Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 6:04 PM   Moonset 3:29 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 432 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Friday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 59 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 210846 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 446 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mid-summer warmth will be upon the Lower Lakes today with well above normal temperatures and elevated humidity levels. With the mild conditions and humidity today it will also support some showers and thunderstorm well inland from the lakes. A greater threat for showers and storms arrives Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend. Unsettle weather then makes a return on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The main complex of showers and storms associated with the convectively enhance shortwave tracking across Lake Huron will largely stay to the north western New York. There will be a few showers that work across the open waters of Lake Ontario this morning, which will then potentially impact areas east of Lake Ontario later on, especially across the St. Lawrence River valley. This is captured fairly well by hi-res guidance.

Otherwise...mid-summer warmth will be upon us today with temperatures more typical of July than late May. Highs today will once again soar into the mid to upper 80s. We even potentially could hit the 90F in a few locales, especially in the Genesee Valley.
There will also be some showers and storms to contend with again as the shortwave mentioned early passes to our north this afternoon.
Similar to yesterday....the best shot to see a shower or storm will be found well inland from the cooler stable lakes, especially from the Southern Tier northeast across the Finger Lakes into the North Country.

Tonight...with the loss of daytime heating most showers and storms will fall apart with dry weather expected across the region. Muggy (dwpts in the 60s) and mild night with mercury reading found in the mid to upper 60s by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Well within the warm sector of a system tracking across the Great Lakes, Wednesday will be another warm day with increasing humidity.
Out ahead of an approaching cold front, a pre-frontal trough will push across the forecast area from around lunchtime through the early evening hours. CAPE values for Wednesday afternoon approaching 2,000 J/kg, especially south of Lake Ontario. Instability levels combined with the trough will result in showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially inland from the lakes. The Storm Prediction Center does have most of the area under a 'Slight Risk' for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. With instability across the area, showers/thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough as well as daytime heating increases through the morning. Large scale shear values seem to be a bit on the lower side with guidance suggesting less than 30 knots of shear during the peak, HOWEVER, a remnant Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) will be tracking into/across the area, and these system tend to have increased shear within the system itself that modeling has a hard time to pick up on sometimes. Luckily this is a decaying MCV that should hopefully limit the severe potential vs a more organized system. DCAPE values nearing 750 J/kg will support the potential for strong wind gusts.
Temperatures on the day will warm to the lower 80s over the higher terrain to near 90 for the lower elevations.

Wednesday night, showers and some thunderstorms will linger into the mid-evening hours over the eastern portions of the area as the trough is exiting the region. There should be a break in the showers for most of the night ahead of the cold front. With daytime heating not in play, instability levels will lower overnight. As the cold front crosses the region during the second half of the night and toward daybreak on Thursday some showers will be possible, especially inland from the lakes. There may be just enough lingering instability along with forcing from the front to cause a few thunderstorms. Shear values do increase some with the frontal passage, but not expecting much in the way of thunderstorm potential. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop to the low to mid 60s.

Thursday and Thursday night, some showers will linger into the morning, mainly for the eastern third of the area. Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast behind the departing cold front and as drier air moves into the region. A cooler day on Thursday with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 60s to upper 70s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. Thursday night, lows will dip down to the low to mid 50s across the entire area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Dry conditions to start the period before a trough and sfc low track across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. A warm front tracking toward the region out ahead of the sfc low will start to increase showers potential for Friday night. Showers continue through Saturday night as a few disturbances track northeast around a weak trough over the Great Lakes.

Fair conditions expected for Sunday as high pressure tracks across the region.

The next round of showers approaches late Sunday night/Monday morning as another trough and sfc low track across the region.

Temperatures for the period will be in the low to upper 70s for most of the area with the cooler temperatures across the higher terrain and the warmer temperatures over the lower elevations.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
There is a low end chance of a shower or storm as a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches and then begins to pass to our north overnight into this morning. If a shower or storm did make it into our region tied to the shortwave it would only briefly impact KIAG or KROC
Otherwise
most terminals will continue to see VFR.

VFR and light winds will continue today, there will be some afternoon and evening storms across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and then northeast into the North Country.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario overnight. There will also be a low end chance of a shower or thunderstorm as a weak wave approaches and then begins to pass to the north of Lake Ontario.

South winds develop and pick up a bit today as a cold front to our west begins to approach the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will remain below small craft levels. Low pressure will sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday but winds and waves look like it will remain below small craft conditions for the rest of the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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