Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Michigan Beach, MI
May 21, 2024 3:12 AM EDT (07:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:16 AM Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 6:33 PM Moonset 4:00 AM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing south toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms through about 2 am. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late in the day.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - East winds around 10 knots backing northeast late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 210510 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 110 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A strong to locally severe thunderstorm is possible between 6 and 10 pm in NW Indiana/SW Lower MI as well as locally heavy rain.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night, mainly west of IN-15 and then again along and east of I-69 Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Warm and muggy conditions to be replaced by somewhat cooler and less humid air late this week into the Memorial Day weekend with some chances for showers and storms.
UPDATE
Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Freshening grids up to reflect current trends in the line of showers and storms extending from Marcellus to Lakeville and San Pierre. Outflow boundary was now ahead of the line, by several miles further north, which should result in a slow decrease in intensity over the next couple of hours. Damage has been reported in parts of LaPorte county as the strongest storm collapsed and the winds from the storm raced east. Some additional convection is noted across NE IL in an area of weak convergence. Even if this progresses east, it will be encountering a stabilized airmass in the wake of the main line which should help either dissipate them or at least keep them in check. No other changes made to grids for now.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Very summer-like pattern comes with summer like challenges for convection over the next couple of days in a rather moist and diurnally unstable environment. Highs the next several days will soar well into the 80s
Initial focus, with greatest (albeit still somewhat reserved)
confidence being with impacts of a MCV set to move across SE Wisconsin later this afternoon. While the best dynamics remain northwest of the area, a spoke of the wave does clip far NW areas, resulting in some weak convergence that may be sufficient to develop scattered showers and storms in the 22-00Z time frame.
NAM suite overly unimpressed with the development with other CAMs a bit more confident on some development (HRRR the greatest). Much like yesterday, shear profiles are rather paltry (20 kts or less) resulting in more pulse type convection that could drop a good deal of rain in a short time along with some threat for locally gusty winds/small hail. Confidence in eastward extent in the 00Z-04Z period decreases with loss of diurnal heating and continued NE track of the MCV removing the already limited convergence. Concerned that likely pops this evening may be overdone, but if it is going to occur, location is about right. Have made some adjustments to pops to reflect a bit more inland extent to the storms but continue with a weakening trend into the overnight hours.
Between 9Z Tue and quite possibly through 4-6Z Wed the best forcing will likely remain well north into MI with the warm front and well west with the cold front, resulting in a dry forecast despite increasing instability and shear during the afternoon and evening hours. 700 mb temps of +11 to +12 C edge in as well, further capping off any development. While a stray shower or storm could form across northern parts of the area during the morning and maybe late afternoon in the far W, by far the best chances look to wait to closer to 6Z Wed and beyond as a line of strong to severe storms will likely have moved across IL and be edging into western areas. A few CAMs show some possible additional development ahead of the line on more of a pre-frontal trough late evening with the main line then catching up. Several models show a fair amount of SFC based CIN taking shape overnight and the 50 kts of 0-6 km shear actually decreases just ahead of the approaching convection (still maintained along and behind). If the line holds together into the overnight hours, pockets of damaging winds and some large hail would be the main concerns. Slight risk in NW areas appears reasonable still for Tuesday night with greatest chances remaining well west of the area across E IA/W IL where a moderate risk for severe storms now exists.
Cold front will ease its way through Wednesday with the potential for some lingering cloud cover early. CAMs vary greatly on potential for development along and ahead of the front with stronger signals maybe residing just SE of our area during the afternoon/eve hours as better upper level dynamics take time to catch up with the front.
DY3 slight risk is warranted at this point, but may change over the next 24 to 36 hours as the mesoscale impacts of Tuesday night's convection becomes more apparent. New blend of models expands the likely pops well NW to match where the better chance for storms may exist (SE third or so-roughly I-69 east) and lingers into Wednesday evening. This could very well be overdone, but given the proximity of the front can't entirely dismiss.
Frontal boundary will settle south of the area, with models continuing to indicate a weak disturbance edging north from TX Thursday evening towards the Ohio Valley for Friday. Additional waves move in from the northern Plains the rest of the weekend into early next week resulting in several period of slgt chc to chc pops over the holiday weekend. Don't think by any means it will be a washout, but something to monitor in the coming days. The cloud cover will help keep it somewhat cooler during the day (70s).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Showers and storms have weakened, and dry conditions will now prevail through the day Tuesday. VFR ceilings will persist through much of the day Tuesday, and southerly winds will pick up in the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible. Showers and storms will be likely Tuesday night (likely arriving in Indiana between 02-06Z), so chances for storms will need to be added in subsequent TAF forecasts as confidence increases.
Storms may be strong to severe overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, and the primary concern is strong, gusty winds.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 110 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A strong to locally severe thunderstorm is possible between 6 and 10 pm in NW Indiana/SW Lower MI as well as locally heavy rain.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night, mainly west of IN-15 and then again along and east of I-69 Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Warm and muggy conditions to be replaced by somewhat cooler and less humid air late this week into the Memorial Day weekend with some chances for showers and storms.
