Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 2:06 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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LEZ143 Expires:202405180815;;397628 Fzus51 Kcle 180205 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 1005 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-180815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 1005 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 10 knots or less. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 180220 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1020 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure aloft will slowly push a cold front across the region tonight and Saturday. The front will wash out over the Appalachians late Saturday followed by high pressure building in Saturday night. The high will remain in control through Tuesday before low pressure and a cold front approach by Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

10:19 PM EDT Update...

At time of writing, a broken line of showers/thunderstorms is continuing to persist E'ward across portions of NW PA, NE OH, and Mid-OH as the collective downshear outflow boundary interacts favorably with ambient, albeit weak, low-level vertical wind shear amidst sufficient boundary layer moisture and instability. Expect this convection to dissipate and/or exit our CWA by midnight tonight as mean mid-level flow remains W'erly and the boundary layer continues to stabilize via nocturnal cooling. A diffuse low-level convergence zone associated with a weak surface trough axis persists near a roughly Findlay to Mansfield to Meadville, PA line this late evening. This weak surface trough axis is expected to drift SE'ward and exit the rest of our CWA during the predawn hours of Saturday morning. Given continued boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling through daybreak Saturday morning, the potential for additional convection to blossom along this trough axis is limited, but non-zero. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is persisting generally S'ward over southeastern Lower MI, but expect this convection to dissipate before reaching our CWA due to aforementioned nocturnal boundary layer stabilization. However, will continue to watch this convection closely. Behind the weak surface trough, a weak and stabilizing surface ridge builds from the west and north through Saturday night, which is expected to allow fair weather to grace our entire CWA Updated POP's and sensible WX grids accordingly.

The other concern through most of Saturday morning is fog.
Nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low-level moisture, including that from recent rainfall, and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient will continue to permit the development/downward expansion of widespread stratus and radiation fog development the rest of this evening and especially early Saturday morning.
Also expect limited nocturnal cooling/resulting reduction in surface dew point depressions to allow at least patchy advection fog to develop over Lake Erie overnight tonight, especially east of roughly Avon Point, OH. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory where forecast confidence is greatest in the development of at least areas of dense fog by daybreak. The advisory is in effect from 12 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday. Any fog should dissipate by late Saturday morning, once diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer commences and taps into drier air aloft. However, some NWP models suggest at least patchy advection fog over Lake Erie may linger well into Saturday. The rest of the forecast remains valid. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion from 3:55 PM EDT...

A weak but broad mid/upper trough remains across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon, with associated weak surface low pressure just south of James Bay extending a cold front through Lower Michigan and Indiana. Synoptic forcing and deep layer wind profiles are very weak, but upper-level diffluence and the right entrance region of a 75-85 knot H3 jet streak lifting through the southern Great Lakes generated widespread shower activity this morning since plenty of low-level moisture is in place. The steadiest showers are currently exiting far eastern Ohio and western PA coincident with the aforementioned jet streak lifting out of the region, but breaks in the cloud cover are generating weak to moderate instability characterized by SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg in NW and north central Ohio. This combined with continued low-level moisture (dew points low/mid 60s) and upper diffluence and low-level confluence ahead of the cold front is supporting the development of diurnal convection. Doppler radar and visible satellite loops show most of this developing from north central Ohio through the central highlands at the time, but development is also taking place in Lower Michigan away from the lakes. With all of this in mind, all areas could see passing showers or thundershowers this afternoon and evening, but the greatest potential is over the southern and eastern counties from roughly Mt. Vernon to Youngstown, so put the highest PoPs there through the evening. Since the flow aloft is weak, deep layer shear values will only be 10-15 knots, so severe weather is not expected. The only concern with the convection will be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized, nuisance flooding. PWATs remain in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range in much of the area which is around the 90th percentile of daily climatology for the date, and RAP forecast soundings show fairly tall, skinny CAPE with freezing levels a little above 700 mb. This combined with the weak flow profile and the flow parallel to the front will allow for some slow moving convective cells with efficient rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Any issues would likely be if convection can train.

The weak mid/upper trough axis will further weaken and move east of the region tonight and Saturday allowing shortwave ridging and broad surface high pressure to nudge in from the west by Saturday night, but it looks to be a slow process since two northern and southern stream weak troughs are pretty separated from the main jets aloft.
This will cause the weak cold front to slowly progress east and southeast across the region tonight and Saturday before washing out near the Appalachians. Most areas will dry out tonight, but with the front and associated low-level moisture taking their time exiting on Saturday, diurnally driven convection will develop again from late morning through the afternoon, mainly east of I-77. Coverage should however be less than today, but locally heavy downpours could occur.
All areas will dry out Saturday night as the high builds in.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to around 60, with highs Saturday in the upper 70s/low 80s in NW and north central Ohio where more sunshine occurs, but mid 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA. Lows Saturday night will fall into the mid/upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The weather pattern will shift to a hotter and more summer like for later this weekend into early next week. An upper level ridge of high pressure will develop and expand over the Ohio Valley region Sunday and Monday. The main storm track will shift northward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region for a few days. With high pressure in control, we will expect fair weather conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Sunday afternoon will range from the lower to middle 80s. There could be a light lake breeze Sunday afternoon closer to the lakeshore that may keep temperatures in the upper 70s. We will add another degree or two for Monday afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80s. We should stay dry Sunday through Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will continue to remain in control of our weather on Tuesday keeping us very warm and dry. Temperatures will be once again in the middle to upper 80s. By Tuesday night, the upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to break down and a series of shortwave troughs will swing through the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week. A slow moving cold front will start to slide into the Lower Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley region late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely by the middle of next week.
Temperatures will also be slightly cooler with the rain chances in the area Wednesday through early Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Mainly VFR expected through 00Z/Sun. Aloft, a weak trough axis moves E'ward through our region between ~09Z/Sat and ~18Z/Sat.
Otherwise ridging precedes and follows the trough. At the surface, a weak trough affects our region through ~12Z/Sat.
Thereafter, a weak ridge builds from the west and north through 00Z/Sun. Our regional surface winds trend variable around 5 knots through the TAF period. However, a NW'erly to NE'erly lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots is expected to affect locations within several miles of Lake Erie from ~15Z/Sat through 00Z/Sun.
This includes KCLE and KERI.

A few showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are expected along/near a weak low-level convergence zone accompanying the aforementioned surface trough, especially before ~04Z/Sat. This convergence zone is expected to reside near a KFDY to KMFD to KGKJ corridor. Fair weather is likely region-wide after ~12Z/Sat.

Widespread low clouds and associated VFR ceilings early this evening are expected to expand and lower via nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low-level moisture. As a result, widespread MVFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to develop by this late evening or early Saturday morning. These low clouds are then expected to scatter-out or dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer tapping into drier air aloft late Saturday morning or early afternoon. Widespread mist and fog, and associated MVFR to LIFR visibility, are expected to develop late this evening or early Saturday morning. Mist/fog should then dissipate via the onset of diurnal heating by midday Saturday at the latest.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, but especially Monday night through Wednesday.

MARINE
Overall the weather forecast for Lake Erie will remain quiet this weekend into early next week. High pressure will return over the lake this weekend with a light northeast flow under 10 knots for the weekend. A warm front will lift across the lake Monday with a return of southeast flow over the lake. Southerly flow will continue to increase up to 15 knots Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system that will move through the Upper Great Lakes for the middle of the week. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ009>014- 019>023-089.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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