Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 1:59 PM   Moonset 2:18 AM

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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 256 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
.hazardous seas warning in effect through Saturday evening - .
Today - N wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt this morning, then 35 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Wave detail: nw 10 ft at 8 seconds, W 4 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds. Tonight - N wind 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Wave detail: nw 11 ft at 8 seconds, W 3 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 19 seconds. Sat - N wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Wave detail: nw 10 ft at 8 seconds and W 2 ft at 11 seconds. Sat night - N wind 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Wave detail: nw 10 ft at 7 seconds, W 2 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 20 seconds. Sun - N wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds, W 2 ft at 14 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Sun night - N wind 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts to 35 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Wave detail: nw 8 ft at 8 seconds, nw 3 ft at 13 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: nw 7 ft at 8 seconds, nw 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - N wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Wave detail: nw 8 ft at 8 seconds, W 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tue - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds, nw 3 ft at 16 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 7 seconds, nw 4 ft at 15 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds.

PZZ300 256 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of cape blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. As the thermal trough strengthens today, a brief period of gales is possible south of pistol river this afternoon. Conditions improve early next week as the thermal trough gets disrupted by an upper level pattern change.

FXUS66 KMFR 172146 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 246 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

SHORT TERM
Friday through Saturday night...An upper low will slide by northeast of the area today. This upper low will be followed by another upper low north of the area Saturday. Temperatures will be near normal and similar both Friday and Saturday. There will be less cloud cover inland Saturday morning compared to Friday morning. For Friday night and Saturday morning, low clouds should be mainly north of Cape Blanco on the coast and in the Umpqua Basin. Afternoon winds will be gustier Saturday, especially east of the Cascades. 700 mb (10,000 ft) winds are expected to be stronger as the 2nd upper low will be closer to the area.
Afternoon heating and mixing will create gustier surface winds between 2 and 8 pm Saturday.

LONG TERM
An upper level low will be in southwestern Canada and this will dip into the PNW this weekend. However, the placement of this dip Sunday will still be far enough for our area to see a large increase in precipitation chances. I have added a ~15% PoP from 00Z Sunday to 00Z Monday near the Lane-Douglas Cascades with a lower PoP added farther south in Douglas County to account for the ensembles supporting more of an isolated chance in these areas.

While this trough lowers, a cooldown will come for the day Sunday.
For comparison, temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to be slightly above normal near Medford and east with slightly below normal temperatures west. By Sunday all locations will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal. The spots that will see the largest cooldown will be east of the Cascades as they'll go from highs in the low 70s to the upper 50s on average.

By Tuesday an upper low will come from western Canada and this path will come closer to the western United States coast, so more impacts will be possible. For now, the PoPs have increased for more of southern Oregon in the Cascades and northern and central Lake and Klamath counties. A 300 mb northerly jet of 55-65 knots, but CAPEs are over 100 J/kg farther in eastern Oregon, so thunderstorm chances are under 15% with this precipitation chance. Rain chances will be highest in this area through Wednesday afternoon. Lingering rain chances will be kept in the long term, however with more disagreement on the placement of the trough during that time it could change. -Hermansen

AVIATION
17/18Z TAFs... Clouds have burned off over the last few hours with pretty clear skies and VFR conditions across the forecast area. The main concern will be LIFR ceilings along the coast later tonight as the boundary layer compresses.

-Smith



MARINE
Updated 230 PM Friday, May 17, 2024...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. Seas will be highest south of Cape Blanco around Brookings with waves reaching up to 10 to 12 feet and around 5 to 7 feet near Florence and Coos Bay. Seas will be a combination of fresh swell out of the northwest and some wind waves moving through the waters. Seas will remain hazardous to small crafts through the weekend and into early next week. Waves will remain low around 5 to 6 feet across all the waters around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

-Smith



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

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Brookings
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Fri -- 02:39 AM PDT     2.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM PDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:01 PM PDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Fri -- 02:35 AM PDT     2.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:18 PM PDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:00 PM PDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,