Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Patchogue, NY
May 21, 2024 9:31 PM EDT (01:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:27 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 6:33 PM Moonset 4:08 AM |
ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 622 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the evening.
Fri - W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 622 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will be in control through Wednesday night, then give way to an approaching cold front on Thursday. This cold front will weaken as it moves in Thursday into early Friday. The front will eventually dissipate south of long island Friday. Weak high pressure returns from the north Friday into Friday night. Another low pressure system approaches from the west for Saturday. Its associated cold front moves across Saturday night. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday before more frontal systems potentially impact the area for early next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 212350 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the coast will be in control through Wednesday night. A cold front will approach on Thursday and weaken as it moves into the area Thursday night into early Friday. The front will eventually dissipate south of Long Island on Friday as weak high pressure returns from the north.
Another low pressure system will approach from the west for Saturday. Its associated cold front will move across Saturday night. Weak high pressure will return for Sunday before more frontal systems potentially impact the area early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Just some minor adjustments made to hourly temperatures, dewpoints, fog and cloud coverage for tonight. Forecast overall remains on track.
Mostly clear skies over most of the area, with some sct Cu over the higher elevations NW of NYC and along the sea breeze in NJ.
Skies should remain mostly clear through tonight except perhaps over parts of coastal CT and the forks of Long Island which could see some fog development late tonight. Confidence in this not very high as winds veer SW tonight.
Low temps will range widely from east to west, from the lower 50s across the forks of Long Island and SE CT, to the mid/upper 50s most elsewhere, and lower/mid 60s for NYC and NE NJ.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The high will remain in place daytime Wed, with more widespread warmth as low level flow will be SW rather than S. Most areas north/west of NYC should see high temps in the mid/upper 80s, with 80-85 for most of NYC and interior CT, and 70s across Long Island and coastal CT. Most of the south shore of Long Island however may not make it any higher than the upper 60s.
A pre-frontal trough and associated mid level shortwave trough approach late Wed night and may bring a few showers/tstms mainly to areas from the NYC metro area north/west. Lows Wed night will once again vary from east to west, with 55-60 for Long Island and S CT, lower 60s most elsewhere, and mid 60s for NE NJ.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points:
* Very warm day Thursday upper 70s to near 90 for high temperatures. Lower 90s heat indices for parts of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT.
* Marginal strong to severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday into Thursday night.
* Potential for some rounds of showers for the holiday weekend.
Upper levels feature a SW to NE jet streak of which its right rear quad will be more in the central to northern New England Thursday into Thursday night. Relatively weak jet level winds are forecast over the area Friday into the weekend but another jet streak moving north of the area Sunday night. Then SW flow in jet levels early next week with a longer wavelength trough approaching the Eastern Seaboard towards the middle of next week.
At the surface, a parent low fills in while moving farther northeast within Ontario Thursday. Its associated cold front will weaken as it approaches the local region. Before the arrival of the cold front, there will likely be a pre-frontal trough making for early day showers and thunderstorms north and west of NYC.
Regarding the thunderstorms, some of them have the possibility of being strong to severe with hail and strong wind gusts for the entire forecast area. However, higher severe chances near NYC and locations to the north and west, including Western Long Island, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. From NCAR Ensemble Forecasts 00Z 5/20/24 initialization, highest CAPE Thursday across most interior places, towards Passaic NJ, Orange NY, Putnam NY, Rockland NY, Northern Westchester NY, Northern Fairfield CT (around 1500 J/kg). Convective inhibition is shown to the east. 0-6 km AGL bulk shear as shown by different forecast models getting to range of 30-40 kt, allowing for some organization of convection with strong downburst potential.
Farther west locations are forecast to have more CAPE, driving the downburst potential with thunderstorms as well as greater vertical development for hail growth.
Lots of uncertainty on timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms. Not much rainfall total, approximately 0.25 inch or less. CAPE is highest in the 2 to 8PM timeframe so would think this would be the window for much of the strong to severe thunderstorm potential. General timeframe between 2PM and 8PM from NW to SE for the thunderstorms to develop, grow and move southeast. The convective mode will probably be a broken squall line or a combination of convective clusters as well as a broken squall line.
Parent low filling in Thursday within Ontario, decreasing pressure over time, resulting weakening of cold front moving through the area. Some models are indicating the front slows down and stalls out as well as dissipate within the region. The front is therefore becoming less well defined with time.
