Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:47 PM   Moonset 3:21 AM

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FXUS61 KCTP 211118 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 718 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Surge of summerlike warmth and humidity through midweek *Strong to severe t-storms possible Wednesday afternoon *Seasonably warm & unsettled Thursday through Memorial Day

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Patchy fog and low stratus in the southern Alleghenies and middle to lower Susquehanna Valley will dissipate within the next hour or two as temps warm quickly into the mid 70s by 10AM/15Z.

Expect a mix of clouds and sun through the rest of today with very warm temperatures for this time of year. Fcst highs will be a few degrees warmer vs. yesterday reaching the low to mid 80s or ~10-15F above late May climo/making it feel like Summertime.
We can't rule out a stray shower/t-storm with the heating of the day primarily over the western and northern higher terrain -- however most locations will stay dry.

Mainly clear to partly cloudy and comfortable tonight with patchy valley fog and min temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with summerlike to near record max temps forecast in the mid to upper 80s. See the climate section of the AFD to find out which sites have the best shot at tying or setting a new daily record high for 5/22.

The surge in summerlike warmth will combine with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s to support moderate destablization Wednesday afternoon with MLCAPE values progged in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. While 0-6km shear values are fcst to remain <30kts over most of CPA, the instability/steep lapse rates may be sufficient to support isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts with t-storms into the early evening. SPC has upgraded the northwest 1/2 of the CWA to a Slight risk or severe t-storm risk level 2 out of 5. The CAMs show t-storm clusters developing ahead of an eastward advancing cold front/near a leading pre frontal trough and moving west to east across the area from around midday through the late evening. Remnant MCVs associated with Day 1/Tue convection may also provide additional forcing for ascent as they propagate into the Lower Great Lakes within southwesterly flow aloft. More showers and t-storms are likely on Thursday as the primary cold front slowly moves through the area and settles near the MD line Thursday night. The focus for stronger storms shifts into far southeastern PA on Thursday afternoon with the D3 MRGL SWO just clipping Lancaster County.

High temps will cool off a bit over most of CPA on Thursday into the mid 70s to lower 80s, but remain above climo for this time of year. Low temps Thursday night/AM Friday in the 55-65F range will not be as warm/humid as Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Temperatures should remain on the mild side through the end of the week. The cold front will come through on Thursday and then stall just south of PA on Friday. The proximity of the stalled front will result in a continued chance of scattered showers and t-storms for at least southern PA.

There remains some uncertainty in the forecast heading into the Memorial Day weekend, but it appears that Central PA's weather could remain mild but showery.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Patchy fog is present across some of the Lower Susquehanna Valley for the early morning hours today. These visibility restrictions should rise quickly after 8 AM.

VFR and calm winds will prevail for most of Tuesday after the early morning fog lifts out of the region. There are a few scattered showers possible for the NW PA, but their coverage remains low and confidence is too low to include them in the BFD TAF other than a mention of VCSH. The next chance for significant convection will be Wednesday night with a slight risk for severe weather in place across NW PA.

Outlook...

Wed...Scattered t-storms, stronger storms NW.

Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri-Sat...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

CLIMATE
Daily record maximum temperatures for 5/22:

Harrisburg 96/1941 Williamsport 95/1941 Altoona 88/2013 Bradford 84/2013 State College 89/1975

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Market Street Bridge
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Tue -- 12:44 AM EDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:05 PM EDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Norwood City
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EDT     6.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:52 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Norwood City, Darby Creek, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

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