Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Girard, PA
May 21, 2024 7:49 PM EDT (23:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 6:06 PM Moonset 3:36 AM |
LEZ149 Expires:202405212015;;600251 Fzus51 Kcle 211316 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 916 am edt Tue may 21 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-212015- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 916 am edt Tue may 21 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 916 am edt Tue may 21 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-212015- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 916 am edt Tue may 21 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 212314 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 714 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A strong low pressure system moving into northern Ontario will push a cold front into the region Wednesday morning and moving through later in the day Wednesday, stalling out along the Ohio River Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure Thursday. Another cold front stalls over northern Ohio Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
The lake breeze has begun to weaken and any shower/thunderstorm development along it has diminished. This should leave the area dry until late tonight when the cold front approaches the area from the west bringing with it the potential of some showers/storms. There were minor adjustments to the wind forecast to reflect the decaying lake breeze, but aside from that there were no other changes needed.
Previous Discussion...
Plenty of surface based instability with heating today with low level lapse rates over 7C/km, but there is clear evidence of mid level drying occurring as seen on the mid level water vapor satellite imagery. While a couple of isolated showers have formed along the lakeshore east of Cleveland and near Erie, PA, the thinking is that this drying will largely inhibit any large scale convection today. However, a few more isolated cells during the remainder of peaking heating cannot be completely ruled out along the lake breeze boundary.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system moving into the Mississippi Valley will continue an eastward track through the overnight hours.
Expecting a linear complex of storms to approach the western CWA after 09Z tonight, but the thought is that moving into northwest Ohio, these storms will likely be in a decaying phase. Cold front enters the CWA after 12Z. Depending on the morning convective debris moving eastward and how fast is dissolves out/moves out expecting quick destabilization in the late morning hours with convective initiation again after 15Z. Multiple forcing mechanisms possible here with the cold front, old outflow boundaries, and possible differential heating boundaries despite synoptic scale winds near the lakeshore. Track of the low pressure system will turn northward into the Thunder Bay region of northern Ontario and will be occluding. Will get a noticeable decrease in the low level jet strength Wednesday as a result with a lowering of the 0-6km shear.
Still have a wind threat with dry air above around 600mb that could enhance gusts where the dynamics in the column may not be as strong.
The best threat for severe is roughly east of the I-71 corridor, and still carry a slight risk from SPC for Wednesday. Some directional shear could produce some rotating storms as well. Cold front will ultimately be slow to exit the southeast zones into Wednesday night with the front well out ahead of the aforementioned occluding low.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The overall 500 mb mid level steering flow aloft will be west- southwesterly towards the end of the week. A slow moving and weak frontal boundary will be near central Ohio on Thursday. Afternoon heating will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to once again develop along and near this weak frontal boundary. The higher POPs will be closer to central Ohio and lesser values near the lakeshore areas. Thursday's high temperatures will be a little cooler than previous days but still in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes region on Friday. This shortwave trough will help the stalled frontal boundary over central or southern Ohio lift back as a warm front on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again with the warm front lifting through Friday afternoon and evening. High temps will be warmer in the lower to middle 80s on Friday.
A weak area of low pressure will track eastward across the Upper Great Lakes region late Friday night into Saturday. A trailing cold front will advance across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region late Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely ahead and along this frontal boundary late Friday night. It appears that this system will be coming through during the weakest thermodynamics and organized convection is not anticipated at this time.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will be pushing through during the first half of the day on Saturday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible early in the day before drier air moves in from the west. High pressure will build in over the area late Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Another shortwave trough will track across the Ohio Valley late Sunday into early Monday with another round of showers and storms. Temperatures will remain slightly above average through the weekend.
AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Mostly clear skies this evening will gradually become mostly cloudy tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Conditions should remain VFR through the period with the exception of any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead and along of the aforementioned cold front. An initial round of showers and isolated thunder is possible early Wednesday morning, especially for western terminals which may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR, but those conditions should remain scattered. The second round of precipitation and the better chance of thunderstorms will be along and east of I71 between 18-22Z Wednesday. Primary threat with the strongest storms will be gusty winds, but cannot rule out some hail mixing in. Within these showers, conditions may drop to MVFR again, but with the scattered nature of the convection, opted to handle it in TEMPOs for the terminals in the outlined area. Rain should end near the end of the period and allow dry conditions to return.
South-southwest winds will slowly increase over the next couple hours as the cold front approaches to be sustained at 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots. Behind the boundary on Wednesday late afternoon/evening, winds will shift to gain a more westerly component and weaken to 5-10 knots.
Outlook...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night and may bring a brief period of non-VFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday could also bring brief non-VFR conditions.
MARINE
A lake breeze has developed again near the lakeshore this afternoon.
This weak lake breeze will fizzle out closer to sunset this evening.
Winds should shift from the southeast under 10 knots this evening. A southwest flow of 10 to 15 knots will develop late tonight in response to an approaching cold front by Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish to 5 to 10 knots behind the front late Wednesday and briefly become westerly Wednesday night. Winds will shift from the south or southwest around 10 knots Thursday through early Friday.
East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots are expected Friday night through Saturday. No marine headlines for the lake are anticipated at this time through the weekend.
CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 714 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A strong low pressure system moving into northern Ontario will push a cold front into the region Wednesday morning and moving through later in the day Wednesday, stalling out along the Ohio River Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure Thursday. Another cold front stalls over northern Ohio Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
The lake breeze has begun to weaken and any shower/thunderstorm development along it has diminished. This should leave the area dry until late tonight when the cold front approaches the area from the west bringing with it the potential of some showers/storms. There were minor adjustments to the wind forecast to reflect the decaying lake breeze, but aside from that there were no other changes needed.
Previous Discussion...
Plenty of surface based instability with heating today with low level lapse rates over 7C/km, but there is clear evidence of mid level drying occurring as seen on the mid level water vapor satellite imagery. While a couple of isolated showers have formed along the lakeshore east of Cleveland and near Erie, PA, the thinking is that this drying will largely inhibit any large scale convection today. However, a few more isolated cells during the remainder of peaking heating cannot be completely ruled out along the lake breeze boundary.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system moving into the Mississippi Valley will continue an eastward track through the overnight hours.
Expecting a linear complex of storms to approach the western CWA after 09Z tonight, but the thought is that moving into northwest Ohio, these storms will likely be in a decaying phase. Cold front enters the CWA after 12Z. Depending on the morning convective debris moving eastward and how fast is dissolves out/moves out expecting quick destabilization in the late morning hours with convective initiation again after 15Z. Multiple forcing mechanisms possible here with the cold front, old outflow boundaries, and possible differential heating boundaries despite synoptic scale winds near the lakeshore. Track of the low pressure system will turn northward into the Thunder Bay region of northern Ontario and will be occluding. Will get a noticeable decrease in the low level jet strength Wednesday as a result with a lowering of the 0-6km shear.
Still have a wind threat with dry air above around 600mb that could enhance gusts where the dynamics in the column may not be as strong.
The best threat for severe is roughly east of the I-71 corridor, and still carry a slight risk from SPC for Wednesday. Some directional shear could produce some rotating storms as well. Cold front will ultimately be slow to exit the southeast zones into Wednesday night with the front well out ahead of the aforementioned occluding low.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The overall 500 mb mid level steering flow aloft will be west- southwesterly towards the end of the week. A slow moving and weak frontal boundary will be near central Ohio on Thursday. Afternoon heating will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to once again develop along and near this weak frontal boundary. The higher POPs will be closer to central Ohio and lesser values near the lakeshore areas. Thursday's high temperatures will be a little cooler than previous days but still in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
A shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes region on Friday. This shortwave trough will help the stalled frontal boundary over central or southern Ohio lift back as a warm front on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again with the warm front lifting through Friday afternoon and evening. High temps will be warmer in the lower to middle 80s on Friday.
A weak area of low pressure will track eastward across the Upper Great Lakes region late Friday night into Saturday. A trailing cold front will advance across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region late Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely ahead and along this frontal boundary late Friday night. It appears that this system will be coming through during the weakest thermodynamics and organized convection is not anticipated at this time.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will be pushing through during the first half of the day on Saturday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible early in the day before drier air moves in from the west. High pressure will build in over the area late Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Another shortwave trough will track across the Ohio Valley late Sunday into early Monday with another round of showers and storms. Temperatures will remain slightly above average through the weekend.
AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Mostly clear skies this evening will gradually become mostly cloudy tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Conditions should remain VFR through the period with the exception of any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead and along of the aforementioned cold front. An initial round of showers and isolated thunder is possible early Wednesday morning, especially for western terminals which may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR, but those conditions should remain scattered. The second round of precipitation and the better chance of thunderstorms will be along and east of I71 between 18-22Z Wednesday. Primary threat with the strongest storms will be gusty winds, but cannot rule out some hail mixing in. Within these showers, conditions may drop to MVFR again, but with the scattered nature of the convection, opted to handle it in TEMPOs for the terminals in the outlined area. Rain should end near the end of the period and allow dry conditions to return.
South-southwest winds will slowly increase over the next couple hours as the cold front approaches to be sustained at 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots. Behind the boundary on Wednesday late afternoon/evening, winds will shift to gain a more westerly component and weaken to 5-10 knots.
Outlook...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night and may bring a brief period of non-VFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday could also bring brief non-VFR conditions.
MARINE
A lake breeze has developed again near the lakeshore this afternoon.
This weak lake breeze will fizzle out closer to sunset this evening.
Winds should shift from the southeast under 10 knots this evening. A southwest flow of 10 to 15 knots will develop late tonight in response to an approaching cold front by Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish to 5 to 10 knots behind the front late Wednesday and briefly become westerly Wednesday night. Winds will shift from the south or southwest around 10 knots Thursday through early Friday.
East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots are expected Friday night through Saturday. No marine headlines for the lake are anticipated at this time through the weekend.
CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WCRP1 | 8 mi | 49 min | SSW 1.9G | 82°F | ||||
| CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 13 mi | 49 min | 0G | |||||
| EREP1 | 17 mi | 49 min | WSW 1.9G | |||||
| ASBO1 | 26 mi | 49 min | E 1G | |||||
| 45208 | 27 mi | 29 min | NE 1.9G | 74°F | 60°F | 0 ft | 29.80 | 62°F |
| NREP1 | 34 mi | 79 min | W 2.9G | 80°F | ||||
| GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH | 36 mi | 79 min | ENE 1.9G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KERI ERIE INTL/TOM RIDGE FIELD,PA | 10 sm | 58 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 57°F | 40% | 29.86 |
Buffalo, NY,
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