Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 6:42 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM

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LMZ543 Expires:202405220100;;622229 Fzus53 Kgrb 212143 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 443 pm cdt Tue may 21 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz542-543-220100- sturgeon bay to two rivers wi-two rivers to sheboygan wi- 443 pm cdt Tue may 21 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 11 pm cdt this evening - ..small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm cdt this evening through Wednesday afternoon - .
Rest of this afternoon - E wind 10 to 20 kts. Widespread dense fog. A slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - SE wind 15 to 25 kts veering S after midnight. Widespread dense fog in the evening. Rain showers in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft late in the evening, then building to 6 to 10 ft after midnight subsiding to 5 to 8 ft early in the morning. Wednesday - SW wind 15 to 25 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday night - SW wind 10 to 20 kts decreasing to 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 212121 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 421 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of southern Wisconsin until midnight, with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms possible.

- Isolated thunderstorms have developed over south-central and southwestern Wisconsin late this afternoon. Some of these storms could be severe through early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected will move in from the west this evening. Severe weather will also be possible in this activity. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, though hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

- Marine Dense Fog will continue to decrease in coverage through the afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued 420 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 279 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

In coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, a tornado watch has been issued for most of southern Wisconsin until midnight. This watch includes the Madison metro. The city of Milwaukee/Milwaukee County are not included in this initial watch. A weak surface warm front is draped across the region late this afternoon, with current analyses placing the boundary along an approximate Lone Rock - Madison - Burlington line.
Winds have turned out of the southeast along/south of the boundary, with stations in the warm sector reporting temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the mid-upper 60s.
Likely encouraged by this boundary, widely scattered thunderstorms have initiated & tracked into southwestern Wisconsin over the last 30 mins, with severe warnings currently in effect for Iowa and Lafayette Cos. A near term (next 1-2 hours) large hail and damaging wind threat will persist with this activity, though the longevity of the threat deeper into the evening/when storms move north of the front is unclear.
Given an environment characterized by abundant low level shear south of the warm front, a tornado threat will exist in storms remaining south of the front.

A several hour lull between this leading batch of storms and additional activity over Iowa is anticipated. We expect these storms to begin moving in following 7 PM, with activity pushing through the region through midnight. Damaging winds will be a concern in these storms, in addition to the potential for line- embedded/spin up tornadoes. Have multiple ways to receive warning information through this evening, and be prepared to move to shelter if a warning is issued for your area.

Quigley

SHORT TERM
Issued 244 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Low to mid level warm, moist advection continues from IA into WI. The sfc warm front is currently stalled and stretches from near Lake Geneva to just south of Madison. This area of 1000-925 mb frontogenesis then extends south through ern IA into ne MO.
A strong storm has developed along this boundary west of Dubuque. Isold SVR storms will continue to be possible until the more widespread convection arrives this evening.

The warm front should still move toward central WI by early evening as the deepening sfc low over wrn IA tracks to just west of KMSP by 00Z Wed. The amplifying upper wave, strong cold front, and a broken to solid line of convection will then sweep across WI this evening. Mdt to strong deep layer shear and strong low level shear is present but there are limiting factors to the severe potential this evening. An area of high MLCIN exists over far wrn WI into ne IA where rounds of storms have kept the warm front from advancing nwd. Also, an incoming warm layer from 800-700 mb could yield a high LFC and very low 0-3 km CAPE even after the warm front advances. In addition, boundary layer cooling will begin to occur as sunset approaches. Although there would still be some tornado risk over south central WI, damaging winds and hail may be more probable. The warm layer and building MLCIN could then actually cause the line to dissipate over far se WI as indicated by some CAMs.

Cold advection to then take hold into Wed AM with a shortwave trough to pass in the afternoon. Despite the trough, drying conditions should bring some sunshine for the afternoon and high temps in the lower 70s. High pressure will then pass to the south Wed nt with lgt swly winds over srn WI.

Gehring

LONG TERM
Issued 244 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

Height rises associated with an upper level ridge will propagate eastward across Wisconsin on Thursday which combined with surface high pressure and dry air throughout the column will allow for dry and sunny weather with highs in the upper 70s.

Showers and storms are expected to return Friday as the next 500hPa shortwave trough ejects off the Rocky Mountains and traverses the northern Great Plains Thursday afternoon and overnight. Current model guidance depicts this trough taking on more of a negative tilt as it moves towards Wisconsin with a deepening low pressure system at the surface moving northeastward across Minnesota. Model soundings indicate decent mid-level lapse rates and CAPE values as well as modest 0-6km wind shear in the afternoon with a surface cold front progged to move across the state throughout the day which would prove to be a forcing mechanism. The mesoscale parameters combined with the upper level dynamics suggests there may be potential for stronger storms on Friday. However, there is the issue of potential morning convection depleting the environment of these better conditions, leading to uncertainty in the potential strength of Friday storms.
Discrepancy between the models still exists with the GFS indicating a faster and stronger solution as compared to the Euro/Canadian which would impact the strength of storms. These variations will dissipate over the next few days though and we should get a clearer picture as we get closer to Friday.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will briefly pass through Wisconsin Saturday before yet another upper level shortwave trough and associated surface low deepen across the Plains before moving towards Wisconsin. There is again discrepancy between the models with the location and path of this low on Sunday with the Euro/Canadian bringing the low into southern Wisconsin allowing for shower/storm chances across our area while the GFS keeps the low further south across Illinois and Indiana with the Wisconsin/Illinois border perhaps seeing a little precipitation. Have gone with 30%-40% PoPs Sunday into early Monday given the uncertainty associated with this system.
Weak upper level ridging will move through Wisconsin Monday and should provide for drier conditions early next week.

Falkinham

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 244 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The Cigs well below 1 kft north of the MKE metro area will dissipate by late afternoon or early evening. Otherwise isolated strong to severe storms will move across south central WI this afternoon followed by a north to south line moving ewd across srn WI for the evening hours. After the cold front passes, MVFR Cigs are expected to develop over much of srn WI and continue into Wed AM before dissipating by afternoon. LLWS is expected this evening due to a strong swly low level jet stream.

Gehring

MARINE
Issued 244 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Low pressure around 29.3 inches over western Iowa will deepen to 29.1 inches by early evening just northwest of Minneapolis, then track to western Ontario by sunrise Wednesday. East to southeast winds will increase this afternoon as a warm front approaches, becoming breezy south winds, possibly approaching gale force, as the front moves northward across the lake this evening. Areas of dense fog should dissipate by early this evening over the south half of the lake.

A strong cold front will then veer the winds to southwesterly late tonight with the breezy winds continuing over the north half of the lake through Wednesday. Light to modest southwest winds will then prevail over the entire lake for Wednesday night and Thursday. Widespread thunderstorms are expected tonight and may contain strong, damaging winds.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor tnt-Wed for breezy southerly winds and high waves.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Dense Fog Advisory
LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669- LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 4 PM Wednesday.

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