Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 6:13 PM   Moonset 3:46 AM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 916 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 211730 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 130 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the central United States will rapidly deepen over the Midwest today as the low reaches western Lake Superior tonight. A cold front from this well occluding low will move across the area on Wednesday and settle near the Ohio River on Thursday morning. High pressure will build behind the front for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
920 AM Update...
No changes this morning. Accus is dissolving, and expect some mid level drying to commence. This will work against the potential convective development later along the lake breeze.

Previous Discussion...
Another well above normal temperature day is on tap for today, as the forecast area resides in the warm sector of a deepening low pressure system that will move through the Midwest toward Lake Superior. Temperatures this morning will start not far off from average highs and will just accelerate from there back to the upper 80s to lower 90s and within close reach of record highs for today. The limiting factor on temperature potential will be the development of a lake breeze and scattered showers and storms off the lake boundary. There was some moderate success in convective initiation on Monday in Northwest Ohio and this tapered temperatures down a degree or two across that area, avoiding the 90 degree mark in some locations. For today, the best moisture pool will be shifted further east from North Central Ohio into Northwest PA and isolated to scattered showers and storms should develop along the boundary this afternoon mainly from Lorain County to NW PA but have an isolated mention further west toward Sandusky and Toledo. Large surface based instability and steep low level lapse rates across the region will allow for any storms to have potential to bring down some stronger winds. Any convection will subside with the diurnal cycle this evening and most of the tonight period will be dry with generally clear conditions and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Further west of the region today, a severe weather outbreak is expected across the Midwest closer to the low pressure system itself, as this system will be well supported by strong jet energy and moving into a warm, moist environment that will sustain a large thunderstorm complex. This complex will move east across the Great Lakes region tonight toward the forecast area. These storms will wane through the nighttime hours as loss of diurnal heating will stabilize the low levels of the atmosphere. However, enough jet energy should sustain convection well through northern Indiana and southern lower Michigan and there is a non-zero chance of thunder making it to Toledo before dawn on Wednesday. The remnants of this complex will play a key role in the severe weather and storm potential on Wednesday, as the forcing of this feature will likely be the focus for new storms over the forecast area. There is relatively high confidence in this feature generating convection across the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region. However, there remains some question on the timing and precise location where new convective initiation will be featured. The mean of guidance suggests that new showers and storms will initiate along and east of I-71 during Wednesday afternoon. However, some clusters of guidance members are more progressive and have convection reinvigorating further east and including less of the forecast area. Thus, the shift in the location of the now Day 2 Slight Risk for severe weather. Regardless, the thermodynamic environment is fairly favorable with about 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE over the eastern half of the area by Noon and dew points in the mid 60s. The dynamics of the setup are a little less favorable with 0-6 km bulk shear averaging 30 kt or so. Therefore, suspect convection to be wind hazard dominant and organization more with storm clusters and bowing segments vs. a well defined line of storms with a widespread wind threat. Large hail is also possible if an updraft can sustain itself, but it is a lesser hazard with this setup.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
There may be a brief lull in precipitation for the early part of Wednesday night before additional showers and thunderstorms develop along the cold front near or shortly after Midnight. At this point, the atmosphere will be pretty worked over from any afternoon convection and there won't be much instability to work with so do not anticipate a continued severe weather risk. With that being said, precipitable water values will still be well above normal and soils may be saturated from earlier heavy rainfall so will need to keep an eye on the heavy rain/flooding potential. Showers/storms should be progressive so the risk of training and the overall flooding risk are low at this time. The front may be a bit slow to exit southeastern zones on Thursday so there may be some lingering showers/thunderstorms primarily south of the U.S. 30 corridor through Thursday afternoon before weak high pressure very briefly builds in from the northwest for Thursday night.

By Friday, a shortwave will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley as a vertically stacked low begins to develop across the Upper Midwest.
There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the shortwave tracks; 00Z guidance has trended a bit farther north, but would like to see a bit more consistency amongst runs before increasing PoPs. Have chance PoPs Friday and Friday night with higher PoPs to the south for the time being, but will continue to refine as confidence increases.

Generally expect above normal temperatures through the short term period with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The aforementioned vertically stacked low will lift north Saturday and quasi zonal flow will likely develop across the region for the start of the weekend. A few shortwaves may ripple across the area through Sunday as a warm front begins to lift into the region and from there guidance diverges quite a bit with additional shortwaves or perhaps a more synoptically robust system on the table for the latter half of Sunday through Monday. Regardless, there could be periodic showers and thunderstorms throughout the long term period with the highest precip chances with better forcing on Monday.
Temperatures won't change much from the short term period with maximum temps in the 70s and 80s and minimum temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s likely.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
Scattered cumulus cloud field this afternoon will yield a isolated showers/storms, primarily along and just inland of the lakeshore. Mid level dry air intrusion will limit the amount of convection for the remainder of the afternoon, but the threat is non-zero going forward. Chances end after 00Z Wednesday.
Thunderstorms moving in from the west will enter NW OH after 09Z Wednesday, likely in a decaying stage as they near FDY/TOL.
Covering with SHRA for now. Cold front enters from the wet, and the return of daytime heating enhances thunderstorm potential after 16Z Wednesday, mainly east of CLE to MFD line. Wind gusts 15-25kts today, and again ahead of the cold front Wednesday.

Outlook...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night and may bring a brief period of non-VFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday could bring brief non-VFR conditions.

MARINE
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots will prevail across the majority of the lake for most of today before a lake breeze produces onshore flow in the nearshore zones this afternoon. Winds should shift to the southeast this evening, but expect southwest flow to develop in response to an approaching cold front by Wednesday morning with winds increasing to around 15 knots. Behind the front, winds diminish to 5 to 10 knots and briefly become westerly Wednesday night before shifting to the south/southwest Thursday into the first half of Friday. Anticipate east/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots for Friday night through Saturday. As of now, no marine headlines are expected unless winds trend higher with the deep warm air advection on Wednesday.

CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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