Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fox Lake, IL
May 17, 2024 9:12 PM CDT (02:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:28 PM Moonset 2:53 AM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- 320 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Saturday - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south overnight. Areas of dense fog. Waves around 1 ft.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves building to 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 172343 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 643 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers t-storms through early evening near & south of the Kankakee/Illinois River Valley.
- Areas of dense fog are possible tonight, particularly right along the northeastern Illinois Lake Michigan shore.
- Summer-like warmth inland through the weekend and then area-wide Monday and Tuesday along with more humid conditions
- A few isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon-evening.
- Waves of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, with the highest coverage Monday and Tuesday evenings, including a threat for strong/severe storms and flooding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Through Saturday Night:
While dewpoints across much of northern IL have mixed out into the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon, boundary layer moisture remains elevated across southern sections of the area (well south of I-80) in close proximity to a lingering weak surface boundary.
Amble heating of this moist airmass has even recently resulted in enough buoyancy to foster a few isolated showers and storms across parts of central IL into IN. This activity is expected to largely remain isolated in coverage and confined near and south of line from roughly Bloomington to Gibson City, east- northeastward to near Rensselaer, IN through early evening (~8pm).
Overall, weak flow and associated poor deep layer shear is expected to curtail the threat of organized severe storms.
However, a few localized instances of gusty winds and/or small hail will be possible with the strongest storms in the south through sunset. Elsewhere, sunny and warm inland conditions will persist through the afternoon. A lake breeze will result in a bit cooler afternoon weather, and potentially some fog near the Lake Michigan shore.
Dense fog has persisted across the open waters of Lake Michigan today, and recently has began expanding into some of the northeastern IL near shore waters. While these conditions have not shown signs of shifting inland yet, things may change as we approach sunset. We will thus have to keep a close eye on observation trends into this evening as the fog could begin to seep inland with sunset. If this does occur, visibilities within a few miles of the Lake county IL and northern Cook county shoreline could become very low (under a half mile) this evening.
An additional area of fog may develop late tonight across parts of eastern IL and northwestern IL, where better lower-level moisture is expected to persist. Some of this may also become locally dense for period near daybreak as temperatures bottom out in the light wind regime to near their crossover value. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate Saturday morning.
Following any early morning fog, Saturday looks to be mostly sunny and even warmer than today. Forecast guidance continues to advertise 925mb temps into the lower 20s Celcius. These temps are warmer than the 90% percentile values for mid-late May and should easily support high temps at least into the mid 80s. More of a southerly gradient should result in far less pronounced of lake breeze Saturday afternoon, likely confined mainly to the IL shore, particularly the north shore communities.
While dry weather is expected in our area on Saturday, some scattered afternoon storms are expected with a cold front west of the area in parts of eastern IA. This cold front is expected to shift into our area Saturday night. While it is not out of the question that a few showers or storms maintain themselves long enough into the evening to make it into parts of northern IL, it appears the poor diurnal timing of the frontal arrival into our area will limit our overall chances of precipitation. We thus, for the time being, continue to advertise a dry forecast with the frontal passage Saturday night.
KJB
Sunday through Friday:
On Sunday, the cold front discussed in the short term section will slip south and take on backdoor characteristics, possibly becoming somewhat lake enhanced given the large land-lake thermal gradient. The lake cooling footprint (temps in upper 60s-mid 70s, coolest shore) will extend farther inland than tomorrow. Locations inland of the lake cooling footprint can expect temperatures similar if not a degree or two warmer than Saturday's highs. Dew points will reach into the 60s near and south of the backdoor front and 50s north.
Weak flow aloft and neutral to rising heights fitting the summer-like pattern will combine with very dry mid-level air (substantial dry air entrainment into incipient updrafts) to greatly limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Suspect the NCEP guidance, particularly the GFS suite, is too high overall with the dew point forecast on Sunday. A combination of the high-biased Td forecast and not adequately accounting for the likelihood of dry air entrainment aloft appears to be resulting in an overly aggressive forecast convective footprint Sunday afternoon and evening.
With the above being said, the more realistic ECMWF still features weakly capped to uncapped soundings Sunday afternoon, so even with the very dry air aloft, can't rule out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily inland of the marine layer push. If the ECMWF depiction ends up being on the right track, a low but relatively better chance for a couple showers and storms may end up focusing south of I-80 where the higher dew points are forecast.