UPDATE
Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Freshening grids up to reflect current trends in the line of showers and storms extending from Marcellus to Lakeville and San Pierre. Outflow boundary was now ahead of the line, by several miles further north, which should result in a slow decrease in intensity over the next couple of hours. Damage has been reported in parts of LaPorte county as the strongest storm collapsed and the winds from the storm raced east. Some additional convection is noted across NE IL in an area of weak convergence. Even if this progresses east, it will be encountering a stabilized airmass in the wake of the main line which should help either dissipate them or at least keep them in check. No other changes made to grids for now.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Very summer-like pattern comes with summer like challenges for convection over the next couple of days in a rather moist and diurnally unstable environment. Highs the next several days will soar well into the 80s
Initial focus, with greatest (albeit still somewhat reserved)
confidence being with impacts of a MCV set to move across SE Wisconsin later this afternoon. While the best dynamics remain northwest of the area, a spoke of the wave does clip far NW areas, resulting in some weak convergence that may be sufficient to develop scattered showers and storms in the 22-00Z time frame.
NAM suite overly unimpressed with the development with other CAMs a bit more confident on some development (HRRR the greatest). Much like yesterday, shear profiles are rather paltry (20 kts or less) resulting in more pulse type convection that could drop a good deal of rain in a short time along with some threat for locally gusty winds/small hail. Confidence in eastward extent in the 00Z-04Z period decreases with loss of diurnal heating and continued NE track of the MCV removing the already limited convergence. Concerned that likely pops this evening may be overdone, but if it is going to occur, location is about right. Have made some adjustments to pops to reflect a bit more inland extent to the storms but continue with a weakening trend into the overnight hours.
Between 9Z Tue and quite possibly through 4-6Z Wed the best forcing will likely remain well north into MI with the warm front and well west with the cold front, resulting in a dry forecast despite increasing instability and shear during the afternoon and evening hours. 700 mb temps of +11 to +12 C edge in as well, further capping off any development. While a stray shower or storm could form across northern parts of the area during the morning and maybe late afternoon in the far W, by far the best chances look to wait to closer to 6Z Wed and beyond as a line of strong to severe storms will likely have moved across IL and be edging into western areas. A few CAMs show some possible additional development ahead of the line on more of a pre-frontal trough late evening with the main line then catching up. Several models show a fair amount of SFC based CIN taking shape overnight and the 50 kts of 0-6 km shear actually decreases just ahead of the approaching convection (still maintained along and behind). If the line holds together into the overnight hours, pockets of damaging winds and some large hail would be the main concerns. Slight risk in NW areas appears reasonable still for Tuesday night with greatest chances remaining well west of the area across E IA/W IL where a moderate risk for severe storms now exists.
Cold front will ease its way through Wednesday with the potential for some lingering cloud cover early. CAMs vary greatly on potential for development along and ahead of the front with stronger signals maybe residing just SE of our area during the afternoon/eve hours as better upper level dynamics take time to catch up with the front.
DY3 slight risk is warranted at this point, but may change over the next 24 to 36 hours as the mesoscale impacts of Tuesday night's convection becomes more apparent. New blend of models expands the likely pops well NW to match where the better chance for storms may exist (SE third or so-roughly I-69 east) and lingers into Wednesday evening. This could very well be overdone, but given the proximity of the front can't entirely dismiss.
Frontal boundary will settle south of the area, with models continuing to indicate a weak disturbance edging north from TX Thursday evening towards the Ohio Valley for Friday. Additional waves move in from the northern Plains the rest of the weekend into early next week resulting in several period of slgt chc to chc pops over the holiday weekend. Don't think by any means it will be a washout, but something to monitor in the coming days. The cloud cover will help keep it somewhat cooler during the day (70s).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Showers and storms have weakened, and dry conditions will now prevail through the day Tuesday. VFR ceilings will persist through much of the day Tuesday, and southerly winds will pick up in the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible. Showers and storms will be likely Tuesday night (likely arriving in Indiana between 02-06Z), so chances for storms will need to be added in subsequent TAF forecasts as confidence increases.
Storms may be strong to severe overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, and the primary concern is strong, gusty winds.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 8 mi | 72 min | N 6G | 62°F | 29.92 | |||
| 45168 | 15 mi | 52 min | NNW 7.8G | 58°F | 59°F | 1 ft | 29.91 | 55°F |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 16 mi | 42 min | WNW 9.9G | 58°F | ||||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 41 mi | 54 min | SW 5.1G | 56°F | 59°F | 29.85 | 54°F | |
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 41 mi | 52 min | ENE 6G | 62°F | 29.87 | 59°F | ||
| 45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI | 43 mi | 42 min | SE 3.9G | 53°F | 51°F | 29.91 | 52°F | |
| 45029 | 48 mi | 52 min | WSW 5.8G | 55°F | 57°F | 2 ft | 55°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 7 sm | 19 min | calm | 9 sm | A Few Clouds | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.88 | |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 15 sm | 17 min | NNW 06 | 7 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 29.89 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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