Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 6:42 PM   Moonset 4:05 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 705 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - ..small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday afternoon - .
Today - East wind 10 knots veering southeast in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Widespread dense fog in the morning, then areas of dense fog late in the morning. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots becoming south 15 to 25 knots in the late evening and early morning, then veering southwest early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the morning. Wednesday - Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. Wednesday night - West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 210948 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 448 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will persist across south central and eastern Wisconsin through sunrise this morning.

- Marine Dense Fog early this morning across the southern half of Lake Michigan is expected to continue through this evening.

- A complex severe weather event is expected today, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected. The greatest severe weather threat continues to be this evening.

- All severe weather hazards will be possible this evening, including strong winds, large to very large hail, and tornadoes.

SHORT TERM
Issued 448 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today and Tonight:

A busy, rain and stormy, day is in store for Wisconsin today.
The Storm Predictions Center's Severe weather outlook does a good job of reflecting this busy day with a Moderate Rick (4 out of 5 risk) covering portions of southwestern Wisconsin.

With high dewpoints this morning and cooling temperatures, fog has developed across the forecast area with many locations experiencing dense fog. As southerly winds increase and diurnal heating kicks in after sunrise this fog should burn off rather quickly.

Kicking the rain/storm discussion off early this morning there is ongoing convection across northeast Iowa and far western Wisconsin. This ongoing convection is on the leading edge of the Low level jet. Much of this early morning convection is well ahead of these features and is slowly moving northeast.
Southwestern and western Wisconsin will have the best chances the ongoing and slightly developing blob of showers/storms this morning. Much of eastern and southeastern Wisconsin will remain dry with this morning "round".

This afternoon and evening will be the main concerns for any severe weather to develop. The afternoon round of storms will likely be along the leading edge of the warm front. As warm moist air surges northward a few showers and storms are likely to develop. The exact location that storms could fire is a bit muddled due to many models have a very shallow cap in place which limits the location and coverage of any convection during the afternoon. This cap does look to be pretty weak, which means anything that does break it could grow quickly. Strong to severe storms during this afternoon would mostly pose a wind and hail threat. A brief lull between this afternoon and evening rounds will prep the stage for the severe weather potential this evening.

As the cold front passes later this evening the next round of rain and storms will move through. Timing with this has the cold front beginning to move through as early as 6 PM with it exiting the region as late as midnight. While the exact outcome will depend on the duration of the lull between the passage of the warm front and cold front. The air mass in place and the dynamics within this strengthening low pressure system are fantastic. This means that supercells and squall line storm modes are on the table. Lapse rates are steep, CAPE is high, and low level shear/helicity is also very good. Hodographs continue to show the nice curved features you would be looking for on days with good tornado potential. Overall the threat with this evening round is strong winds, large hail and tornadoes.

Patterson

LONG TERM
Issued 448 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

As the low pressure system bringing all of our rain and storms today moves northeast across Lake Superior and into Canada, high pressure will be on its heals for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper level ridging will be building into the Midwest Wednesday afternoon and will continue to influence the region through Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain tight between the exiting low and incoming high pressure resulting in some gusty west winds, and decent cold air advection. Cloud cover should be decreasing throughout the day Wednesday. Considering the warmer temperatures over the previous few days, Wednesday is likely to feel much cooler with the 70 degree high temperatures feeling slight deceiving for some.

Dry weather will continue through Friday morning. Precipitation chances will increase as the next approaching shortwave moves toward the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. There is still quiet a bit of uncertainty with this system especially with timing and strength. The GFS is still pretty rambunctious in comparisonsto other long range models. Its likely that timing of rain will tighten up a bit and that some of the finer details such as QPF and exact location as this system gets closer in time.

Another shortwave looks to be on the horizon as well for Saturdaywhich could be yet another round of showers and storms. Almost like a round two if you will. Showers and storms Friday into Saturday and again Saturday will be supported by two separate shortwave troughs. Still a lot of details to be hashed out here. Thankfully Sunday continues to show promise for being dry as a weak ridge quickly moves through the Great Lakes Region.

Patterson

AVIATION
Issued 448 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR to LIFR conditions are expected through the period. Early this morning for south central and eastern Wisconsin there is dense fog that dropping visibilites down to a mile or less.
Many terminals will see quarter mile visibilities with ceilings around 200 to 500 feet until after sunrise this morning.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected to move through southern Wisconsin today. The first of these round moving through this morning. Ongoing convection to our west is gradually moving northeast this morning. Areas of west central and south central Wisconsin will have the best chance for showers and storms with this morning round, while the rest of southern Wisconsin remains dry. MVFR fusillades and ceilings will be possible during this round of showers/storms.

There is a small chance for an afternoon round of showers and storms as the warm front moves through. MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible any of the moderate to heavy rainfall. Then the last round would be this evening along the cold front. Again MVFR to IFR visiblies will be possible. For both of these rounds ceilings are expected to be around 3-6 kft. Severe storms will be possible for both the afternoon and evening rounds with large hail, strong winds and tornadoes all being possible.

Southwest to southeast winds are expected today. These southerly winds will increase becoming breezy this afternoon. The breezy south winds will persist through Wednesday morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts likely. Stronger gusts will be possible with any convection.

Patterson

MARINE
Issued 448 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

With dewpoints near the air and water temperatures across the southern half of the Lake this morning dense fog has developed.
As dewpoints increase with the passage of the warm front later today, its likely that the dense fog will persist until the cold front moves across the open waters, bringing with it rain and thunderstorms.

South to southeast winds this morning will become breezy as a deepening low pressure system advance from the central plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes Region. There will be periods of thunderstorms over the lake, especially the southern portions through Wednesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight through Wednesday morning due to the gusty southerly winds.

High pressure will build into the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday bringing quieter winds and waves through midweek.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Dense Fog Advisory
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070- WIZ071-WIZ072 until 10 AM Tuesday.

LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644...10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.

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