Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Kingsville, OH
May 17, 2024 9:35 PM EDT (01:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 1:58 PM Moonset 2:24 AM |
LEZ168 Expires:202405180215;;381871 Fzus61 Kcle 171939 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 339 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - High pressure 30.00 inches will build back across the lake for the weekend. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Monday. Low pressure 29.30 inches will target the northwest great lakes for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
lez061-168-169-180215- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 339 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. A slight chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night - East winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 339 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez061-168-169-180215- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 339 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 180001 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 754 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure aloft will slowly push a cold front across the region tonight and Saturday. The front will wash out over the Appalachians late Saturday followed by high pressure building in Saturday night. The high will remain in control through Tuesday before low pressure and a cold front approach by Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
7:54 PM EDT Update...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms along/near a weak surface trough axis (i.e. weak low-level convergence zone) in vicinity of a roughly Mansfield, OH to Meadville, PA corridor are weakening as the boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. Expect convection, including that approaching from southeastern Lower MI at time of writing, to dissipate by roughly midnight tonight and be followed by fair weather region-wide into Saturday due to the following: Continued boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling through daybreak and eventual arrival of a stabilizing surface ridge from the west and north. The current forecast reflects these expectations fairly well, overall. Will let the upcoming overnight shift reevaluate continued trends in obs and model guidance, and determine whether significant changes to POP's are required for Saturday.
The other concern is nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low- level moisture, including that from recent rainfall, and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient will likely promote the development/downward expansion of widespread stratus and radiation fog development late this evening and especially Saturday morning. For example, recent runs of the HRRR and NBM support this expectation. Model guidance also indicates limited nocturnal cooling/resulting reduction in surface dew point depressions may allow advection fog to develop over Lake Erie overnight tonight, especially east of roughly Avon Point, OH. The forecast was updated to reflect these expectations. Will continue to monitor latest trends in obs and model guidance for the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory. Any fog should dissipate by late Saturday morning or early afternoon, when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer, especially over land, taps into drier air aloft. However, some NWP models suggest advection fog over Lake Erie may linger well into Saturday. Please see discussion below for further details.
Previous Discussion from 3:55 PM EDT...
A weak but broad mid/upper trough remains across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon, with associated weak surface low pressure just south of James Bay extending a cold front through Lower Michigan and Indiana. Synoptic forcing and deep layer wind profiles are very weak, but upper-level diffluence and the right entrance region of a 75-85 knot H3 jet streak lifting through the southern Great Lakes generated widespread shower activity this morning since plenty of low-level moisture is in place. The steadiest showers are currently exiting far eastern Ohio and western PA coincident with the aforementioned jet streak lifting out of the region, but breaks in the cloud cover are generating weak to moderate instability characterized by SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg in NW and north central Ohio. This combined with continued low-level moisture (dew points low/mid 60s) and upper diffluence and low-level confluence ahead of the cold front is supporting the development of diurnal convection. Doppler radar and visible satellite loops show most of this developing from north central Ohio through the central highlands at the time, but development is also taking place in Lower Michigan away from the lakes. With all of this in mind, all areas could see passing showers or thundershowers this afternoon and evening, but the greatest potential is over the southern and eastern counties from roughly Mt. Vernon to Youngstown, so put the highest PoPs there through the evening. Since the flow aloft is weak, deep layer shear values will only be 10-15 knots, so severe weather is not expected. The only concern with the convection will be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized, nuisance flooding. PWATs remain in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range in much of the area which is around the 90th percentile of daily climatology for the date, and RAP forecast soundings show fairly tall, skinny CAPE with freezing levels a little above 700 mb. This combined with the weak flow profile and the flow parallel to the front will allow for some slow moving convective cells with efficient rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Any issues would likely be if convection can train.
The weak mid/upper trough axis will further weaken and move east of the region tonight and Saturday allowing shortwave ridging and broad surface high pressure to nudge in from the west by Saturday night, but it looks to be a slow process since two northern and southern stream weak troughs are pretty separated from the main jets aloft.
This will cause the weak cold front to slowly progress east and southeast across the region tonight and Saturday before washing out near the Appalachians. Most areas will dry out tonight, but with the front and associated low-level moisture taking their time exiting on Saturday, diurnally driven convection will develop again from late morning through the afternoon, mainly east of I-77. Coverage should however be less than today, but locally heavy downpours could occur.
