Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 2:23 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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FXUS65 KBOI 172029 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 229 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday night...The cold front that moved through the region this morning is well to our southeast now, with gusty northwest winds in it's wake across most of the region. Gusts to 40-50 mph are continuing across the Magic Valley and mountain tops, with sustained westerly winds from 20-30 mph across the region. These strong winds will likely lower quite a bit as night falls, but breezy winds will return tomorrow morning. The dry air mass is also lowering our relative humidities to the upper teens to low twenties across the region. Temperatures have moderated to near normal as well, well below the nearly 90F temperatures observed across the region yesterday. Near normal temperatures will continue through Saturday, with breezy conditions expected again tomorrow afternoon. Another cold frontal passage is expected on Sunday morning around 5-8 am MDT across the region, with a low chance (<30% chance) of rain across the northern portions of the West Central Mountains. Breezy winds will accompany the frontal passage on Sunday morning, though lower wind speeds are expected across the region compared to today's wind speeds. Temperatures will lower to slightly below normal with that frontal passage, beginning a cooling trend for next week.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...A series of upper troughs will keep unsettled weather over the region next week. Showers will linger across the mountains on Monday as a system exits eastward. After a break from precipitation on Tuesday the next upper trough arrives Wednesday with more widespread precipitation. Wednesday is the highest confidence day with deterministic models showing the most overlap in the track and timing of this feature. The result is a broad area of 30-60% chance of precipitation with 70-90% in the mountains on Wednesday. Snow levels will start around 7kft, dropping to 5-6kft Wednesday night and Thursday. Solutions diverge on how to handle the evolution of this trough Thursday and Friday, but the general pattern is for a longwave trough to remain positioned over the Pac NW into next weekend which will keep it cool and possibly unsettled. Starting Wednesday temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

AVIATION
VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-40 kt through late early this evening, then W-NW 5- 15kt after 02Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Gusty northwest winds decreasing 00Z-03Z this evening.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing clouds Sunday. The central Idaho mountains will see a 20-50% of showers with snow levels 5-6kft MSL. Surface winds W to NW 10-20 kt. Local gusts to 30 kt over higher terrain on Saturday and in the Snake Plain on Sunday.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ014-016-028-030.
OR...None.

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