Barring some sort of convectively enhanced short-wave Sunday evening, diurnally driven convection should dissipate with time and the overnight may end up primarily if not entirely dry.
The backdoor cold front bisecting the area on Sunday will surge back north of the area as a warm front on Monday, putting us in the more humid warm sector amidst highs likely well into the 80s once again. The magnitude of large scale forcing is somewhat questionable as the main short-wave lifts into the northern Great Lakes. However, with the erosion of MLCINh and up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, the departing short-wave and proximity of the warm front to the north may provide enough of a trigger. There remains enough of a signal across the guidance for 30-60% PoPs across northern Illinois and most of central Illinois Monday afternoon, particularly in the mid-late afternoon.
Should convection initiate during Monday afternoon, it could result in the effective front sagging back south, presenting a focus for higher thunderstorm coverage Monday evening, when PoPs come up to 60-70% near/northwest of I-55. Marginal deep layer shear looks to be a limiting factor for a more appreciable severe threat late day Monday through the evening, though wouldn't be surprised at a level 1 of 5 (marginal risk) threat for parts of the area. In addition, PWATs up near or upwards of 1.5" (150-200%) will probably support ponding on roads, with flash flooding possible if training convection occurs.
Tuesday continues to be the most "interesting" day next week convectively speaking. Another more substantial short-wave trough and associated cyclogenesis over the Plains (tracking northeastward)
introduce the prospect for a more synoptically classic set-up for thunderstorms, severe weather, and flooding over the region late day Tuesday, and especially Tuesday evening. As is typical at this range of the forecast, there's plenty of uncertainty in the timing and evolution of key features and mesoscale influences of multiple potential waves of convection. There has been enough slowing in the approach of the main short-wave that after any Tuesday morning convection, there *may* be somewhat of a minima in coverage Tuesday afternoon, especially with southeastward extent. Continued to feel comfortable in high PoPs (up to 80%)
and likely thunderstorm wording Tuesday evening, when the severe threat may maximize, perhaps with areas near/NW of I-55 a bit more favored given the (current) timing.
The system's cold front will likely sweep across the area sometime between Tuesday night and mid day Wednesday, which would entail a quieter day on Wednesday with a bit more seasonable temperatures. Can't rule out a further slowing of the cold front passage though, with slower guidance members helping explain the chance (30-50%) range PoPs Wednesday PM. Thursday at this extended range appears the most likely to be quiet, dry, and cooler, followed by a highly uncertain evolution into the start of Memorial Day Weekend.
Castro
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Key Aviation Messages:
- Threat of fog remains mainly near the Lake Michigan shore tonight and into northwest IN (KGYY).
Weak cold front has stalled south/southeast of the terminals this afternoon, with a few isolated TSRA spread out along the boundary from near KPIA/KBMI northeast to KRZL. These should dissipate with sunset and will not be a factor for the terminals. Otherwise, easterly winds behind a lake breeze across the Chicago terminals will become light southeast or variable overnight before becoming south-southwest Saturday morning. A lake breeze is expected to form, but at this time it looks to remain east of KORD/KMDW through the afternoon. Winds may back to 180-170 degrees at less then 10 kts Saturday evening.
Dense fog has largely eroded across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon, but will likely redevelop in spots tonight. This may expand into far northeast IL (KUGN) late, but is otherwise expected to be focused near the lake shore. Additional patchy fog is likely across northwest IN, where low level moisture is greater in proximity to the stalled frontal boundary. Guidance keeps most of this east/southeast of KGYY but it may be close.
Have maintained an MVFR vis for KGYY early Saturday morning, but will continue to monitor trends in case lower visibilities look more likely there.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Saturday night for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for Winthrop Harbor to Northerly Is. IL.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 643 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers t-storms through early evening near & south of the Kankakee/Illinois River Valley.
- Areas of dense fog are possible tonight, particularly right along the northeastern Illinois Lake Michigan shore.
- Summer-like warmth inland through the weekend and then area-wide Monday and Tuesday along with more humid conditions
- A few isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon-evening.
