Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mansfield, OH
May 21, 2024 4:06 AM EDT (08:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 6:13 PM Moonset 3:48 AM |
LEZ144 Expires:202405210215;;556329 Fzus51 Kcle 201939 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 339 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-210215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 339 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 339 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-210215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 339 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.
LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 210603 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track northeast across the Plains Tuesday, extending a cold front east across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will return for Thursday, followed by another cold front Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures that cooled quicker than previously forecast, but no other changes were needed with this update.
630 PM Update...
There remains a potential for a few isolated strong thunderstorms in NW OH where the lake breeze continues to interact with convection lifting northeast through the area.
Overall threat for severe remains limited, especially with the sun setting, but will continue to monitor the ongoing convection. These storms should end over the next couple hours, leaving the remainder of tonight dry as upstream convection is not expected to move into the area. Only minor tweaks were made with this update to highlight the area of greatest potential of storms this evening, but the remainder of the forecast is unchanged.
Previous Discussion...
The severe thunderstorm across NW OH has exited land with recent satellite and radar trends suggesting a weakening trend as it continues north across Lake Erie. Otherwise, could see additional isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm coverage further east, mainly associated with the lake breeze near the lakeshore. However, low-level moisture is much more limited further east and southeast, evident by larger T/Td spreads and deeper mixing.
Following sunset, dry conditions should primarily exist overnight and into Tuesday morning, although we'll need to watch residual outflow/lingering showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west overnight. Otherwise, the dynamics that generated thunderstorms today will be similar for Tuesday afternoon and evening, largely lake-breeze driven with limited large- scale forcing evident. However, expecting initiation further east this time as enhanced low- level moisture pools across North and Northeast Ohio, coupled with marginal MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, weak shear less than 20 knots, and steep 0-3 km lapse rates ranging between 8-9 C/km. Once again, we'll need to watch for residual outflow/showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west Tuesday night.
Near record-highs are possible again for Tuesday across the area, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move into the western and Upper Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. The Ohio Valley region will be in a southwesterly deep-layer flow with an enhanced vorticity maxima moving along in the flow. A cold front will slowly sag southeastward through the lower and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and night. A moist and unstable airmass ahead of the slow moving frontal boundary will become destabilized on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Surface dewpoints will rise into the middle 60s. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be around 7 C/km. Moderate destabilization will be possible with MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be modest around 35 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely with a few of them possibly severe with isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail possible Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Afternoon high temperatures will max out once again in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday before convection develops.
The slow moving cold front will reach central and southern Ohio on Thursday. We will maintain higher POPs for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday for areas along and south of Highway 30 and lesser values closer to the lakeshore. Weak high pressure tries to build in Thursday night with a slight drying trend. High temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler in the middle to upper 70s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast by next weekend is a little uncertain given the erratic westerly flow beyond day 5. It appears we may have a weak area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday with a fair weather day. High temperature will be in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. The Ohio Valley region will remain a psuedo deep layer southwesterly flow aloft. The next impulse in that flow may arrive over the weekend of by the later half with the next round of showers and storms. Temperatures will remain above average for next weekend.
AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR conditions should be expected at the terminals for the TAF period today. Some mid and high level clouds will move through the region early this morning with southerly flow. Some clearing will occur later this morning before a lake breeze develops and some diurnal cumulus forms across the region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected in the lake breeze areas this afternoon and have a brief VCTS at KCLE for possible TS in the area. Other terminals remain low confidence for a TS mention at this time. Winds will be southwesterly this afternoon with a shift to the west then north with the lake breeze at KCLE and KERI. Convection and cumulus will fade with sunset this evening and southerly flow with largely clear conditions will be expected to end the TAF period.
Outlook...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night and may bring a brief period of non-VFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday could bring brief non-VFR conditions.
MARINE
There is a weak lake breeze near the lakeshore this afternoon. This lake breeze should wash out by sunset this evening. A warm front will move northward across the lake this evening. A weak low will pass north of the lake tonight and allow for south to southwest flow up to 10 knots to return over Lake Erie. A slightly stronger low pressure system will develop over the Upper Midwest Tuesday and the pressure gradient will increase across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly to southwesterly winds will strengthen up to 20 knots. The southwest flow on Wednesday afternoon could mix pretty well and wind speeds may be close to SCA headline. A slow moving cold front will extend across the lake on Wednesday night and winds will shift from the west and then north as high pressure builds over the lake on Thursday. The surface high will move east of the lake on Friday and northeast flow will be favored.
CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today and Tuesday.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track northeast across the Plains Tuesday, extending a cold front east across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will return for Thursday, followed by another cold front Thursday night into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures that cooled quicker than previously forecast, but no other changes were needed with this update.