May very well be a situation where Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut do not receive any rainfall Thursday into Thursday night as the more maritime environment stabilizes the low levels enough for approaching showers and thunderstorms to breakup and weaken as they approach.
Weak high pressure follows for Friday into Friday night. Some shower chances remain early for coastal sections, especially Long Island but drying conditions are expected going into the afternoon. Dry conditions continue until late Friday night. This is when another low pressure system will be approaching from the west. More rain showers are in the forecast and these are forecast as well for Saturday with possibly a few thunderstorms with daytime heating. Chances for showers continue Saturday night with an associated cold front moving across.
Weak high pressure returns for Sunday into Sunday night with mainly dry conditions much of the time. Showers return to the forecast late Sunday night into early next week with another frontal system approaching.
Temperatures gradually on a cooling trend over the course of the long term, staying above normal Thursday through Sunday but near to below normal for early next week.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains in control and just offshore through Wednesday evening.
Mainly VFR through Wednesday. Chances for sub VFR conditions start to increase late Wednesday evening, more so for eastern most terminals.
Southerly flow continues, but weakens tonight. IFR and LIFR stratus is expected to develop overnight at KGON, and amendments may be needed for KBDR and KISP if sub VFR conditions get further west than currently anticipated. Otherwise all other TAFs sites will be VFR.
A light SW flow Wednesday morning increases and becomes more southerly at about 10-12kt during the afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night: sub VFR conditions develop mainly east of the NYC terminals.
Thursday: VFR in the morning, then becoming MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday and Sunday: Generally VFR. A chance of showers with brief MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Fog is possible tonight on the central/ern Sound, Peconic/Gardiners Bays, and the ocean waters E of Moriches Inlet. Ocean seas likely get close to 5 ft at times W of Fire Island Inlet on increasing S flow 15-20 kt toward the late day/early evening Wednesday in S-SW flow. Otherwise, sub SCA cond expected through the weekend.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 750 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the coast will be in control through Wednesday night. A cold front will approach on Thursday and weaken as it moves into the area Thursday night into early Friday. The front will eventually dissipate south of Long Island on Friday as weak high pressure returns from the north.
Another low pressure system will approach from the west for Saturday. Its associated cold front will move across Saturday night. Weak high pressure will return for Sunday before more frontal systems potentially impact the area early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Just some minor adjustments made to hourly temperatures, dewpoints, fog and cloud coverage for tonight. Forecast overall remains on track.
Mostly clear skies over most of the area, with some sct Cu over the higher elevations NW of NYC and along the sea breeze in NJ.
Skies should remain mostly clear through tonight except perhaps over parts of coastal CT and the forks of Long Island which could see some fog development late tonight. Confidence in this not very high as winds veer SW tonight.
Low temps will range widely from east to west, from the lower 50s across the forks of Long Island and SE CT, to the mid/upper 50s most elsewhere, and lower/mid 60s for NYC and NE NJ.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The high will remain in place daytime Wed, with more widespread warmth as low level flow will be SW rather than S. Most areas north/west of NYC should see high temps in the mid/upper 80s, with 80-85 for most of NYC and interior CT, and 70s across Long Island and coastal CT. Most of the south shore of Long Island however may not make it any higher than the upper 60s.
A pre-frontal trough and associated mid level shortwave trough approach late Wed night and may bring a few showers/tstms mainly to areas from the NYC metro area north/west. Lows Wed night will once again vary from east to west, with 55-60 for Long Island and S CT, lower 60s most elsewhere, and mid 60s for NE NJ.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points:
* Very warm day Thursday upper 70s to near 90 for high temperatures. Lower 90s heat indices for parts of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT.
* Marginal strong to severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday into Thursday night.
* Potential for some rounds of showers for the holiday weekend.
Upper levels feature a SW to NE jet streak of which its right rear quad will be more in the central to northern New England Thursday into Thursday night. Relatively weak jet level winds are forecast over the area Friday into the weekend but another jet streak moving north of the area Sunday night. Then SW flow in jet levels early next week with a longer wavelength trough approaching the Eastern Seaboard towards the middle of next week.
At the surface, a parent low fills in while moving farther northeast within Ontario Thursday. Its associated cold front will weaken as it approaches the local region. Before the arrival of the cold front, there will likely be a pre-frontal trough making for early day showers and thunderstorms north and west of NYC.
Regarding the thunderstorms, some of them have the possibility of being strong to severe with hail and strong wind gusts for the entire forecast area. However, higher severe chances near NYC and locations to the north and west, including Western Long Island, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. From NCAR Ensemble Forecasts 00Z 5/20/24 initialization, highest CAPE Thursday across most interior places, towards Passaic NJ, Orange NY, Putnam NY, Rockland NY, Northern Westchester NY, Northern Fairfield CT (around 1500 J/kg). Convective inhibition is shown to the east. 0-6 km AGL bulk shear as shown by different forecast models getting to range of 30-40 kt, allowing for some organization of convection with strong downburst potential.
Farther west locations are forecast to have more CAPE, driving the downburst potential with thunderstorms as well as greater vertical development for hail growth.
Lots of uncertainty on timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms. Not much rainfall total, approximately 0.25 inch or less. CAPE is highest in the 2 to 8PM timeframe so would think this would be the window for much of the strong to severe thunderstorm potential. General timeframe between 2PM and 8PM from NW to SE for the thunderstorms to develop, grow and move southeast. The convective mode will probably be a broken squall line or a combination of convective clusters as well as a broken squall line.
Parent low filling in Thursday within Ontario, decreasing pressure over time, resulting weakening of cold front moving through the area. Some models are indicating the front slows down and stalls out as well as dissipate within the region. The front is therefore becoming less well defined with time.
May very well be a situation where Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut do not receive any rainfall Thursday into Thursday night as the more maritime environment stabilizes the low levels enough for approaching showers and thunderstorms to breakup and weaken as they approach.
Weak high pressure follows for Friday into Friday night. Some shower chances remain early for coastal sections, especially Long Island but drying conditions are expected going into the afternoon. Dry conditions continue until late Friday night. This is when another low pressure system will be approaching from the west. More rain showers are in the forecast and these are forecast as well for Saturday with possibly a few thunderstorms with daytime heating. Chances for showers continue Saturday night with an associated cold front moving across.
Weak high pressure returns for Sunday into Sunday night with mainly dry conditions much of the time. Showers return to the forecast late Sunday night into early next week with another frontal system approaching.
Temperatures gradually on a cooling trend over the course of the long term, staying above normal Thursday through Sunday but near to below normal for early next week.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains in control and just offshore through Wednesday evening.
Mainly VFR through Wednesday. Chances for sub VFR conditions start to increase late Wednesday evening, more so for eastern most terminals.
Southerly flow continues, but weakens tonight. IFR and LIFR stratus is expected to develop overnight at KGON, and amendments may be needed for KBDR and KISP if sub VFR conditions get further west than currently anticipated. Otherwise all other TAFs sites will be VFR.
A light SW flow Wednesday morning increases and becomes more southerly at about 10-12kt during the afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night: sub VFR conditions develop mainly east of the NYC terminals.
Thursday: VFR in the morning, then becoming MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday and Sunday: Generally VFR. A chance of showers with brief MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Fog is possible tonight on the central/ern Sound, Peconic/Gardiners Bays, and the ocean waters E of Moriches Inlet. Ocean seas likely get close to 5 ft at times W of Fire Island Inlet on increasing S flow 15-20 kt toward the late day/early evening Wednesday in S-SW flow. Otherwise, sub SCA cond expected through the weekend.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 30 mi | 43 min | SSE 1.9G | 65°F | 29.90 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 36 mi | 43 min | SSE 2.9G | 65°F | 60°F | 29.96 | ||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 37 mi | 31 min | SSW 12G | 57°F | 55°F | 29.98 | 55°F | |
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 41 mi | 43 min | SSE 8.9G | 68°F | 29.95 | |||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 47 mi | 31 min | SSW 14G | 63°F | 62°F | 29.95 | 60°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY | 6 sm | 35 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 29.96 | |
| KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY | 7 sm | 35 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 29.98 | |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 20 sm | 38 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 55°F | 94% | 29.99 | |
| KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 22 sm | 38 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 57°F | 77% | 29.96 |
Patchogue
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM EDT 0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT 0.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM EDT 0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT 0.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Patchogue, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Mastic Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:36 AM EDT 0.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:58 PM EDT 0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:36 AM EDT 0.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:58 PM EDT 0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mastic Beach, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Upton, NY,
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