- Waves of thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, with the highest coverage Monday and Tuesday evenings, including a threat for strong/severe storms and flooding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Through Saturday Night:
While dewpoints across much of northern IL have mixed out into the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon, boundary layer moisture remains elevated across southern sections of the area (well south of I-80) in close proximity to a lingering weak surface boundary.
Amble heating of this moist airmass has even recently resulted in enough buoyancy to foster a few isolated showers and storms across parts of central IL into IN. This activity is expected to largely remain isolated in coverage and confined near and south of line from roughly Bloomington to Gibson City, east- northeastward to near Rensselaer, IN through early evening (~8pm).
Overall, weak flow and associated poor deep layer shear is expected to curtail the threat of organized severe storms.
However, a few localized instances of gusty winds and/or small hail will be possible with the strongest storms in the south through sunset. Elsewhere, sunny and warm inland conditions will persist through the afternoon. A lake breeze will result in a bit cooler afternoon weather, and potentially some fog near the Lake Michigan shore.
Dense fog has persisted across the open waters of Lake Michigan today, and recently has began expanding into some of the northeastern IL near shore waters. While these conditions have not shown signs of shifting inland yet, things may change as we approach sunset. We will thus have to keep a close eye on observation trends into this evening as the fog could begin to seep inland with sunset. If this does occur, visibilities within a few miles of the Lake county IL and northern Cook county shoreline could become very low (under a half mile) this evening.
An additional area of fog may develop late tonight across parts of eastern IL and northwestern IL, where better lower-level moisture is expected to persist. Some of this may also become locally dense for period near daybreak as temperatures bottom out in the light wind regime to near their crossover value. Any fog that develops will quickly dissipate Saturday morning.
Following any early morning fog, Saturday looks to be mostly sunny and even warmer than today. Forecast guidance continues to advertise 925mb temps into the lower 20s Celcius. These temps are warmer than the 90% percentile values for mid-late May and should easily support high temps at least into the mid 80s. More of a southerly gradient should result in far less pronounced of lake breeze Saturday afternoon, likely confined mainly to the IL shore, particularly the north shore communities.
While dry weather is expected in our area on Saturday, some scattered afternoon storms are expected with a cold front west of the area in parts of eastern IA. This cold front is expected to shift into our area Saturday night. While it is not out of the question that a few showers or storms maintain themselves long enough into the evening to make it into parts of northern IL, it appears the poor diurnal timing of the frontal arrival into our area will limit our overall chances of precipitation. We thus, for the time being, continue to advertise a dry forecast with the frontal passage Saturday night.
KJB
Sunday through Friday:
On Sunday, the cold front discussed in the short term section will slip south and take on backdoor characteristics, possibly becoming somewhat lake enhanced given the large land-lake thermal gradient. The lake cooling footprint (temps in upper 60s-mid 70s, coolest shore) will extend farther inland than tomorrow. Locations inland of the lake cooling footprint can expect temperatures similar if not a degree or two warmer than Saturday's highs. Dew points will reach into the 60s near and south of the backdoor front and 50s north.
Weak flow aloft and neutral to rising heights fitting the summer-like pattern will combine with very dry mid-level air (substantial dry air entrainment into incipient updrafts) to greatly limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Suspect the NCEP guidance, particularly the GFS suite, is too high overall with the dew point forecast on Sunday. A combination of the high-biased Td forecast and not adequately accounting for the likelihood of dry air entrainment aloft appears to be resulting in an overly aggressive forecast convective footprint Sunday afternoon and evening.
With the above being said, the more realistic ECMWF still features weakly capped to uncapped soundings Sunday afternoon, so even with the very dry air aloft, can't rule out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms primarily inland of the marine layer push. If the ECMWF depiction ends up being on the right track, a low but relatively better chance for a couple showers and storms may end up focusing south of I-80 where the higher dew points are forecast.
Barring some sort of convectively enhanced short-wave Sunday evening, diurnally driven convection should dissipate with time and the overnight may end up primarily if not entirely dry.
The backdoor cold front bisecting the area on Sunday will surge back north of the area as a warm front on Monday, putting us in the more humid warm sector amidst highs likely well into the 80s once again. The magnitude of large scale forcing is somewhat questionable as the main short-wave lifts into the northern Great Lakes. However, with the erosion of MLCINh and up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, the departing short-wave and proximity of the warm front to the north may provide enough of a trigger. There remains enough of a signal across the guidance for 30-60% PoPs across northern Illinois and most of central Illinois Monday afternoon, particularly in the mid-late afternoon.
