Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 2:12 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 180155 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 955 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Summerlike Weekend

- Low Chance for Rain Sunday

- Active Early to Mid-Week Period

- Cooler End of the Week

UPDATE
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

High pressure situated across the area this evening will bring quiet weather now that the afternoon/evening convection is diurnally fading. We are not expecting much more than an isolated showers near Highway 127 for another hour or so.

The main concern tonight is the extent of stratus and fog. Fog remains in place over much of eastern Lake Michigan along our shoreline. This fog will likely begin to spill inland overnight as there will be an increase in southwest flow. Areas of fog are certainly expected tonight with dense fog possible, especially towards Lake Michigan. Going forecast had things well in hand, so no real changes were made.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

- Summerlike Weekend

Isolated/pulsing convection continuing through sunset in pattern resembling mid-summer more than spring, featuring a weakly sheared environment with respectable SB Capes of around 1500 J/KG.

Diurnally-peaking, random pop-up showers and storms will tend to favor low level convergence zones and current radar/satellite shows one such zone extending from AZO to mbS. Some of these could contain small hail and briefly intense downpours though mid evening per recent radar trends.

Once diurnal clouds/convection fade after sunset, patchy fog/stratus is a good bet again tonight given elevated dew pts and light winds. Locally dense fog is possible, especially near Lk MI and in spots where any locally heavy downpours occur today.

Diurnal pop-up convection less likely on Saturday due to rising heights and general subsidence pattern with sfc high in place.
Very summerlike start to the weekend after fog/stratus burns off with highs in the lower 80s inland from Lk MI. There is a small chance of showers/storms late Saturday night north and west of GRR, related to a weakening band of convection moving southeast from WI. Highs Sunday reaching the mid 80s which is more than 10 degrees above normal.

- Low Chance for Rain Sunday

Dry conditions carry into Sunday morning, then a weak front moving across northern Michigan will sweep through the area acting as a trigger point for showers Sunday afternoon. Limited moisture leads to only a slight chance for precipitation, but widely scattered showers or storms look possible.

- Active Early to Mid-Week Period

Better chances for precipitation are expected for the start of the work week as a stronger upper level trough becomes established to our west. Moisture advects into the region while several shortwaves ride the larger upper level trough through the region. While showers and storms are possible Monday, the better environment for storms is expected Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move northeast from the Southern Plains into Wisconsin with a trailing cold front sweeping through the state. Ahead of that front, Michigan will sit in the warm sector with a moist and very unstable atmosphere. Shear will also be plentiful as a low level Jet noses into region Tuesday evening. Uncertainty remains, but Tuesday will be a day to monitor the thunderstorm activity and possible severe weather.

- Cooler End of the Week

Following the passage of the cold front Tuesday temperatures turn colder to end the week. Uncertainty on how cool we'll get increases the latter half of the week, but the general idea centers around upper troughing settling over the region with an 850mb thermal trough driving down into Michigan. Current forecast expects peak temperatures a touch below normal (normal highs are around 70 degrees) in the upper 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 651 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

No significant changes in the outgoing forecast. Scattered showers,and isolated thunderstorms containing heavy rain, will continue through sunset with coverage to low to put in the TAFs with this package. MKG presently has fog nearby due to dense fog over the lake. While occasional drops to IFR are possible this evening, confidence in when are to low to justify a TEMPO group so have elected to keep just VCFG. After 06z, fog becomes more widespread with MKG and JXN expected to reach LIFR, GRR and LAN IFR, and AZO and BTL MVFR. Fog will dissipate after sunrise tomorrow with VFR conditions persisting after dissipation through the end of the TAF window. West winds of 5-10 knots this evening become light to calm tonight before becoming southwest at 5-10 knots tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Fog has been plaguing much of the cool nearshore waters today and while marine fog trends are very difficult to forecast, current model guidance suggests it will stick around in one form or another through at least Saturday morning. Have therefore extended/expanded the Marine Dense Fog Advisory through Noon Saturday. Otherwise winds/waves staying well below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for MIZ050- 056-057-064-071.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.

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