Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roosevelt Park, MI
May 21, 2024 9:18 PM EDT (01:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:12 AM Sunset 9:10 PM Moonrise 6:35 PM Moonset 3:58 AM |
LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through Wednesday evening - .
Through early evening - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight - South winds to 30 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 8 feet after midnight.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday - West winds around 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest, then veering north late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 220115 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 915 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe Weather Potential Tonight
- Dry for Wednesday and Thursday; Rain Chances Return Friday
- Rain Chances Linger Through the Holiday Weekend
UPDATE
Issued at 915 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
No significant fcst changes are needed or planned this evening. A consensus of latest CAMs continues to indicate that severe thunderstorms to our west across Wisconsin will gradually congeal into a QLCS and cross Lake MI between around 03Z and 04Z.
Potential for severe wx still exists mainly west of US-131 between around 04Z and 05Z.
However it is noted that overall trends in latest CAMs and the 12Z HRRR as compared to the 00Z run yesterday evening show less in terms of potential for severe wind gusts this far east into our area. This includes a consensus of latest probabilistic guidance for higher end wind gusts. Latest trends in the HRRR continue to support this notion.
Will continue to monitor very closely as a well organized squall line or QLCS can overperform. However latest model trends do not show this as the most likely outcome. If there is any severe wx across our area damaging wind gusts are the primary svr wx threat west of US-131 and particularly near Lake MI.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
- Severe Weather Potential Tonight
Not expecting more than scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening before a squall line moves across Lake Michigan from Wisconsin and reaches the western zones around midnight.
Flat shortwave ridging at mid-levels is apparently suppressing afternoon convection today, but heights will begin to fall as a negatively-tilted shortwave trough closes off over Minnesota accompanied by sfc cyclone tracking into Canada with a cold front advancing into Lower Michigan overnight.
An analysis of model soundings and other model-generated severe weather probability guidance suggests the greatest chance for severe weather tonight will be across the western forecast area near the Lake Michigan shore. A line of storms in western Iowa at 330 PM EDT is progged to expand and move east, crossing Lake Michigan. Main threat for our nearshore waters and western forecast area is for downburst winds but transient QLCS mesocyclone circulations cannot be ruled out, resulting in enhanced swaths of higher winds and even a quick tornado.
Model soundings suggest instability decreases as the storms move east and some of the model guidance show a corresponding weakening of the line of storms before they reach Grand Rapids.
The front becomes more parallel to the environmental winds on Wednesday slowing and stalling near or south of the forecast area with lingering showers possible near JXN during Wednesday.
- Dry for Wednesday and Thursday; Rain Chances Return Friday
Good forecast certainty remains for a dry Wednesday and Thursday and this will be accompanied by much more seasonal highs in the 70s.
Humidity will be substantially less oppressive too with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and then 40s by Thursday.
GOES satellite water vapor channels show an upper PV maximum currently diving southward into the Pacific Northwest region. This feature will eventually emerge as a cyclonically breaking upper wave over the Upper Mississippi valley region Friday afternoon/evening.
Strong upper divergence with this feature will support a solid coverage of showers and storms pushing eastward into our forecast area Friday night, although the best QG forcing should remain well northwest of our area. This combined with nocturnal stabilization should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms.
- Rain Chances Linger Through the Holiday Weekend
Unfortunately, forecast details for Memorial Day weekend remain quite uncertain. A brief lull in precipitation for at least part of Saturday seems probable, but that's about as definitive as I want to get right now. Starting Saturday afternoon, PoPs for the rest of the holiday weekend look to be in the neighborhood of 20 percent, which is right around climatology. High temperatures will be quite close to climatology as well in the neighborhood of low 70s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
This set of terminal forecasts features a fairly significant change from previous thinking with regards to thunderstorms later tonight. This change is dropping thunder wording altogether at all of the sites except KMKG, where we went with a VCTS.
Convection is not as widespread or strong as thought earlier. The latest model trends give us increasing confidence that the convection out to our west may just clip the NW portion of our area. It will be a close call at KMKG, thus the reason with VCTS there.
The biggest impact will likely be some MVFR cloud cover that will move in near the cold front late tonight and first thing Wednesday morning. A few showers will be possible with the actual front, then just clouds. The clouds will then lift and break up Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will increase late this evening from the SSW with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. The winds will generally stay up most of the rest of the forecast period, becoming more from the SW on Wednesday.
