Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mystic, CT
May 17, 2024 10:50 PM EDT (02:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:21 PM Moonset 2:46 AM |
ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 610 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of drizzle after midnight.
Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of drizzle in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 610 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Weak high pressure remains over the region into Saturday night. A weakening trough of low pressure approaches from the west and dissipates by Saturday evening. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 180025 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 825 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure remains over the region into Saturday night.
A weakening trough of low pressure approaches from the west and dissipates by Saturday evening. Otherwise, high pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Forecast on track this evening.
A northeast to east flow will bring low level moisture into region tonight into Saturday morning. And with some weak low level convergence and lift light drizzle will be possible.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will be moving very slowly east and weaken tonight into Saturday. And by Saturday morning a few showers may move into the western portion of the region with some weak lift with the trough. The offshore low weakens Saturday afternoon with lift ending, so end the chances for drizzle by then.
With little airmass change overnight temperatures will be similar tonight to Friday morning's lows. And with more clouds and the easterly flow high temperatures Saturday will be around 5 degrees below seasonal normals.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weakening surface trough to the west may move into the region, and into the surface ridge, and then dissipate Saturday night. Any lift and showers with this system will then be ending. Otherwise, weak high pressure remains in control.
Once again with little airmass change temperatures Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 50s across the region.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*
*Mainly dry with above temperatures Sunday through next week.
*A cold front approaches late in the week with the next chance at showers, possibly thunderstorms, Wednesday night through Thursday.
Relatively quiet weather is expected Sunday through the middle of the week. Ridging both aloft and the surface will begin building over the northeast on Sunday and should remain in control through Wednesday. The modeling continues to signal the break down of the ridge late Wednesday as an upper level trough heads east from the Rockies towards the Great Lakes. There is relatively good agreement for this shortwave to move across the region sometime late in the week. However, the guidance is not in agreement on its amplitude and timing, which impacts the strength of a cold front. This cold front should approach late in the week bringing an increase in chances for showers and possibly Thunderstorms. Will continue to use the NBM given the time range, which looked reasonable for PoPs Wednesday night into Thursday night. The consensus indicates the front should be moving through on Thursday, but this could speed up or slow down, especially with uncertainty with the aforementioned trough and weakening of the ridge.
Mainly used the NBM deterministic for temperatures, but blended in the 50th percentile for Monday through Thursday. There is a fair amount of temperature spread, and the NBM deterministic is lying closer to the 25th percentile. This is most prominent away from the immediate coast where temperatures typically are warmer during onshore flow days. The onshore flow should keep coastal locations in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but elsewhere should be able to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures could be even warmer (middle to upper 80s away from the coast), especially if the flow takes on a more westerly component ahead of the front Wednesday or Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure will be in place through Saturday.
VFR through this evening. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight across the eastern terminals (KGON, KISP, and KBDR).
Chances for MVFR ceilings have lowered for points west. Have removed MVFR ceilings for the city terminals, and went with TEMPO group instead.
Winds become light and variable for a short time tonight. Winds then prevail mostly NE overnight. Winds remain mostly NE 5-10kt on Saturday into Saturday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty exists in how far west MVFR ceilings reach late tonight into Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. MVFR for eastern terminals.
Sunday...VFR. MVFR or lower could persist at the eastern terminals all day.
Monday...VFR
Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet remain elevated, at 5 to 6 feet, with a east to southeast 8 second swell from weak low pressure meandering south of Nova Scotia. The low weakens further during Saturday. Ocean seas will take awhile to subside, and have extended the SCA from Fire Island to Moriches Inlet until midnight, and to the east of Moriches Inlet until 1000 AM Saturday. Then Saturday afternoon and Saturday night winds and seas remain below advisory levels. On the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels tonight through Saturday night.
A weak pressure gradient over the waters will lead to conditions below SCA levels Sunday through the middle of next week.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ353.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 825 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure remains over the region into Saturday night.
A weakening trough of low pressure approaches from the west and dissipates by Saturday evening. Otherwise, high pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Forecast on track this evening.
A northeast to east flow will bring low level moisture into region tonight into Saturday morning. And with some weak low level convergence and lift light drizzle will be possible.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will be moving very slowly east and weaken tonight into Saturday. And by Saturday morning a few showers may move into the western portion of the region with some weak lift with the trough. The offshore low weakens Saturday afternoon with lift ending, so end the chances for drizzle by then.
With little airmass change overnight temperatures will be similar tonight to Friday morning's lows. And with more clouds and the easterly flow high temperatures Saturday will be around 5 degrees below seasonal normals.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weakening surface trough to the west may move into the region, and into the surface ridge, and then dissipate Saturday night. Any lift and showers with this system will then be ending. Otherwise, weak high pressure remains in control.
Once again with little airmass change temperatures Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 50s across the region.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*
*Mainly dry with above temperatures Sunday through next week.
*A cold front approaches late in the week with the next chance at showers, possibly thunderstorms, Wednesday night through Thursday.
Relatively quiet weather is expected Sunday through the middle of the week. Ridging both aloft and the surface will begin building over the northeast on Sunday and should remain in control through Wednesday. The modeling continues to signal the break down of the ridge late Wednesday as an upper level trough heads east from the Rockies towards the Great Lakes. There is relatively good agreement for this shortwave to move across the region sometime late in the week. However, the guidance is not in agreement on its amplitude and timing, which impacts the strength of a cold front. This cold front should approach late in the week bringing an increase in chances for showers and possibly Thunderstorms. Will continue to use the NBM given the time range, which looked reasonable for PoPs Wednesday night into Thursday night. The consensus indicates the front should be moving through on Thursday, but this could speed up or slow down, especially with uncertainty with the aforementioned trough and weakening of the ridge.
