Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Bluff, IL
May 21, 2024 9:50 PM CDT (02:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:22 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 6:38 PM Moonset 4:06 AM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 345 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening through late tonight - .
Late this afternoon - South winds to 30 kt with a few gale force gusts to 35 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight - South gales to 35 kt with a few gales over 40 kt possible, becoming southwest 20 to 30 kt late. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 15 to 20 kt. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 ft.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 220022 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 722 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms likely this evening, with potential for widespread, and potentially significant, damaging winds and tornadoes
- Non-thunderstorm winds could gust over 40 mph from the south this evening, then from the southwest in the wake of the storms later tonight
- There will be dry breaks at times, but an active pattern for showers and storms returns Friday through early next week
MESOSCALE
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
The severe weather threat is quickly moving into northwest Illinois early this evening as a vigorous storm system continues to intensify into the Upper Midwest. Current expectations suggest the primary severe weather threat through 10 pm will be across northwestern parts of the area from the western Chicago metro and points westward into the Rockford area. This does not mean Chicago is out of the woods yet, but given the quickly northeastward shifting dynamics, thinking is the highest coverage of storms will track northeastward northwest of Chicago, at least through 10 pm. Some low threat for severe storms still exists into the immediate Chicago area, though it would not be until after 10 pm.
With the above in mind, a tornado watch was just recently issued for portions of the area in collaboration with the SPC. Strong damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are expected with the approaching storms. There will also be an increasing threat for a few tornadoes after 8 pm as the low-level shear ramps up with an increasing low-level jet with sunset this evening.
KJB
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Through Wednesday:
All eyes are on developing convection along a cold front extending from western Iowa through far eastern Kansas this afternoon. Low-level capping from previous WAA and some PBL mixing/drying continues to support dry conditions through at least 6-7pm in our area. Meanwhile, the spread in potential solutions from near-term CAM guidance is far higher than desired at this point, with guidance ranging from little/no convection over most of the CWA to an expansive squall line with significant damaging winds and an increased tornado threat well into the forecast area. Explosive growth of convection across eastern Kansas and far northwest Missouri supports maintaining a more aggressive approach with organized convection surviving well into the area, so we again made only some tweaks to the overall forecast and messaging with this update.
Overall expectations are for the ongoing upscale growth of the convection along the KS/MO line, ultimately developing a robust cold pool that will erode remaining capping and maintain organized convection across the MS River and into at least the western CWA around the 7-8pm window. Convection should then gradually weaken with eastward extent as the line becomes farther removed from the prime kinematic environment to the north. With that said, the highest coverage of potential significant winds favors areas roughly north of a line from LaSalle to Cook counties and especially in the northwest CWA toward the Rockford area.
All severe hazards are possible as the convection crosses the area this evening, but favors a transition to primarily damaging winds with eastward extent. Any convection, particularly linear/bowing segments and especially any QLCS, will support a damaging wind threat with the potential for swaths of significant wind gusts (75mph+) through the evening. Even decaying convection will support a significant damaging wind risk owing to substantial low-level shear profiles and a pre- convective pool of DCAPE up to around 1500J/kg.
The tornado risk will remain highly conditional on both storm evolution and coverage, with the most notable threat occurring with any QLCS/bowing structures owing to an impressive low-level wind profile with highly elongated hodographs and only a weakly decoupled nocturnal PBL. In fact, there may be a brief increase in tornado potential during the mid-evening as EHI values maximize with the increasing LLJ and slight increase in low- level moisture. As noted in earlier discussions, strong tornadoes (EF2) cannot be ruled out with any well-formed line segment.
Behind the convection just ahead of and behind the convection overnight, strong and gusty south to southwest synoptic winds will potentially gust to 40+mph for several hours, with some gusts possibly even reaching 50mph.
Cooler and dry conditions are expected Wednesday behind this system.
