Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 6:25 PM   Moonset 3:59 AM

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FXUS63 KGID 211133 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 633 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms early this morning may produce large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. There is a low tornado threat.

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Flood Watch are in effect for much of the area.

- Additional storm development is expected later this morning into early this afternoon. These storms may become strong to severe.

- There is a marginal threat of severe weather on Thursday across the whole forecast area.

- High temperatures will range from the low 60s to mid 80s. Low temperatures will range from the low 40s to near 60 degrees.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with the leading edge of the trough over the Plains. Upper lift is enhanced over Nebraska and Kansas due to the upper trough. A cold front associated with the upper trough is pushing southward across Nebraska into northern Kansas. Wind shear, CAPE values, and mid- level lapse rates are fairly high across the area. Thunderstorms are currently moving across portions of south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. These storms are expected to continue across most of the forecast area through the overnight period. The main threats with these storms are damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding. There is a low tornado threat. These storms should be on the eastern edge of the forecast area by sunrise. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of south central and central Nebraska and Phillips and Smith Counties in north central Kansas until 7 AM this morning. A Flood Watch is in effect for central and much of south central Nebraska until 1 PM this afternoon. Additional storm development is possible across the forecast area around mid morning to early afternoon. These storms may become strong to severe depending on the environment left behind from the storms that are currently affecting the area. High temperatures today are expected to range from the low 60s to upper 70s. Winds behind the cold front today are expected to be gusty out of the northwest. Winds will weaken this evening into tonight and become more westerly. There is a lingering chance (up to 25%) of showers and thunderstorms tonight across mainly north central Kansas. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s to mid 50s.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough will have lifted to the northeast of the area on Wednesday with another upper trough centered over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in mostly dry conditions across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas for most of the day on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 70s with mostly sunny to sunny skies and fairly light winds. Winds will be out of the south Wednesday evening and night with a 15% to 35% chance of showers and thunderstorms for the western half of the area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will move further east on Thursday. An upper level disturbance/shortwave will move over the area on Thursday. The GFS is showing fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates for Thursday afternoon and evening so some storms may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the whole forecast area in a marginal risk of severe weather for Thursday. High temperatures for Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies. The previously mentioned upper trough will begin to move over the central and northern Plains Thursday night with a cold front moving into south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the mid 40s to near 60 degrees. Rain and storm chances will increase to near 75% for portions of the area Thursday night.

Friday through Monday night...

Northerly winds will continue across the area on Friday with high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the low 40s to low 50s. Winds will become southeasterly on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A shortwave trough is expected to move over the central Plains Saturday night with rain and storm chances (up to around 35%)
increasing across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. An upper trough will begin moving over the central and northern Plains on Sunday. This will allow for continued rain and storm chances (up to around 40%) for Sunday and Sunday night. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. An upper low/trough will be centered over the central Plains on Monday with a cold front moving into the area. Rain and storm chances (up to 30%) will continue Monday and Monday night. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s with low temperatures Monday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Low ceilings are expected to impact the terminals in a couple of hours. Ceilings are expected to improve late in the morning into early afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible this morning beginning around 14z and continuing until around 20z. Winds will generally be out of the north to northwest with some gusts.
Winds will weaken this evening and become more southwesterly.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>084.
KS...None.

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