630 PM Update...
There remains a potential for a few isolated strong thunderstorms in NW OH where the lake breeze continues to interact with convection lifting northeast through the area.
Overall threat for severe remains limited, especially with the sun setting, but will continue to monitor the ongoing convection. These storms should end over the next couple hours, leaving the remainder of tonight dry as upstream convection is not expected to move into the area. Only minor tweaks were made with this update to highlight the area of greatest potential of storms this evening, but the remainder of the forecast is unchanged.
Previous Discussion...
The severe thunderstorm across NW OH has exited land with recent satellite and radar trends suggesting a weakening trend as it continues north across Lake Erie. Otherwise, could see additional isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm coverage further east, mainly associated with the lake breeze near the lakeshore. However, low-level moisture is much more limited further east and southeast, evident by larger T/Td spreads and deeper mixing.
Following sunset, dry conditions should primarily exist overnight and into Tuesday morning, although we'll need to watch residual outflow/lingering showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west overnight. Otherwise, the dynamics that generated thunderstorms today will be similar for Tuesday afternoon and evening, largely lake-breeze driven with limited large- scale forcing evident. However, expecting initiation further east this time as enhanced low- level moisture pools across North and Northeast Ohio, coupled with marginal MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, weak shear less than 20 knots, and steep 0-3 km lapse rates ranging between 8-9 C/km. Once again, we'll need to watch for residual outflow/showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west Tuesday night.
Near record-highs are possible again for Tuesday across the area, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move into the western and Upper Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. The Ohio Valley region will be in a southwesterly deep-layer flow with an enhanced vorticity maxima moving along in the flow. A cold front will slowly sag southeastward through the lower and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday afternoon and night. A moist and unstable airmass ahead of the slow moving frontal boundary will become destabilized on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Surface dewpoints will rise into the middle 60s. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be around 7 C/km. Moderate destabilization will be possible with MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be modest around 35 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely with a few of them possibly severe with isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail possible Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Afternoon high temperatures will max out once again in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday before convection develops.
The slow moving cold front will reach central and southern Ohio on Thursday. We will maintain higher POPs for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday for areas along and south of Highway 30 and lesser values closer to the lakeshore. Weak high pressure tries to build in Thursday night with a slight drying trend. High temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler in the middle to upper 70s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast by next weekend is a little uncertain given the erratic westerly flow beyond day 5. It appears we may have a weak area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday with a fair weather day. High temperature will be in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. The Ohio Valley region will remain a psuedo deep layer southwesterly flow aloft. The next impulse in that flow may arrive over the weekend of by the later half with the next round of showers and storms. Temperatures will remain above average for next weekend.
AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR conditions should be expected at the terminals for the TAF period today. Some mid and high level clouds will move through the region early this morning with southerly flow. Some clearing will occur later this morning before a lake breeze develops and some diurnal cumulus forms across the region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected in the lake breeze areas this afternoon and have a brief VCTS at KCLE for possible TS in the area. Other terminals remain low confidence for a TS mention at this time. Winds will be southwesterly this afternoon with a shift to the west then north with the lake breeze at KCLE and KERI. Convection and cumulus will fade with sunset this evening and southerly flow with largely clear conditions will be expected to end the TAF period.
Outlook...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night and may bring a brief period of non-VFR conditions. Scattered showers and storms on Friday and Saturday could bring brief non-VFR conditions.
MARINE
There is a weak lake breeze near the lakeshore this afternoon. This lake breeze should wash out by sunset this evening. A warm front will move northward across the lake this evening. A weak low will pass north of the lake tonight and allow for south to southwest flow up to 10 knots to return over Lake Erie. A slightly stronger low pressure system will develop over the Upper Midwest Tuesday and the pressure gradient will increase across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly to southwesterly winds will strengthen up to 20 knots. The southwest flow on Wednesday afternoon could mix pretty well and wind speeds may be close to SCA headline. A slow moving cold front will extend across the lake on Wednesday night and winds will shift from the west and then north as high pressure builds over the lake on Thursday. The surface high will move east of the lake on Friday and northeast flow will be favored.
CLIMATE
High temperatures will approach record values today and Tuesday.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-21 93(1941) 89(1941) 89(1941) 91(1934) 89(1934) 88(1911)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OWMO1 | 34 mi | 67 min | SW 6 | 74°F | 58°F | |||
| OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH | 42 mi | 82 min | SW 1 | 73°F | 29.89 | 60°F | ||
| 45203 | 43 mi | 37 min | WSW 5.8G | 73°F | 67°F | 0 ft | 63°F | |
| HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH | 44 mi | 67 min | SW 8G | 74°F | 29.84 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFD MANSFIELD LAHM RGNL,OH | 4 sm | 14 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 57°F | 73% | 29.93 |
Cleveland, OH,
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