Kluber
Wednesday Night through Tuesday:
Models are starting to key in on the clearer conditions allowing for better heating to develop Thursday and potentially Friday. Previous forecasts capped temperatures in the 70s through the weekend, but now it looks like there is a better chance for temps to return to the 80s for much of the area for Thursday and Friday as a warm front lifts northward from Central Illinois (more on this in a second). Unmentionable PoPs south of I-80 along and south of the warm front were kept in the forecast with only a few low end slight chances (15 to 20 percent) on Thursday afternoon. With little capping, perhaps a pulse shower pops up in southern Ford or Iroquois Counties, but confidence is low and kept the forecast mostly dry through Friday morning.
A weaker (relative to the short term forecast above) upper level trough will move out of the Plains and toward Ontario Friday night into Saturday. The associated surface low still gradually move northward through Iowa on Friday, lifting the previously mentioned warm front with it before a cold front sweeps across the area in the evening. Notably, models have sped of the progression of this system from a Saturday morning event to now more of a Friday event. Model soundings are starting suggest better mid level lapse rates with sufficient instability aloft. With additional forcing from the cold front, showers and thunderstorms have a chance to develop. One limiting factor is the projected wind shear values along the line do not look very impressive, limiting the severe potential. Additionally, the forecast kept likely PoPs for Friday afternoon for areas southwest of I-39, but only chance PoPs for the rest of the area because it is currently expected to move east over the area after sunset and therefore have weaker instability without the diurnal heating component. But given how models have changed, there is a lot of uncertainty in the exact timing of the frontal passage.
Other than lingering showers Saturday morning, brief ridging should allow for a slightly drier Saturday afternoon through the start of Sunday. Both Euro and GFS ensembles are suggesting two weak waves next week, one moving northward from St. Louis Sunday night, as well as a slightly deeper one over the northern Plains arriving over Illinois sometime between Monday and into Tuesday. While there will certainly be breaks, it is hard to argue with the NBM's minimal slight chance PoPs through next week. While PoPs are higher as models take their best guess at timing at this range of the forecast will probably need to be adjusted in the coming days. The main takeaway is that regardless of the magnitude, it looks like a fairly active pattern will remain in place through the end of the forecast period.
DK
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Key aviation messages:
- Strong S to SSW winds this afternoon with gusts to 30-40kt - Line of TSRA expected to move through late evening. Medium to high confidence in a period of severe winds at KRFD, lower confidence in the strength of winds at KORD/KMDW.
- Line may become broken as it approaches KORD/KMDW, but medium- high confidence in thunder - Strong SW to W winds develop in wake of TSRA with gusts to 30-37kt
There are no big changes to the 0z TAF cycle. Gusty south winds will continue ahead of the line/broken area of thunderstorms now approaching the Mississippi River.
Confidence is high in these storms maintaining themselves into KRFD and KDPA. Confidence is also high in near severe or severe level winds (60 mph) reaching KRFD, with chances diminishing toward the Chicago terminals. Therefore holding gusts to 50 mph at ORD/MDW for now, and we will monitor how well the southern portion of the line of storms holds together. More will certainly be known in the coming hours.
Also, the current timing for TS at ORD/MDW does appear to be closer to 03z, but if any individual cells develop ahead of the current activity - it could be closer to 0230z or so, and this will be an area we will keep a close eye on as well.
Gusty SW to W winds in the mid 30 kt range will continue in the late evening and early overnight hours. MVFR conditions will arrive, though in pockets overnight into early Wednesday, but fairly low confidence in arrival timing and how long these will last. Winds will be closer to W then SSW on Wednesday with gusts more so in the 20 kt realm than the 30 kt like today.
