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LOZ044 Expires:202405180300;;384796 Fzus51 Kbuf 172027 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 426 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-180300- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 426 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then a chance of showers late. Patchy fog from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 172345 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 745 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain showers return this evening as a low pressure system slowly moves in from the west, lasting into Saturday afternoon.
A stretch of welcomed dry and warm weather is expected from Sunday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
650 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to PoPs the next several hours slowing down the advancing showers currently over far western parts of the CWA with drier air still in place farther east and decent dew point depressions. Thunder chances were also reduced over the next few hours with little in the way of shear and instability in place, but kept slight chances in around the Finger Lakes to near SYR.

Previous Discussion: A pretty nice spring afternoon across the area with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A shortwave trough currently over Michigan will move into the region later this evening. A plume of deep moisture is showing up in guidance from the surface to 500mb along the leading edge of the trough. This will bring rain showers to the western part of the CWA by mid-evening, spreading from west to east. This rain will have to battle mid-level dry air currently over the region so its progression eastward will be slow. Also slowing the progression will be high pressure building into the region from Nova Scotia. This allows the surface low to slow to a crawl as it spins over western NY. This, combined with the ESE flow from the low spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast pumping in low level moisture to the region will allow for rain to fall into the Saturday morning. Rain should taper off starting mid morning as dry air works its way into the area from the north and the surface low dissipates. The last of the shower chances should push south of the area late afternoon. Total rainfall looks to be between 0.1 and 0,5 inches, with areas west of I-81 seeing the higher totals. Cloudy and cooler on Saturday thanks to the cloud cover, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across the region. Calm conditions last into Saturday night, with temperatures in the low to mid 50s and some patchy valley fog in the Twin Tiers and Catskills.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
342 PM Update

This period will feature generally quiet weather, with a significant warming trend. A strengthening upper level ridge moves into the area on Sunday. The flow in the low and mid levels will be northerly, but drier air will be advecting over the area. Overall, this should lead to mostly sunny skies after a few lingering morning clouds.Cannot rule out a stray shower over the higher elevations, but with the dry air advecting into the region, kept PoPs below mentionable levels. With plenty of sunshine expected, highs are progged to reach well into the 70s, with a few spots near 80. High pressure remains in control Sunday night, Monday and right into Monday night. This will continue the stretch of dry and mostly clear weather. Upper level heights and temperatures continue to rise over the forecast area as the ridge strengthens. Overall, humidity levels remain on the lower side, mainly at or below 60F. As surface winds turn light southerly, temperatures are now forecast to soar into the upper 70s to mid-80s Monday afternoon, only falling into the 50s to low 60s overnight; these numbers are about 10-15 degrees above average levels.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
342 PM Update

This period starts off with another mainly dry day on Tuesday, as the upper level ridge remains in place over the region. Can't rule out a stray afternoon/evening thunderstorm over the Finger Lakes region, otherwise it will be mostly sunny and very warm. As 850mb temperatures are progged to reach +15C, daytime highs soar into the low to mid-80s in for most locations; dew points still in the 50s to near 60 will keep humidity levels down.

Overall, the latest guidance is slowing the next frontal system down slightly. This means warmer temperatures could linger longer into the middle of next week. As the upper level ridge very gradually breaks down and shifts east, this will open the door for a shortwave disturbance to kick off some scattered showers and t'storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, with partly sunny skies and a southerly breeze (6-12 mph) temperature again look to reach the low to mid-80s over the area. There remain some timing differences in the latest guidance, but the frontal passage is looking more likely to be sometime on Thursday now with this forecast update.
Therefore, just out ahead the front temperatures could still reach the mid-70s to around 80 degrees. The potential is there for higher levels of shear and instability; with scattered to numerous showers and t'storms along and ahead of the front expected. By Friday, the upper level trough should be moving into our area, with cooler temperatures (back near average) and a low chance for a few rain showers too.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening, before MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings are expected to move in later tonight/early Saturday morning for all terminals except for KSYR and KRME. For KSYR, MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected to hold off until after 13Z, while KRME is currently expected to remain VFR. Similar to the last set of TAFs, while model guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings at all terminals except for KSYR and KRME, confidence is only high enough to include at only KELM. Rain showers are expected to accompany these ceiling restrictions, but aren't expected to bring visbys any worse than MVFR.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible by Wednesday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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