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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

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FXUS61 KBUF 210651 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mid-summer warmth will be upon the Lower Lakes today with well above normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels. With the mild conditions and humidity today it will also support some showers and thunderstorm well inland from the lakes. A greater threat for showers and storms arrives Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend. Unsettle weather then makes a return on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
All eyes are focused on a convectively enhanced shortwave tracking across Lake Huron overnight. Hi-res guidance largely keep most of the showers and convection north of Lake Ontario
That said
an isolated shower or storm still can't be ruled out as it draws closer and then begins to pass to the north this morning.

Otherwise...mid-summer warmth will be upon us today with temperatures more typical of July than late May. Highs today will once again soar into the mid to upper 80s. We even potentially could hit the 90F in a few locales, especially in the Genesee Valley.
There will also be some showers and storms to contend with as the shortwave passes to our north by this afternoon. The best shot to see a shower or storm will be found well inland from the cooler stable lakes, especially from the Genesee Valley northeast across the Finger Lakes into the North Country.

Tonight...with the loss of daytime heating most showers and storms will fall apart with dry weather expected across the region. Muggy (dwpts in the 60s) and mild night with mercury reading found in the mid to upper 60s by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A broad based upper level trough spread across the western half of the CONUS Tuesday night, will allow for a few shortwaves to ripple through. Well to the north of New York, a remnant convective shortwave trough will continue to pass east across northern Ontario and Quebec. With its passage the lingering showers and thunderstorms, now across the eastern portions of the North Country will continue to diminish shortly after sunset due to the lack of diurnal heating. Meanwhile to the west, the next potent convective shortwave trough over Minnesota will continue to lift north, as a result this will support surface low pressure over northern Minnesota to continue to lift northeastward into southwestern Ontario. Extending southward from this low is a cold front lying across Lake Michigan towards the southern Mississippi Valley.
Provided this set up, warm moist air will continue to advect into the area Tuesday night creating some muggy sleeping conditions with lows ranging in the 60s.

Additionally, with the cold front to the west of the area Wednesday morning, the day will start off dry ahead of its prefrontal trough.
As the front and prefrontal trough marches eastward Wednesday, there is an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With the afternoon/evening arrival time, this will support a few stronger storms as plenty of instability and ample moisture. One of the saving graces and hindering the severity of the storms is the later arrival of the stronger winds, thusly limiting the shear. With all of this being said, a few gusty winds are not out of question since there is bountiful instability and moisture. In line with this thinking, the Storm Prediction Center continues to support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Also, given the inch and a half PWAT values some heavy downpours will also be possible, however ample storm motion should keep the activity moving and limit flooding to a minimum. Similar to Tuesday, southwest winds will transport warm moist air into the region Wednesday and support another day of temperatures ranging in the 80s, though Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer.

The cold front and the next round of showers will then cross the area Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. Due to the timing of the frontal passage and the lack of diurnal heating, severe chances are diminished. For the later half of Thursday, dry air will begin to advect into the region drying out conditions from west to east, where the area will be completely dry by Thursday night. With the passage of the front Wednesday night into Thursday, expect temperatures to cool in the wake of the front by nearly 10 degrees. Highs Thursday will rand in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure over our region will begin the period dry with fair weather. Still some uncertainty when the next chance for showers will arrive. A stationary boundary well to our south will lift northward as a warm front through OH/PA...but moisture and showers with this feature may just stay to our south Saturday - Saturday night.

An area of deepening low pressure cutting through the western Great Lakes Sunday will bring this warm front to our south up across our region for Sunday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Lingering boundaries and as the surface low draws closer to our region Monday will continue chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Comfortable dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s Friday and Saturday will become a bit higher with the warm front Sunday and Monday.
Dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60F will give a touch of humidity to the air for the end of the holiday weekend.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
There is a low end chance of a shower or storm as a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches and then begins to pass to our north overnight into this morning. If a shower or storm did make it into our region tied to the shortwave it would only briefly impact KIAG or KROC
Otherwise
most terminals will continue to see VFR.

VFR and light winds will continue today, there will be some afternoon and evening storms across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and then northeast into the North Country.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario overnight. There will also be a low end chance of a shower or thunderstorm as a weak wave approaches and then begins to pass to the north of Lake Ontario.

South winds develop and pick up a bit today as a cold front to our west begins to approach the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will remain below small craft levels. Low pressure will sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday but winds and waves look like it will remain below small craft conditions for the rest of the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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