Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 2:23 PM   Moonset 2:49 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202405180915;;396565 Fzus63 Kmkx 180137 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 837 pm cdt Fri may 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light winds will continue tonight under the western edge of high pressure of 30.0 inches centered over the eastern united states. Southerly winds will pick up a bit on Saturday ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. Winds will switch to northerly on Sunday behind the trough, as high pressure of 30.0 inches moves back into the area. Breezy southerly winds will return to the area for Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system.
areas of fog will likely continue across roughly the southern half of the lake tonight, winding down Saturday morning. Will continue to Monitor Satellite trends to determine if the current advisory will need to be extended past 09z tonight.
lmz080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-180915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 837 pm cdt Fri may 17 2024
two rivers wi to manistee mi south - .
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Saturday - .
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to south. Patchy dense fog. Waves 1 ft or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 180155 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 955 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Summerlike Weekend

- Low Chance for Rain Sunday

- Active Early to Mid-Week Period

- Cooler End of the Week

UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

High pressure situated across the area this evening will bring quiet weather now that the afternoon/evening convection is diurnally fading. We are not expecting much more than an isolated showers near Highway 127 for another hour or so.

The main concern tonight is the extent of stratus and fog. Fog remains in place over much of eastern Lake Michigan along our shoreline. This fog will likely begin to spill inland overnight as there will be an increase in southwest flow. Areas of fog are certainly expected tonight with dense fog possible, especially towards Lake Michigan. Going forecast had things well in hand, so no real changes were made.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

- Summerlike Weekend

Isolated/pulsing convection continuing through sunset in pattern resembling mid-summer more than spring, featuring a weakly sheared environment with respectable SB Capes of around 1500 J/KG.

Diurnally-peaking, random pop-up showers and storms will tend to favor low level convergence zones and current radar/satellite shows one such zone extending from AZO to mbS. Some of these could contain small hail and briefly intense downpours though mid evening per recent radar trends.

Once diurnal clouds/convection fade after sunset, patchy fog/stratus is a good bet again tonight given elevated dew pts and light winds. Locally dense fog is possible, especially near Lk MI and in spots where any locally heavy downpours occur today.

Diurnal pop-up convection less likely on Saturday due to rising heights and general subsidence pattern with sfc high in place.
Very summerlike start to the weekend after fog/stratus burns off with highs in the lower 80s inland from Lk MI. There is a small chance of showers/storms late Saturday night north and west of GRR, related to a weakening band of convection moving southeast from WI. Highs Sunday reaching the mid 80s which is more than 10 degrees above normal.

- Low Chance for Rain Sunday

Dry conditions carry into Sunday morning, then a weak front moving across northern Michigan will sweep through the area acting as a trigger point for showers Sunday afternoon. Limited moisture leads to only a slight chance for precipitation, but widely scattered showers or storms look possible.

- Active Early to Mid-Week Period

Better chances for precipitation are expected for the start of the work week as a stronger upper level trough becomes established to our west. Moisture advects into the region while several shortwaves ride the larger upper level trough through the region. While showers and storms are possible Monday, the better environment for storms is expected Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move northeast from the Southern Plains into Wisconsin with a trailing cold front sweeping through the state. Ahead of that front, Michigan will sit in the warm sector with a moist and very unstable atmosphere. Shear will also be plentiful as a low level Jet noses into region Tuesday evening. Uncertainty remains, but Tuesday will be a day to monitor the thunderstorm activity and possible severe weather.

- Cooler End of the Week

Following the passage of the cold front Tuesday temperatures turn colder to end the week. Uncertainty on how cool we'll get increases the latter half of the week, but the general idea centers around upper troughing settling over the region with an 850mb thermal trough driving down into Michigan. Current forecast expects peak temperatures a touch below normal (normal highs are around 70 degrees) in the upper 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 651 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

No significant changes in the outgoing forecast. Scattered showers,and isolated thunderstorms containing heavy rain, will continue through sunset with coverage to low to put in the TAFs with this package. MKG presently has fog nearby due to dense fog over the lake. While occasional drops to IFR are possible this evening, confidence in when are to low to justify a TEMPO group so have elected to keep just VCFG. After 06z, fog becomes more widespread with MKG and JXN expected to reach LIFR, GRR and LAN IFR, and AZO and BTL MVFR. Fog will dissipate after sunrise tomorrow with VFR conditions persisting after dissipation through the end of the TAF window. West winds of 5-10 knots this evening become light to calm tonight before becoming southwest at 5-10 knots tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Fog has been plaguing much of the cool nearshore waters today and while marine fog trends are very difficult to forecast, current model guidance suggests it will stick around in one form or another through at least Saturday morning. Have therefore extended/expanded the Marine Dense Fog Advisory through Noon Saturday. Otherwise winds/waves staying well below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for MIZ050- 056-057-064-071.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.

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