Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 1:56 PM   Moonset 2:20 AM

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LEZ149 Expires:202405180215;;381868 Fzus51 Kcle 171938 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 338 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-180215- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 338 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Patchy dense fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Light and variable winds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 171955 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 355 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure aloft will slowly push a cold front across the region tonight and Saturday. The front will wash out over the Appalachians late Saturday followed by high pressure building in Saturday night. The high will remain in control through Tuesday before low pressure and a cold front approach by Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A weak but broad mid/upper trough remains across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon, with associated weak surface low pressure just south of James Bay extending a cold front through Lower Michigan and Indiana. Synoptic forcing and deep layer wind profiles are very weak, but upper-level diffluence and the right entrance region of a 75-85 knot H3 jet streak lifting through the southern Great Lakes generated widespread shower activity this morning since plenty of low-level moisture is in place. The steadiest showers are currently exiting far eastern Ohio and western PA coincident with the aforementioned jet streak lifting out of the region, but breaks in the cloud cover are generating weak to moderate instability characterized by SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg in NW and north central Ohio. This combined with continued low-level moisture (dew points low/mid 60s) and upper diffluence and low-level confluence ahead of the cold front is supporting the development of diurnal convection. Doppler radar and visible satellite loops show most of this developing from north central Ohio through the central highlands at the time, but development is also taking place in Lower Michigan away from the lakes. With all of this in mind, all areas could see passing showers or thundershowers this afternoon and evening, but the greatest potential is over the southern and eastern counties from roughly Mt. Vernon to Youngstown, so put the highest PoPs there through the evening. Since the flow aloft is weak, deep layer shear values will only be 10-15 knots, so severe weather is not expected. The only concern with the convection will be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized, nuisance flooding. PWATs remain in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range in much of the area which is around the 90th percentile of daily climatology for the date, and RAP forecast soundings show fairly tall, skinny CAPE with freezing levels a little above 700 mb. This combined with the weak flow profile and the flow parallel to the front will allow for some slow moving convective cells with efficient rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Any issues would likely be if convection can train.

The weak mid/upper trough axis will further weaken and move east of the region tonight and Saturday allowing shortwave ridging and broad surface high pressure to nudge in from the west by Saturday night, but it looks to be a slow process since two northern and southern stream weak troughs are pretty separated from the main jets aloft.
This will cause the weak cold front to slowly progress east and southeast across the region tonight and Saturday before washing out near the Appalachians. Most areas will dry out tonight, but with the front and associated low-level moisture taking their time exiting on Saturday, diurnally driven convection will develop again from late morning through the afternoon, mainly east of I-77. Coverage should however be less than today, but locally heavy downpours could occur.
All areas will dry out Saturday night as the high builds in.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to around 60, with highs Saturday in the upper 70s/low 80s in NW and north central Ohio where more sunshine occurs, but mid 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid/upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The weather pattern will shift to a hotter and more summer like for later this weekend into early next week. An upper level ridge of high pressure will develop and expand over the Ohio Valley region Sunday and Monday. The main storm track will shift northward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region for a few days. With high pressure in control, we will expect fair weather conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Sunday afternoon will range from the lower to middle 80s. There could be a light lake breeze Sunday afternoon closer to the lakeshore that may keep temperatures in the upper 70s. We will add another degree or two for Monday afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80s. We should stay dry Sunday through Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to remain in control of our weather on Tuesday keeping us very warm and dry. Temperatures will be once again in the middle to upper 80s. By Tuesday night, the upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to break down and a series of shortwave troughs will swing through the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week. A slow moving cold front will start to slide into the Lower Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley region late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will also be slightly cooler with the rain chances in the area Wednesday through early Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
Drier air is slowly working into western and northern areas this afternoon allowing KTOL, KFDY, and KCLE to mainly become VFR, but steadier showers continue farther south and east where MVFR remains prevalent at KCAK, KMFD, KYNG, and KERI. Expect the steadiest showers to continue to exit this afternoon, but scattered showers and a few pockets of thunder will redevelop, so carried VCSH at all sites into this evening before gradually ending from NW to SE. The theme should be better cigs and vis late this afternoon and evening with much more scattered shower coverage compared to this morning.

Moving into tonight, confidence continues to increase on impactful fog since most areas saw rainfall today, and there will be plenty of lingering low-level moisture and light/variable winds. Think mist will start lowering visibilities after 04Z, but the biggest risk for dense fog will be between 08 and 12Z, so used TEMPO groups. The fog and mist/low clouds should improve rather quickly Saturday morning.

SW winds of 5-10 knots this afternoon will become light and variable tonight into Saturday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Tuesday.

MARINE
Overall the weather forecast for Lake Erie will remain quiet this weekend into early next week. High pressure will return over the lake this weekend with a light northeast flow under 10 knots for the weekend. A warm front will lift across the lake Monday with a return of southeast flow over the lake. Southerly flow will continue to increase up to 15 knots Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system that will move through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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