KMD
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 722 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms likely this evening, with potential for widespread, and potentially significant, damaging winds and tornadoes
- Non-thunderstorm winds could gust over 40 mph from the south this evening, then from the southwest in the wake of the storms later tonight
- There will be dry breaks at times, but an active pattern for showers and storms returns Friday through early next week
MESOSCALE
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
The severe weather threat is quickly moving into northwest Illinois early this evening as a vigorous storm system continues to intensify into the Upper Midwest. Current expectations suggest the primary severe weather threat through 10 pm will be across northwestern parts of the area from the western Chicago metro and points westward into the Rockford area. This does not mean Chicago is out of the woods yet, but given the quickly northeastward shifting dynamics, thinking is the highest coverage of storms will track northeastward northwest of Chicago, at least through 10 pm. Some low threat for severe storms still exists into the immediate Chicago area, though it would not be until after 10 pm.
With the above in mind, a tornado watch was just recently issued for portions of the area in collaboration with the SPC. Strong damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are expected with the approaching storms. There will also be an increasing threat for a few tornadoes after 8 pm as the low-level shear ramps up with an increasing low-level jet with sunset this evening.
KJB
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Through Wednesday:
All eyes are on developing convection along a cold front extending from western Iowa through far eastern Kansas this afternoon. Low-level capping from previous WAA and some PBL mixing/drying continues to support dry conditions through at least 6-7pm in our area. Meanwhile, the spread in potential solutions from near-term CAM guidance is far higher than desired at this point, with guidance ranging from little/no convection over most of the CWA to an expansive squall line with significant damaging winds and an increased tornado threat well into the forecast area. Explosive growth of convection across eastern Kansas and far northwest Missouri supports maintaining a more aggressive approach with organized convection surviving well into the area, so we again made only some tweaks to the overall forecast and messaging with this update.
Overall expectations are for the ongoing upscale growth of the convection along the KS/MO line, ultimately developing a robust cold pool that will erode remaining capping and maintain organized convection across the MS River and into at least the western CWA around the 7-8pm window. Convection should then gradually weaken with eastward extent as the line becomes farther removed from the prime kinematic environment to the north. With that said, the highest coverage of potential significant winds favors areas roughly north of a line from LaSalle to Cook counties and especially in the northwest CWA toward the Rockford area.
All severe hazards are possible as the convection crosses the area this evening, but favors a transition to primarily damaging winds with eastward extent. Any convection, particularly linear/bowing segments and especially any QLCS, will support a damaging wind threat with the potential for swaths of significant wind gusts (75mph+) through the evening. Even decaying convection will support a significant damaging wind risk owing to substantial low-level shear profiles and a pre- convective pool of DCAPE up to around 1500J/kg.
The tornado risk will remain highly conditional on both storm evolution and coverage, with the most notable threat occurring with any QLCS/bowing structures owing to an impressive low-level wind profile with highly elongated hodographs and only a weakly decoupled nocturnal PBL. In fact, there may be a brief increase in tornado potential during the mid-evening as EHI values maximize with the increasing LLJ and slight increase in low- level moisture. As noted in earlier discussions, strong tornadoes (EF2) cannot be ruled out with any well-formed line segment.
Behind the convection just ahead of and behind the convection overnight, strong and gusty south to southwest synoptic winds will potentially gust to 40+mph for several hours, with some gusts possibly even reaching 50mph.
Cooler and dry conditions are expected Wednesday behind this system.
Kluber
Wednesday Night through Tuesday:
Models are starting to key in on the clearer conditions allowing for better heating to develop Thursday and potentially Friday. Previous forecasts capped temperatures in the 70s through the weekend, but now it looks like there is a better chance for temps to return to the 80s for much of the area for Thursday and Friday as a warm front lifts northward from Central Illinois (more on this in a second). Unmentionable PoPs south of I-80 along and south of the warm front were kept in the forecast with only a few low end slight chances (15 to 20 percent) on Thursday afternoon. With little capping, perhaps a pulse shower pops up in southern Ford or Iroquois Counties, but confidence is low and kept the forecast mostly dry through Friday morning.
