Sunrise 5:05 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 6:26 PM   Moonset 3:49 AM

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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 330 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 4 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Fri - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 330 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure will remain along the east coast through Wednesday a cold front then approaches and passes through on Thursday and brings the chance for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure builds in from the north into the the weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 210740 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 340 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the East Coast will bring very warm temperatures to the region through Wednesday. Disturbances tracking across southeast Canada will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday night and crosses Thursday for more widespread showers and storms. Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front with mostly dry conditions going into the weekend as high pressure builds in from Canada.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Big sfc high lined up just offshore of the coast, with SW flow to its N and W and zonal W flow aloft. This spells heat, and it will be anywhere from 5-10 F warmer today than Monday. Any early morning stratus should dissipate by mid morning. The sea breeze still develops as flow will not be strong enough to overcome the sea breeze today, so highs range from the low to mid 60s along the immediate coast, especially over the mid coast, closer to 70 along the coast from Casco Bay S. Meanwhile, inland areas mostly range from 80-85. For this afternoon will have to watch approaching MCS crossing S Ontario early this morning, as it track along the NY/Canada border today. It is likely to weaken by the time it gets to to the CWA, but, should produce enough forcing to initiate convection over NH mid to late afternoon. It will be more scattered and chance will increase as you head you head N. Still, there’s enough instability /CAPE around 1000 J/kg, perhaps closer 2000 depending on what model you believe/, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts. This lowers as you head east, so I think more of the focus for any strong storms will be over inland NH, and maybe the Western ME mtns. Strong to damaging wind will be the biggest threat, but could see some hail as well, as some storms could get a little more organized.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The t-storms will likely continue into early evening, but the the treat for severe will drop off quickly around sunset, both due to loss of heating and the fact the 500 mb wave is weakening as it approaches. Still the remnant MCS will take much of the evening to move across the N zones so showers are possible there until midnight or so. SW flow should keep enough on the boundary layer to keep temps from falling too much, and the convective debris will linger overnight as well, so mins will mostly be in upper 50s to low 60s, but a few degrees cooler on the mid coast where marine layer will be established. Some patchy fog will be possible again, with the best chance in the marine layer on the mid coast, and anywhere it rained this afternoon/evening.

Wednesday will be the hottest day this week with WSW flow picking up again behind the wave and 850 mb temps pushing up to near 17 C in the afternoon. SW flow will be fairly strong at the sfc to prevent the sea breeze from doing much cooling, except at the beaches. Still the Gulf of ME will have some effect as it shift the flow a little ore S so the coast will be a little be cooler than inland, but still temps range from the low to mid 80s on the coast and in the mtns, to around 90 in central and srn NH. The MCS that falls apart late tonight over N ME could leave some boundaries in the ME mtns on Wed, so cannot rule out some isolated convection developing there Wed afternoon, but this a low chance.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Deep layer ridging in place along the East Coast. Disturbances rounding the top of the ridge will bring chances for showers and Wednesday night, mainly across the north. Height falls and the passage of a cold front will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday. There will be a gradual cooling trend into the weekend with mostly dry conditions as high as high pressure over eastern Canada extends into New England.

The two sources of potential impactful weather will be the very warm conditions Wednesday and Thursday and the chance for strong thunderstorms Thursday.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day in this stretch of above normal temperatures with high pressure stretching from the Southeast to offshore of New England. Southwest winds along T8s climbing to +17C will bring highs into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. There will be some onshore wind component that will bring a marine influence on temperatures near the coast while even here highs will be near 80 degrees. Favorable mixing will keep dewpoints in the upper 50s where it will be warmest and therefore the humidity will not be high enough to bring heat indices higher than the air temperature. Disturbances moving atop a mid level ridge will trigger some showers and thunderstorms mainly across the mountains and north Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday will be warm again with increasing humidity. A cold front will cross the area from the west, with some timing differences amongst the 12Z model suite as to when the front will cross.
Some model solutions have the front sweeping across the area prior to peak heating around mid day, which will limit the severe potential. A later frontal passage will allow for better CAPE juxtaposed with sufficient shear for strong to severe storms, so will have to monitor the timing of this front over the next few forecast cycles.

The cold front will be offshore by Friday morning with high pressure building in from the north through the weekend. This will bring cooler and drier air into the region for what looks like pleasant conditions for the holiday weekend.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...Fog and stratus has develop[ed along the coast, with some low stratus at some spots inland, mainly KMHT and KAUG attm. KPSM is still VFR, and the models were suggesting that might stay that way overnight. Otherwise, I expect KLEB/KHIE to fog in at their usual 09Z time, and I’m not gonna rule out a brief sunrise surprise at KCON around this time as well. The inland flight restrictions should lift around 12Z while coastal terminals will be more like 13Z. Should VFR through this evening with the exception of SHRA/TSRA at NH terminals, although best chance will be KHIE/KLEB mid afternoon through early evening.
Coastal fog/stratus likes to return again later tonight but may be limited KRKD, and maybe KPWM again. Valley fog at KLEB/KHIE possible again as well, especially if it rains there.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Wednesday night while some TSRA could impact KHIE. A cold front crosses Thursday bringing TSRA that will likely bring periods of restrictions. Drier air arrives Thursday night allowing for VFR to prevail into Saturday.

MARINE
Short Term...SW flow will increase a bit today and may see a few gusts of 20-25 kt outside the bays this afternoon and evening, but should stay below SCA conds right through Wed night.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Thu into the weekend. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday that will bring chances for thunderstorms over the waters.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Boothbay Harbor
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Tue -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:20 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT     8.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:25 PM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
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Boothbay Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

Lowe Point (northeast of)
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Tue -- 02:15 AM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:33 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:29 PM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
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Lowe Point (northeast of), Sasanoa River, Maine Current, knots

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