Mainly used the NBM deterministic for temperatures, but blended in the 50th percentile for Monday through Thursday. There is a fair amount of temperature spread, and the NBM deterministic is lying closer to the 25th percentile. This is most prominent away from the immediate coast where temperatures typically are warmer during onshore flow days. The onshore flow should keep coastal locations in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but elsewhere should be able to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures could be even warmer (middle to upper 80s away from the coast), especially if the flow takes on a more westerly component ahead of the front Wednesday or Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure will be in place through Saturday.
VFR through this evening. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight across the eastern terminals (KGON, KISP, and KBDR).
Chances for MVFR ceilings have lowered for points west. Have removed MVFR ceilings for the city terminals, and went with TEMPO group instead.
Winds become light and variable for a short time tonight. Winds then prevail mostly NE overnight. Winds remain mostly NE 5-10kt on Saturday into Saturday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty exists in how far west MVFR ceilings reach late tonight into Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. MVFR for eastern terminals.
Sunday...VFR. MVFR or lower could persist at the eastern terminals all day.
Monday...VFR
Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet remain elevated, at 5 to 6 feet, with a east to southeast 8 second swell from weak low pressure meandering south of Nova Scotia. The low weakens further during Saturday. Ocean seas will take awhile to subside, and have extended the SCA from Fire Island to Moriches Inlet until midnight, and to the east of Moriches Inlet until 1000 AM Saturday. Then Saturday afternoon and Saturday night winds and seas remain below advisory levels. On the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels tonight through Saturday night.
A weak pressure gradient over the waters will lead to conditions below SCA levels Sunday through the middle of next week.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ353.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 6 mi | 185 min | ENE 13G | 66°F | ||||
NLHC3 | 7 mi | 50 min | 63°F | 65°F | 29.95 | |||
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 20 mi | 50 min | 60°F | 53°F | 29.90 | |||
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 34 mi | 50 min | NNE 15G | 58°F | 29.98 | |||
PDVR1 | 35 mi | 50 min | NNW 11G | 59°F | 29.96 | 47°F | ||
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI | 36 mi | 50 min | N 8G | 58°F | 57°F | 29.97 | ||
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI | 39 mi | 65 min | E 8.9 | 58°F | 29.98 | 51°F | ||
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI | 39 mi | 50 min | NE 7G | 57°F | 30.00 | |||
PRUR1 | 40 mi | 50 min | 57°F | 50°F | ||||
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI | 42 mi | 50 min | NNW 12G | 56°F | 60°F | 29.98 | ||
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI | 44 mi | 50 min | N 8.9G | 58°F | 56°F | 29.99 | ||
PVDR1 | 44 mi | 50 min | N 6G | 58°F | 30.00 | 48°F | ||
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA | 49 mi | 50 min | NNE 7G | 57°F | 29.98 | |||
FRXM3 | 49 mi | 50 min | 57°F | 50°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT HIDE  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 4 sm | 54 min | NNE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 48°F | 56% | 29.95 | |
KWST WESTERLY STATE,RI | 9 sm | 57 min | NNE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 45°F | 52% | 29.96 | |
KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 18 sm | 56 min | NE 04 | -- | 59°F | 50°F | 72% | 29.96 | ||
KBID BLOCK ISLAND STATE,RI | 24 sm | 54 min | NNE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 48°F | 77% | 29.96 |
Tide / Current for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT 2.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:05 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT 2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT 2.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:05 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT 2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet
12 am |
0.7 |
1 am |
0.9 |
2 am |
1.2 |
3 am |
1.5 |
4 am |
1.8 |
5 am |
2.1 |
6 am |
2.1 |
7 am |
1.9 |
8 am |
1.7 |
9 am |
1.4 |
10 am |
1.1 |
11 am |
0.7 |
12 pm |
0.5 |
1 pm |
0.7 |
2 pm |
1 |
3 pm |
1.5 |
4 pm |
1.9 |
5 pm |
2.2 |
6 pm |
2.3 |
7 pm |
2.3 |
8 pm |
2.1 |
9 pm |
1.8 |
10 pm |
1.4 |
11 pm |
1 |
The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT 1.78 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:52 AM EDT -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:05 PM EDT 2.05 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT -2.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:53 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT 1.78 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:52 AM EDT -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:09 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:05 PM EDT 2.05 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT -2.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
12 am |
-1.7 |
1 am |
-0.9 |
2 am |
0.1 |
3 am |
1.1 |
4 am |
1.7 |
5 am |
1.8 |
6 am |
1.5 |
7 am |
0.9 |
8 am |
-0.1 |
9 am |
-1.2 |
10 am |
-2 |
11 am |
-2.2 |
12 pm |
-1.9 |
1 pm |
-1.2 |
2 pm |
-0.2 |
3 pm |
0.9 |
4 pm |
1.8 |
5 pm |
2 |
6 pm |
1.9 |
7 pm |
1.4 |
8 pm |
0.5 |
9 pm |
-0.7 |
10 pm |
-1.8 |
11 pm |
-2.3 |
Boston, MA,
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