All areas will dry out Saturday night as the high builds in.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to around 60, with highs Saturday in the upper 70s/low 80s in NW and north central Ohio where more sunshine occurs, but mid 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid/upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The weather pattern will shift to a hotter and more summer like for later this weekend into early next week. An upper level ridge of high pressure will develop and expand over the Ohio Valley region Sunday and Monday. The main storm track will shift northward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region for a few days. With high pressure in control, we will expect fair weather conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Sunday afternoon will range from the lower to middle 80s. There could be a light lake breeze Sunday afternoon closer to the lakeshore that may keep temperatures in the upper 70s. We will add another degree or two for Monday afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80s. We should stay dry Sunday through Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to remain in control of our weather on Tuesday keeping us very warm and dry. Temperatures will be once again in the middle to upper 80s. By Tuesday night, the upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to break down and a series of shortwave troughs will swing through the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week. A slow moving cold front will start to slide into the Lower Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley region late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will also be slightly cooler with the rain chances in the area Wednesday through early Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Mainly VFR expected through 00Z/Sun. Aloft, a weak trough axis moves E'ward through our region between ~09Z/Sat and ~18Z/Sat.
Otherwise ridging precedes and follows the trough. At the surface, a weak trough affects our region through ~12Z/Sat.
Thereafter, a weak ridge builds from the west and north through 00Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend variable around 5 knots through the TAF period. However, a NW'erly to NE'erly lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots is expected to affect locations within several miles of Lake Erie from ~15Z/Sat through 00Z/Sun.
This includes KCLE and KERI.
A few showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are expected along/near a weak low-level convergence zone accompanying the aforementioned surface trough, especially before ~04Z/Sat. This convergence zone is expected to reside near a KFDY to KMFD to KGKJ corridor. Fair weather is likely region-wide after ~12Z/Sat.
Widespread low clouds and associated VFR ceilings early this evening are expected to expand and lower via nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low-level moisture. As a result, widespread MVFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to develop by this late evening or early Saturday morning. These low clouds are then expected to scatter-out or dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into drier air aloft late Saturday morning or early afternoon. Widespread mist and fog, and associated MVFR to LIFR visibility, are expected to develop late this evening or early Saturday morning. Mist/fog should then dissipate via the onset of diurnal heating by midday Saturday at the latest.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but especially Monday night through Wednesday.
MARINE
Overall the weather forecast for Lake Erie will remain quiet this weekend into early next week. High pressure will return over the lake this weekend with a light northeast flow under 10 knots for the weekend. A warm front will lift across the lake Monday with a return of southeast flow over the lake. Southerly flow will continue to increase up to 15 knots Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system that will move through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week. No marine headlines are expected at this time.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 754 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure aloft will slowly push a cold front across the region tonight and Saturday. The front will wash out over the Appalachians late Saturday followed by high pressure building in Saturday night. The high will remain in control through Tuesday before low pressure and a cold front approach by Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
7:54 PM EDT Update...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms along/near a weak surface trough axis (i.e. weak low-level convergence zone) in vicinity of a roughly Mansfield, OH to Meadville, PA corridor are weakening as the boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. Expect convection, including that approaching from southeastern Lower MI at time of writing, to dissipate by roughly midnight tonight and be followed by fair weather region-wide into Saturday due to the following: Continued boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling through daybreak and eventual arrival of a stabilizing surface ridge from the west and north. The current forecast reflects these expectations fairly well, overall. Will let the upcoming overnight shift reevaluate continued trends in obs and model guidance, and determine whether significant changes to POP's are required for Saturday.
The other concern is nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low- level moisture, including that from recent rainfall, and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient will likely promote the development/downward expansion of widespread stratus and radiation fog development late this evening and especially Saturday morning. For example, recent runs of the HRRR and NBM support this expectation. Model guidance also indicates limited nocturnal cooling/resulting reduction in surface dew point depressions may allow advection fog to develop over Lake Erie overnight tonight, especially east of roughly Avon Point, OH. The forecast was updated to reflect these expectations. Will continue to monitor latest trends in obs and model guidance for the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory. Any fog should dissipate by late Saturday morning or early afternoon, when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer, especially over land, taps into drier air aloft. However, some NWP models suggest advection fog over Lake Erie may linger well into Saturday. Please see discussion below for further details.
Previous Discussion from 3:55 PM EDT...
