Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 6:03 PM   Moonset 3:28 AM

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FXUS66 KMFR 212334 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 254 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024

UPDATE
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

SHORT TERM
An upper low is seen in GOES-West satellite imagery digging southward through British Columbia this afternoon. This system is ushering a cold front into the PacNW this afternoon with radar showing widespread rain occuring across Washington and northwest through north-central Oregon.

Rain has progressed southward across western Oregon to a line roughly from Florence to Eugene as of 245 pm. Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight the center of the upper low will advance into south-central Washington and then into northeast Oregon by Wednesday afternoon. This transition will allow areas of rain and cooler air to spread into southwest Oregon but likely leaving most of the valleys south of the Umpqua Divide dry. Snow levels will dip to between 5000-5500 feet by about daybreak and by 10 am or so isolated areas from Crater Lake through Willamette Pass may see a skiff to up to an inch of snow on the gassy/wooded areas. Winter-related road impacts should be slim to none.

High temperatures Wednesday will wind up 5-15 degrees cooler than today's, coolest across the Oregon Cascades and the east side.
While temperatures will be cooler, the gusty northwest winds will be the main story that folks will likely talk about. Afternoon breezes on the order of 15-20 mph should be common across exposed areas of southwest Oregon and Western Siskiyou County. The mountains and east side will experience afternoon winds increasing to 20-30 mph with frequent higher gusts to 40 mph. Things quickly settle down with fair and warmer weather on tap for Thursday.
Stavish

LONG TERM
Friday through Monday, Memorial Day weekend. The main weather feature will be upper low which will move down the British Columbia coast on Friday. This low will drop into Washington Friday night into Saturday. There are differences in the strength of this low but timing is similar. This low will move away from the region late Saturday.

Much of Friday will be dry with this approaching system along with near normal temperatures. A cold front will pass through the region Saturday morning with a chance of showers mainly north of the Umpqua Divide. For those people traveling across the high passes, there could be a mix of rain and snow or even snow showers Saturday morning with snow levels falling to between 5500 and 5000 feet. No appreciable accumulation is expected on the roads. Conditions dry out Saturday afternoon as the upper low moves away from the area.
Saturday daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs in the 40s at Crater Lake, and 50s at Lake of the Woods and Howard Prairie. Conditions on Saturday could be similar to tomorrow (Wednesday) as the upper lows are of similar strength and their cold fronts are forecast to move through in the morning.

Temperatures should rebound to near normal readings on Sunday with weak high pressure possible. The models begin to differ more on Monday. Just over half the models show stronger high pressure nearby, a third of the models show high pressure farther east over the Idaho/Montana border, and a small percentage of the models show lower pressure which implies more clouds and cooler temperatures.
Right now, the warmer solutions are depicted in the forecast with highs in the lower 80s in the western valleys but this could change with updated forecasts.

To summarize: No heatwaves for the holiday weekend. Dry weather and near normal temperatures are forecast Friday (morning and afternoon), Sunday, and Monday. Saturday will likely see the most inclement weather, especially for those in the mountains with cooler temperatures and light rain or snow showers early in the day.
Sandler

AVIATION
22/00Z TAFs...Plenty of high clouds streaming into the region ahead of a weak disturbance, with MVFR ceilings starting to move into northwest Coos County. While this disturbance won't bring too much in the way of precipitation, it will strengthen the marine push into inland areas, with IFR/LIFR conditions at North Bend and MVFR ceilings moving into Roseburg this evening and possibly Medford late tonight. Confidence is fairly high for deteriorating conditions tonight as the disturbance comes into the region.

As the upper level disturbance moves southwards, northwesterly winds will start to increase aloft early Wednesday morning, and gusty winds will start to surface late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon, continuing through the TAF period. At the surface, winds will be strongest over ridges and east of the Cascades. -CSP

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Tuesday, May 21, 2024...Seas are anticipated to stay fairly consistent with current conditions through Wednesday with small fluctuations. Periods of small craft advisory conditions are expected through Wednesday evening. However, conditions will subside here and there before returning again. This is due to a low pressure system moving southward across Oregon.

By Thursday, we are expecting to see a break in hazardous conditions over the waters through the weekend. -Schaaf/Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:22 AM PDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM PDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 AM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:48 AM PDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM PDT     2.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:51 PM PDT     6.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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