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LEZ041 Expires:202405180300;;384794 Fzus51 Kbuf 172027 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 426 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-180300- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 426 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening. Patchy fog from late evening on. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 180135 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 935 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area through tonight, bringing a soaking rainfall through the evening to much of the region. A few showers may linger into Saturday before high pressure then builds across the area Sunday bringing a dry finish to the weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue for the end of the work week into this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Currently an area of showers is tracking east across the region, with steady showers found over and northeast of Rochester extending over Lake Ontario. Steadier showers are out of the western third of the area, but the moist air mass is allowing for scattered showers and drizzle to linger. Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to low 60s for the areas where steadier rain has been falling for most of the evening. Warmer temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s for areas to the east where little to no rain has fallen.

The area of showers will slowly continue to move into the Finger Lakes region and central NY this evening. A strong surface ridge along the east coast will halt forward progression and lead to weakening of showers tonight. Low-level moisture will remain pooled across the region overnight and patchy fog is likely across western NY. If clouds decide to clear overnight, fog could become more widespread and dense in some locations. Mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Little change in MSLP Saturday. Surface high pressure remains along the east coast with variable winds across the forecast area. Ridging will build into the forecast area as the shortwave trough moves into the Capitol Region Saturday. Daytime heating and low level moisture will likely lead to diurnal showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across interior western NY or along a lake breeze boundary.
Highs will reach the low to mid 70s.

Saturday night will begin a period of dry and warm weather across western and north central NY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A high amplitude upper level ridge will be entrenched along the spine of the Appalachians and into New England to start the period.
With the ridge axis centered along the eastern side of the CWA, the surface high pressure center itself will slowly wander from being centered over the western end of Lake Erie on Monday toward the east coast on Tuesday. As a result of the gradual progression, weak southerly (or even southeasterly) flow on Monday afternoon will to a stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the eastward slumping of the surface ridge and increasing momentum off the deck from Monday through Wednesday, surface to 850 hPa mixing should increase and allow for strong afternoon run ups in temperatures with interior sections from the Genesee Valley eastward easily jumping into the mid 80s while even most of the lakeshores approach 80F during this interlude as select guidance has 850 hPa temperatures running up to +16 to +18C. The only places in the CWA that may reach their thermal apex on Monday rather than Tuesday or Wednesday seem to be the Niagara Frontier and the Watertown areas, where the south/southeasterly flow would keep any lake-influenced air out of the picture. With stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, these areas may hold back a few degrees relative to their more interior peer locations.

While all will seem bright and sultry early next week, don't dare be fooled that summer is here as things go way off the tracks shortly thereafter. A massive pattern shift looks to be in store for the second half of next week. The semi-resident ridge will slide off the east coast with an upstream closed 500 hPa low ever-so-slowly ejecting from the Rockies toward the upper Great Lakes. Several successive short-wave troughs with associated reinforcing shots of cooler air will push through the region beyond Wednesday as a result. This will lead to steadily increasing chances of showers with temperatures falling back substantially from where we will have been by that juncture. In fact, while the forecast features a consensus of wildly disparate guidance numbers by the end of next week and the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, there are several fairly reliable pieces of guidance in the mix that would suggest some drastically colder conditions will be in the mix by that time. Evidence of this can be gleaned from the +4C at 850 hPa on the ECMWF and +3C on the Canadian global by Sunday, as well as the -3C on the GFS Friday morning. While each of these numbers by themselves doesn't mean a whole lot, when we approach the Friday through Sunday period as a whole, it would certainly tend to lean toward the belief that a portion of it is likely to be significantly colder than we have been accustomed to.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A moist airmass and trough passing over the region will continue to support showers through much of the night, resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions across western NY this evening. Flight conditions will likely fluctuate through this evening as scattered showers continue and moisture pools at the surface. Overall, flight conditions will become IFR/LIFR overnight across western NY. Fog is a concern especially for locations where clouds clear out overnight. Farther east, such as KART, showers will start to break up, but the chance for some showers will be in place through the evening and into the early overnight. Flight conditions east of Lake Ontario should stay in the upper MVFR to VFR range, but will need to keep an eye on the forecast through the night for aviation purposes.

Flight conditions will slowly improve Saturday morning and IFR conditions may persist until late morning. Showers will develop away from the lakeshores but also along lake breeze boundaries. This may impact the TAF sites across western NY. Mostly dry and VFR conditions will continue at KART.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR possible. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue the generally light winds through this weekend into the start of next week. The next system will be a stronger cold front that will cross the Lake toward mid week bringing the next notable increase in winds and waves.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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