast moving nature. Temperatures wise, southerly flow means overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s, with similar dew points making for a rather muggy night.
Winds gusting 15 to 25 mph at times would help it feel more tolerable.

Surface cold front comes through on Thursday with height falls and temperatures aloft falling during the day from west to east. Dew points should fall rather quickly into the 40s and 50s by the morning hours across northern NY, but could stay near 60 across Vermont. As such, the best chance for decent shear to overlap with surface-based instability is across Vermont on Thursday afternoon.
And this is where the forecast indicates better chances for thunderstorms. At this time, while a few stronger storms are possible, they should stay mainly below severe criteria.
Temperatures wise, best probability of low to mid 80s would be across Vermont, with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s across northern NY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Behind the cold front on Thursday, we get a reprieve from the recent early season heat, with much more seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected on Friday into much of the weekend. While a few showers cannot be ruled out, our region should see mainly dry weather and rather refreshing conditions with dew points in the 40s and 50s. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms does not arrive until Memorial Day itself but forecast confidence is low this far out.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Isold to scattered thunderstorm activity may impact TAF locations 19-23Z across VT and northern NY this afternoon/early eve. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible, along with dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.
T-storm activity dissipates later this evening with mainly scattered midlevel (VFR) cloudiness. May see BR/FG formation east of the Green Mtns, especially in the CT River Valley, during the pre- dawn hours on Wednesday. During Wednesday morning, VFR conditions expected with just FEW-SCT200-250. Winds generally light S-SW across the region this afternoon away from any thunderstorm activity.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921

May 23: KPBG: 65/1964

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
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Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Burlington, VT,