Should convection initiate during Monday afternoon, it could result in the effective front sagging back south, presenting a focus for higher thunderstorm coverage Monday evening, when PoPs come up to 60-70% near/northwest of I-55. Marginal deep layer shear looks to be a limiting factor for a more appreciable severe threat late day Monday through the evening, though wouldn't be surprised at a level 1 of 5 (marginal risk) threat for parts of the area. In addition, PWATs up near or upwards of 1.5" (150-200%) will probably support ponding on roads, with flash flooding possible if training convection occurs.
Tuesday continues to be the most "interesting" day next week convectively speaking. Another more substantial short-wave trough and associated cyclogenesis over the Plains (tracking northeastward)
introduce the prospect for a more synoptically classic set-up for thunderstorms, severe weather, and flooding over the region late day Tuesday, and especially Tuesday evening. As is typical at this range of the forecast, there's plenty of uncertainty in the timing and evolution of key features and mesoscale influences of multiple potential waves of convection. There has been enough slowing in the approach of the main short-wave that after any Tuesday morning convection, there *may* be somewhat of a minima in coverage Tuesday afternoon, especially with southeastward extent. Continued to feel comfortable in high PoPs (up to 80%)
and likely thunderstorm wording Tuesday evening, when the severe threat may maximize, perhaps with areas near/NW of I-55 a bit more favored given the (current) timing.
The system's cold front will likely sweep across the area sometime between Tuesday night and mid day Wednesday, which would entail a quieter day on Wednesday with a bit more seasonable temperatures. Can't rule out a further slowing of the cold front passage though, with slower guidance members helping explain the chance (30-50%) range PoPs Wednesday PM. Thursday at this extended range appears the most likely to be quiet, dry, and cooler, followed by a highly uncertain evolution into the start of Memorial Day Weekend.
Castro
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Key Aviation Messages:
- Threat of fog remains mainly near the Lake Michigan shore tonight and into northwest IN (KGYY).
Weak cold front has stalled south/southeast of the terminals this afternoon, with a few isolated TSRA spread out along the boundary from near KPIA/KBMI northeast to KRZL. These should dissipate with sunset and will not be a factor for the terminals. Otherwise, easterly winds behind a lake breeze across the Chicago terminals will become light southeast or variable overnight before becoming south-southwest Saturday morning. A lake breeze is expected to form, but at this time it looks to remain east of KORD/KMDW through the afternoon. Winds may back to 180-170 degrees at less then 10 kts Saturday evening.
Dense fog has largely eroded across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon, but will likely redevelop in spots tonight. This may expand into far northeast IL (KUGN) late, but is otherwise expected to be focused near the lake shore. Additional patchy fog is likely across northwest IN, where low level moisture is greater in proximity to the stalled frontal boundary. Guidance keeps most of this east/southeast of KGYY but it may be close.
Have maintained an MVFR vis for KGYY early Saturday morning, but will continue to monitor trends in case lower visibilities look more likely there.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight CDT Saturday night for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for Winthrop Harbor to Northerly Is. IL.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45186 | 20 mi | 43 min | 0G | 55°F | 56°F | 0 ft | ||
| 45187 | 21 mi | 53 min | 1.9G | 54°F | 55°F | 0 ft | ||
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 22 mi | 73 min | N 1.9G | 53°F | 29.79 | |||
| 45199 | 34 mi | 73 min | NNE 3.9 | 46°F | 49°F | 0 ft | 29.80 | |
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 44 mi | 33 min | ESE 2.9G | 53°F | ||||
| OKSI2 | 45 mi | 133 min | SE 1.9G | 63°F | ||||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 46 mi | 43 min | NW 1G | 62°F | 62°F | |||
| CNII2 | 48 mi | 28 min | 0G | 58°F | 54°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 15 sm | 21 min | ESE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 54°F | 77% | 29.78 | |
| KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 18 sm | 19 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 29.79 | |
| KBUU BURLINGTON MUNI,WI | 21 sm | 17 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 29.79 |
Milwaukee, WI,
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