A weaker (relative to the short term forecast above) upper level trough will move out of the Plains and toward Ontario Friday night into Saturday. The associated surface low still gradually move northward through Iowa on Friday, lifting the previously mentioned warm front with it before a cold front sweeps across the area in the evening. Notably, models have sped of the progression of this system from a Saturday morning event to now more of a Friday event. Model soundings are starting suggest better mid level lapse rates with sufficient instability aloft. With additional forcing from the cold front, showers and thunderstorms have a chance to develop. One limiting factor is the projected wind shear values along the line do not look very impressive, limiting the severe potential. Additionally, the forecast kept likely PoPs for Friday afternoon for areas southwest of I-39, but only chance PoPs for the rest of the area because it is currently expected to move east over the area after sunset and therefore have weaker instability without the diurnal heating component. But given how models have changed, there is a lot of uncertainty in the exact timing of the frontal passage.
Other than lingering showers Saturday morning, brief ridging should allow for a slightly drier Saturday afternoon through the start of Sunday. Both Euro and GFS ensembles are suggesting two weak waves next week, one moving northward from St. Louis Sunday night, as well as a slightly deeper one over the northern Plains arriving over Illinois sometime between Monday and into Tuesday. While there will certainly be breaks, it is hard to argue with the NBM's minimal slight chance PoPs through next week. While PoPs are higher as models take their best guess at timing at this range of the forecast will probably need to be adjusted in the coming days. The main takeaway is that regardless of the magnitude, it looks like a fairly active pattern will remain in place through the end of the forecast period.
DK
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Key aviation messages:
- Strong S to SSW winds this afternoon with gusts to 30-40kt - Line of TSRA expected to move through late evening. Medium to high confidence in a period of severe winds at KRFD, lower confidence in the strength of winds at KORD/KMDW.
- Line may become broken as it approaches KORD/KMDW, but medium- high confidence in thunder - Strong SW to W winds develop in wake of TSRA with gusts to 30-37kt
There are no big changes to the 0z TAF cycle. Gusty south winds will continue ahead of the line/broken area of thunderstorms now approaching the Mississippi River.
Confidence is high in these storms maintaining themselves into KRFD and KDPA. Confidence is also high in near severe or severe level winds (60 mph) reaching KRFD, with chances diminishing toward the Chicago terminals. Therefore holding gusts to 50 mph at ORD/MDW for now, and we will monitor how well the southern portion of the line of storms holds together. More will certainly be known in the coming hours.
Also, the current timing for TS at ORD/MDW does appear to be closer to 03z, but if any individual cells develop ahead of the current activity - it could be closer to 0230z or so, and this will be an area we will keep a close eye on as well.
Gusty SW to W winds in the mid 30 kt range will continue in the late evening and early overnight hours. MVFR conditions will arrive, though in pockets overnight into early Wednesday, but fairly low confidence in arrival timing and how long these will last. Winds will be closer to W then SSW on Wednesday with gusts more so in the 20 kt realm than the 30 kt like today.
KMD
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45186 | 6 mi | 30 min | 18G | 73°F | 58°F | 3 ft | ||
| 45187 | 15 mi | 30 min | 18G | 69°F | 57°F | 3 ft | ||
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 21 mi | 50 min | S 12G | 80°F | 29.53 | |||
| OKSI2 | 28 mi | 110 min | NNW 1.9G | 84°F | ||||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 29 mi | 30 min | S 38G | 85°F | 69°F | |||
| 45199 | 31 mi | 80 min | S 19 | 57°F | 49°F | 3 ft | 29.58 | |
| CNII2 | 32 mi | 20 min | SSW 14G | 83°F | 60°F | |||
| CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 41 mi | 50 min | S 16G | 83°F | 29.59 | 64°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 10 sm | 59 min | S 20G35 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 61°F | 45% | 29.54 | |
| KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 12 sm | 58 min | SSW 16G33 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 63°F | 48% | 29.58 | |
| KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL | 22 sm | 59 min | S 15G35 | 10 sm | Overcast | 84°F | 63°F | 48% | 29.57 | |
| KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 23 sm | 57 min | SSW 15G25 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 63°F | 48% | 29.54 |
Chicago, IL,
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