Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:24 PM   Moonset 2:52 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 172323 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
With an upper level disturbance close to the region, it will be partly to mostly cloudy for tonight into Saturday, with a few spotty showers around. Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday. Above normal warmth is expected for much of next week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms returning by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Clouds have spread across the region with light onshore flow.
There may be a few breaks in the clouds from time to time but mostly cloudy to cloudy most areas through the night. A few showers could affect the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks as rain in western NY drifts east and tends to weaken and dry up as it pushes east. A few minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A coastal low continues to slowly spin offshore the mid Atlantic States for today. Meanwhile, another upper level disturbance is starting to approach from the west. Enough upper level ridging and a weak high pressure area northeast of the area continues to keep dry and quiet weather in place. Skies will generally trend towards mostly cloudy for late in the day into this evening. A few brief sprinkles are possible across the Adirondacks (perhaps parts of the Mohawk Valley, Sacandaga Region, and the Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls areas too), but any precip looks very light and brief.

Radar imagery shows a large batch of showers over western New York associated with the approaching upper level disturbance.
However, this feature will be moving fairly slowly and weakening as it heads eastward. Based on CAMs and radar trends, most of this precip will be diminishing as it heads eastward. Western and southern areas could see a few showers by late in the overnight, but most areas will be staying dry for tonight.
Overall, skies will be trending towards mostly cloudy to overcast with the increasing mid and high level clouds from the west.

Temps overnight will mainly be in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible across the high terrain of western New England.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
On Saturday, the weak upper level disturbance to the west will be passing across the region. Moisture with this feature looks fairly limited and the best coverage of showers will mainly be to the west and southwest. In addition, the slow moving coastal low wobbling offshore may spread some moisture towards eastern New England, although this activity looks to generally stay to our east. Overall, while it looks fairly cloudy on Saturday, precip looks spotty for our area, with just slight to low chances across western, northern and far northeastern parts of the area. Any showers look brief and light, and most spots should be staying dry through the day. The clouds may hold temps down a tad, but it will still be comfortable and seasonable, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Some clearing will finally occur by Saturday night as both disturbances finally starting moving away, with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level ridging will be nosing into the area from the southwest for Sunday into Sunday night. This will allow for a partly to mostly clear sky. With warm temps aloft, it will be milder on Sunday, with highs well into the 70s in most spots.
Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s. It will continue to stay dry and quiet into Sunday night with a mostly clear sky and temps in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Much warmer temperatures are expected through the long term period.

A sharp upper level ridge will be in place over the area for the start of the week. Strong southwest flow aloft will allowing for warming temps, with 850 hpa temps going from +13 C on Monday towards +16 C by the middle of the week. Valley highs to look reach into the 80s, especially by Tues/Wed when highs may reach the middle 80s across the area.

It should be rain-free for both Monday and Tuesday, although dewpoints will be rising towards 60 by the middle of the week.
Skies look fairly sunny on Monday and Tuesday with the ridging in place and no precip is expected.

By Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level ridge will be starting to shift eastward as an upper level disturbance and frontal boundary approaches from the west. This will allow for a threat for showers and thunderstorms both days, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. It's too early to say how strong storms will be, as it will depend on the front's timing and available instability, but we will continue to monitor.
Temps will continue to be warm in the 80s each day and it will be a little of muggy side as well.

Behind the departing front, somewhat cooler and drier air will move back into the region for Friday. Still, it looks warm with temps well into the 70s. With an upper level trough overhead, there will still be some clouds and perhaps a brief shower for northern areas, but most areas should be dry.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR ceilings will prevail tonight through Saturday afternoon with a weak upper disturbance tracking north of our region.
Clouds should prevent fog from forming tonight and into early Saturday morning, so visibilities are expected to be VFR as well. There could be some isolated showers in the KPOU area during the day Saturday but too isolated to mention in the TAF.

Light northeast to southeast winds at 6 Kt or less tonight, continuing through Saturday morning and afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Fri -- 01:14 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:22 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
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Fri -- 01:06 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:14 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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