MARINE
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. In addition to strong southwest winds from the tightening pressure gradient, there could be gusts over 50 knots tonight as a squall line moves across Lake Michigan, arriving in the nearshore area around midnight.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 915 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe Weather Potential Tonight
- Dry for Wednesday and Thursday; Rain Chances Return Friday
- Rain Chances Linger Through the Holiday Weekend
UPDATE
Issued at 915 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
No significant fcst changes are needed or planned this evening. A consensus of latest CAMs continues to indicate that severe thunderstorms to our west across Wisconsin will gradually congeal into a QLCS and cross Lake MI between around 03Z and 04Z.
Potential for severe wx still exists mainly west of US-131 between around 04Z and 05Z.
However it is noted that overall trends in latest CAMs and the 12Z HRRR as compared to the 00Z run yesterday evening show less in terms of potential for severe wind gusts this far east into our area. This includes a consensus of latest probabilistic guidance for higher end wind gusts. Latest trends in the HRRR continue to support this notion.
Will continue to monitor very closely as a well organized squall line or QLCS can overperform. However latest model trends do not show this as the most likely outcome. If there is any severe wx across our area damaging wind gusts are the primary svr wx threat west of US-131 and particularly near Lake MI.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
- Severe Weather Potential Tonight
Not expecting more than scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening before a squall line moves across Lake Michigan from Wisconsin and reaches the western zones around midnight.
Flat shortwave ridging at mid-levels is apparently suppressing afternoon convection today, but heights will begin to fall as a negatively-tilted shortwave trough closes off over Minnesota accompanied by sfc cyclone tracking into Canada with a cold front advancing into Lower Michigan overnight.
An analysis of model soundings and other model-generated severe weather probability guidance suggests the greatest chance for severe weather tonight will be across the western forecast area near the Lake Michigan shore. A line of storms in western Iowa at 330 PM EDT is progged to expand and move east, crossing Lake Michigan. Main threat for our nearshore waters and western forecast area is for downburst winds but transient QLCS mesocyclone circulations cannot be ruled out, resulting in enhanced swaths of higher winds and even a quick tornado.
Model soundings suggest instability decreases as the storms move east and some of the model guidance show a corresponding weakening of the line of storms before they reach Grand Rapids.
The front becomes more parallel to the environmental winds on Wednesday slowing and stalling near or south of the forecast area with lingering showers possible near JXN during Wednesday.
- Dry for Wednesday and Thursday; Rain Chances Return Friday
Good forecast certainty remains for a dry Wednesday and Thursday and this will be accompanied by much more seasonal highs in the 70s.
Humidity will be substantially less oppressive too with dewpoints dropping into the 50s and then 40s by Thursday.
GOES satellite water vapor channels show an upper PV maximum currently diving southward into the Pacific Northwest region. This feature will eventually emerge as a cyclonically breaking upper wave over the Upper Mississippi valley region Friday afternoon/evening.
Strong upper divergence with this feature will support a solid coverage of showers and storms pushing eastward into our forecast area Friday night, although the best QG forcing should remain well northwest of our area. This combined with nocturnal stabilization should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms.
- Rain Chances Linger Through the Holiday Weekend
Unfortunately, forecast details for Memorial Day weekend remain quite uncertain. A brief lull in precipitation for at least part of Saturday seems probable, but that's about as definitive as I want to get right now. Starting Saturday afternoon, PoPs for the rest of the holiday weekend look to be in the neighborhood of 20 percent, which is right around climatology. High temperatures will be quite close to climatology as well in the neighborhood of low 70s.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 748 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
This set of terminal forecasts features a fairly significant change from previous thinking with regards to thunderstorms later tonight. This change is dropping thunder wording altogether at all of the sites except KMKG, where we went with a VCTS.
Convection is not as widespread or strong as thought earlier. The latest model trends give us increasing confidence that the convection out to our west may just clip the NW portion of our area. It will be a close call at KMKG, thus the reason with VCTS there.
The biggest impact will likely be some MVFR cloud cover that will move in near the cold front late tonight and first thing Wednesday morning. A few showers will be possible with the actual front, then just clouds. The clouds will then lift and break up Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will increase late this evening from the SSW with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. The winds will generally stay up most of the rest of the forecast period, becoming more from the SW on Wednesday.
MARINE
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. In addition to strong southwest winds from the tightening pressure gradient, there could be gusts over 50 knots tonight as a squall line moves across Lake Michigan, arriving in the nearshore area around midnight.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 1 mi | 18 min | SE 17G | 79°F | 29.56 | 64°F | ||
| 45161 | 2 mi | 38 min | 1 ft | |||||
| 45029 | 23 mi | 28 min | S 9.7G | 71°F | 59°F | 1 ft | 62°F | |
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 32 mi | 48 min | SE 8.9G | 83°F | 65°F | 29.60 | 49°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMKG MUSKEGON COUNTY,MI | 7 sm | 23 min | SSE 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 63°F | 48% | 29.61 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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