Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 5:47 PM   Moonset 3:13 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405210330;;559317 Fzus51 Kbuf 202032 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 432 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-210330- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 432 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 210752 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 352 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the region today will slowly give way to a cold frontal passage Wednesday and Thursday with a threat of strong thunderstorms. This front will settle south of the region giving us a short break Friday before pushing northward again this weekend with additional chances of showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will move off the east coast gradually through tonight. This will result in a continued warming trend through Wednesday with southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 both today and on Wednesday. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's tonight.

The one wrinkle today looks to be a weak mid-level disturbance moving across central New York this afternoon and evening. Lift and moisture look fairly limited but enough to spark off isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

After a break in the action early Wednesday a frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,500 J/KG. Model soundings continue to show steep low and even somewhat steep mid level lapse rates. Some mid-level dry air also looks to be present as well later Wednesday. 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be on the weaker side which works against the possibility of strong to severe storms at only 20-30 knots.

Most modeling does indicate that will be enough shear though for some thunderstorms to develop during the mid and late afternoon hours and organize into a few clusters. These clusters of thunderstorms have the potential for some gusty winds and hail as well.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
350 AM update...

Scattered showers and potentially a few stronger thunderstorms are expected to continue into the early evening hours Wednesday night before becoming more isolated in nature later on with the loss of daytime heating. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s and with dew points not much lower than the actual temperature, it will have a little bit of a muggy feel to it. The cold front responsible for the convection late Wednesday will stall out across NE PA and the southern Catskills Thursday. A weak surface low will move northeast along the boundary aiding in the development of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms with the convection most concentrated near the boundary. Dew points in this area will reach the mid 60s and shear values look decent, but CAPE and mid-level lapse rates are not as high compared to late Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Highs Thursday will be generally in the 70s, but near 80 degrees in the Wyoming Valley and southern Sullivan County.

Cooler, drier air will filter in Thursday night and skies will be clearing out as surface high pressure builds in. Lows Thursday night will fall back into the 50s. Friday looks largely dry with some sunshine and a comfortably warm afternoon with dew points in the 50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s in some valley locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
350 AM update...

Later Friday night through Saturday features a low chance (25%-40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms as a upper level shortwave lifts northeastward toward our area. Some additional moisture may try to stream in from the north from a broad shortwave trough that is expected to pass by to our north and west. Sunday looks dry before an area of low pressure and associated cold front brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms back into the area Monday. Highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s at night. Monday's highs look to be a little lower from the upper 60s into the low and mid 70s.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is a small chance for fog briefly at ELM from 06-13Z today.
However, at this time it does not appear ELM will reach crossover temperature, so left fog out of the forecast for now.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Patchy early morning valley fog possible. Also isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms around.

Friday and Saturday...VFR expected. Moderate to high confidence.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Albany
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Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Tue -- 04:06 AM EDT     5.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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Albany, NY,