A weak but broad mid/upper trough remains across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon, with associated weak surface low pressure just south of James Bay extending a cold front through Lower Michigan and Indiana. Synoptic forcing and deep layer wind profiles are very weak, but upper-level diffluence and the right entrance region of a 75-85 knot H3 jet streak lifting through the southern Great Lakes generated widespread shower activity this morning since plenty of low-level moisture is in place. The steadiest showers are currently exiting far eastern Ohio and western PA coincident with the aforementioned jet streak lifting out of the region, but breaks in the cloud cover are generating weak to moderate instability characterized by SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg in NW and north central Ohio. This combined with continued low-level moisture (dew points low/mid 60s) and upper diffluence and low-level confluence ahead of the cold front is supporting the development of diurnal convection. Doppler radar and visible satellite loops show most of this developing from north central Ohio through the central highlands at the time, but development is also taking place in Lower Michigan away from the lakes. With all of this in mind, all areas could see passing showers or thundershowers this afternoon and evening, but the greatest potential is over the southern and eastern counties from roughly Mt. Vernon to Youngstown, so put the highest PoPs there through the evening. Since the flow aloft is weak, deep layer shear values will only be 10-15 knots, so severe weather is not expected. The only concern with the convection will be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized, nuisance flooding. PWATs remain in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range in much of the area which is around the 90th percentile of daily climatology for the date, and RAP forecast soundings show fairly tall, skinny CAPE with freezing levels a little above 700 mb. This combined with the weak flow profile and the flow parallel to the front will allow for some slow moving convective cells with efficient rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Any issues would likely be if convection can train.
The weak mid/upper trough axis will further weaken and move east of the region tonight and Saturday allowing shortwave ridging and broad surface high pressure to nudge in from the west by Saturday night, but it looks to be a slow process since two northern and southern stream weak troughs are pretty separated from the main jets aloft.
This will cause the weak cold front to slowly progress east and southeast across the region tonight and Saturday before washing out near the Appalachians. Most areas will dry out tonight, but with the front and associated low-level moisture taking their time exiting on Saturday, diurnally driven convection will develop again from late morning through the afternoon, mainly east of I-77. Coverage should however be less than today, but locally heavy downpours could occur.
All areas will dry out Saturday night as the high builds in.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to around 60, with highs Saturday in the upper 70s/low 80s in NW and north central Ohio where more sunshine occurs, but mid 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid/upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The weather pattern will shift to a hotter and more summer like for later this weekend into early next week. An upper level ridge of high pressure will develop and expand over the Ohio Valley region Sunday and Monday. The main storm track will shift northward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region for a few days. With high pressure in control, we will expect fair weather conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Sunday afternoon will range from the lower to middle 80s. There could be a light lake breeze Sunday afternoon closer to the lakeshore that may keep temperatures in the upper 70s. We will add another degree or two for Monday afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80s. We should stay dry Sunday through Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to remain in control of our weather on Tuesday keeping us very warm and dry. Temperatures will be once again in the middle to upper 80s. By Tuesday night, the upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to break down and a series of shortwave troughs will swing through the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week. A slow moving cold front will start to slide into the Lower Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley region late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will also be slightly cooler with the rain chances in the area Wednesday through early Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Mainly VFR expected through 00Z/Sun. Aloft, a weak trough axis moves E'ward through our region between ~09Z/Sat and ~18Z/Sat.
Otherwise ridging precedes and follows the trough. At the surface, a weak trough affects our region through ~12Z/Sat.
Thereafter, a weak ridge builds from the west and north through 00Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend variable around 5 knots through the TAF period. However, a NW'erly to NE'erly lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots is expected to affect locations within several miles of Lake Erie from ~15Z/Sat through 00Z/Sun.
This includes KCLE and KERI.
A few showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are expected along/near a weak low-level convergence zone accompanying the aforementioned surface trough, especially before ~04Z/Sat. This convergence zone is expected to reside near a KFDY to KMFD to KGKJ corridor. Fair weather is likely region-wide after ~12Z/Sat.
Widespread low clouds and associated VFR ceilings early this evening are expected to expand and lower via nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low-level moisture. As a result, widespread MVFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to develop by this late evening or early Saturday morning. These low clouds are then expected to scatter-out or dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into drier air aloft late Saturday morning or early afternoon. Widespread mist and fog, and associated MVFR to LIFR visibility, are expected to develop late this evening or early Saturday morning. Mist/fog should then dissipate via the onset of diurnal heating by midday Saturday at the latest.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but especially Monday night through Wednesday.
MARINE
Overall the weather forecast for Lake Erie will remain quiet this weekend into early next week. High pressure will return over the lake this weekend with a light northeast flow under 10 knots for the weekend. A warm front will lift across the lake Monday with a return of southeast flow over the lake. Southerly flow will continue to increase up to 15 knots Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system that will move through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week. No marine headlines are expected at this time.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45132 - Port Stanley | 16 mi | 36 min | E 7.8G | 58°F | 56°F | 1 ft | 29.83 | |
| ASBO1 | 47 mi | 36 min | NE 4.1G | |||||
| 45208 | 48 mi | 36 min | NE 1.9G | 57°F | 55°F | 1 ft | 29.78 | 56°F |
| CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 48 mi | 36 min | NNE 2.9G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Cleveland, OH,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE