Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE
May 21, 2024 5:49 PM CDT (22:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 9:02 PM Moonrise 6:27 PM Moonset 4:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 212031 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 331 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Localized frost potential in portions of the Panhandle tonight.
- A brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms, with potential for severe thunderstorms, returns again Thursday afternoon into the evening. SPC has issues a Marginal Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon.
- The pattern remains active through the weekend, bringing slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures and chances of precipitation throughout the weekend. At this time, the severe weather potential remains uncertain.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Upper air analysis and satellite imagery reveal an upper level low over southern Saskatchewan, with a trough over western Utah. A shortwave is noted ahead of the main trough over western Kansas. At the surface, a strong low pressure system is located over eastern Nebraska, which is the focus for severe thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska into central Iowa this afternoon. Across western Nebraska, mostly overcast skies are observed on satellite, on the back side of the strong low pressure system.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
As the upper level trough and associated surface system move further east this evening, a low amplitude ridge begins to settle over the region, bringing a small reprieve from showers and thunderstorms.
Cannot rule out the potential for some very light precipitation this evening, but generally expect any precipitation to be a few hundredths at most. Lingering cloud cover overnight should help limit temperatures cooling off too dramatically, but will need to keep a close eye on portions of the Panhandle for potential patchy frost. The area of greatest concern for patchy frost will be northern Garden and southern Sheridan counties. At this time, given the cloud cover and potential light showers, confidence remains low for frost, but still worthy of a mention.
For Wednesday, clouds are expected to clear out, bringing mostly clear skies. The low amplitude ridge is expected to become more zonal in nature ahead of the approaching trough. Temperatures remain slightly cooler than average, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. Looking into Wednesday night, cannot completely rule out the potential for some light showers and rumble of thunder across southwest Nebraska, however, remain fairly confident in a dry night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
By Thursday, the upper level trough will have progressed eastward, and sets up another set up for potential severe weather. Model guidance suggests a strong low level jet and respectable moisture advection ahead of the advancing system. The surge of moisture should provide dewpoints in the 50s across the region, and forecast soundings are supportive of severe weather. Additionally, initially clear skies will help temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a Marginal Risk of severe weather across most of the region on Thursday, however this is likely going to be refined as confidence improves in the synoptic set up. The biggest forecast question is just how far north the moisture advects. This seems to be the biggest factor in convective mode, as well as whether or not the cap will break.
Afternoon guidance suggests that if the moisture can reach the region, convection may be more discrete in nature, and profiles were suggestive of large hail. However, other guidance that had more limited moisture tended to keep potential cells more elevated. As this critical detail is resolved in follow on forecasts, will have a better idea on timing and mode of potential severe weather Thursday afternoon.
The upper level pattern remains fairly active through the weekend, with another trough and upper level low tracking through the region.
This looks to bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska. Currently, appears that Sunday and Monday will be the better precipitation chances, but ensemble guidance keeps a 30 to 40 percent chance throughout the weekend. At this time, the potential for severe weather is uncertain. Confidence will increase in follow on forecasts as the track and timing of the upper level low is refined.
Although the severe potential remains uncertain, temperatures look to be fairly consistent, with slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures expected this weekend. Looking at some of the temperature guidance this weekend, this may only be by a few degrees, as typical highs are around the mid 70s, and forecast temperature spreads are in the low to mid 70s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
MVFR/local IFR ceilings across wrn/ncntl Nebraska are expected to gradually improve to VFR from west to east this afternoon and this evening. The risk of thunderstorms is low but light rain is likely east of highway 83 this afternoon.
VFR should be widespread across the area from late this evening through Wednesday morning.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 331 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Localized frost potential in portions of the Panhandle tonight.
- A brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms, with potential for severe thunderstorms, returns again Thursday afternoon into the evening. SPC has issues a Marginal Risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon.
- The pattern remains active through the weekend, bringing slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures and chances of precipitation throughout the weekend. At this time, the severe weather potential remains uncertain.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Upper air analysis and satellite imagery reveal an upper level low over southern Saskatchewan, with a trough over western Utah. A shortwave is noted ahead of the main trough over western Kansas. At the surface, a strong low pressure system is located over eastern Nebraska, which is the focus for severe thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska into central Iowa this afternoon. Across western Nebraska, mostly overcast skies are observed on satellite, on the back side of the strong low pressure system.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
As the upper level trough and associated surface system move further east this evening, a low amplitude ridge begins to settle over the region, bringing a small reprieve from showers and thunderstorms.
Cannot rule out the potential for some very light precipitation this evening, but generally expect any precipitation to be a few hundredths at most. Lingering cloud cover overnight should help limit temperatures cooling off too dramatically, but will need to keep a close eye on portions of the Panhandle for potential patchy frost. The area of greatest concern for patchy frost will be northern Garden and southern Sheridan counties. At this time, given the cloud cover and potential light showers, confidence remains low for frost, but still worthy of a mention.
For Wednesday, clouds are expected to clear out, bringing mostly clear skies. The low amplitude ridge is expected to become more zonal in nature ahead of the approaching trough. Temperatures remain slightly cooler than average, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. Looking into Wednesday night, cannot completely rule out the potential for some light showers and rumble of thunder across southwest Nebraska, however, remain fairly confident in a dry night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
By Thursday, the upper level trough will have progressed eastward, and sets up another set up for potential severe weather. Model guidance suggests a strong low level jet and respectable moisture advection ahead of the advancing system. The surge of moisture should provide dewpoints in the 50s across the region, and forecast soundings are supportive of severe weather. Additionally, initially clear skies will help temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a Marginal Risk of severe weather across most of the region on Thursday, however this is likely going to be refined as confidence improves in the synoptic set up. The biggest forecast question is just how far north the moisture advects. This seems to be the biggest factor in convective mode, as well as whether or not the cap will break.
Afternoon guidance suggests that if the moisture can reach the region, convection may be more discrete in nature, and profiles were suggestive of large hail. However, other guidance that had more limited moisture tended to keep potential cells more elevated. As this critical detail is resolved in follow on forecasts, will have a better idea on timing and mode of potential severe weather Thursday afternoon.
The upper level pattern remains fairly active through the weekend, with another trough and upper level low tracking through the region.
This looks to bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska. Currently, appears that Sunday and Monday will be the better precipitation chances, but ensemble guidance keeps a 30 to 40 percent chance throughout the weekend. At this time, the potential for severe weather is uncertain. Confidence will increase in follow on forecasts as the track and timing of the upper level low is refined.
Although the severe potential remains uncertain, temperatures look to be fairly consistent, with slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures expected this weekend. Looking at some of the temperature guidance this weekend, this may only be by a few degrees, as typical highs are around the mid 70s, and forecast temperature spreads are in the low to mid 70s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024
MVFR/local IFR ceilings across wrn/ncntl Nebraska are expected to gradually improve to VFR from west to east this afternoon and this evening. The risk of thunderstorms is low but light rain is likely east of highway 83 this afternoon.
VFR should be widespread across the area from late this evening through Wednesday morning.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
North Platte, NE,
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