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FXUS61 KPBZ 172327 AAB AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
The risk for showers will continue through at least Saturday morning. Near to above normal temperatures through the weekend.
Dry weather returns by Sunday afternoon, and continues into early next week with a warmup.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers will continue into the evening as a trough passes.
- Localized heavy rainfall totals and water issues are possible, and rotating cells will need to be monitored.
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PoPs have been updated for the evening and overnight hours to account for the area of showers that will exit to the east early this evening and more showers that are possible overnight with a passing shortwave trough. Left out the mention of thunder as the atmosphere will stabilize this evening and we have not seen much lightning with any of the previous activity. Overnight lows were adjusted as well.

Previous discussion...

Showers, and a thunderstorm or two, will remain possible this evening as a shortwave trough axis crosses. Any further severe potential looks limited to these low-topped, short-term rotations that could drop a very brief tornado. The storms are too short to produce large hail, and there is not much potential for straight-line wind from these storms either. We also need to continue to monitor the heavy rain/isolated flash flooding potential, although the more scattered nature of the storms will help to mitigate this to some degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower chances continue along with above normal temperatures.
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The upper trough will continue to slowly sag to the east Saturday afternoon and evening. Forcing overall becomes more diffuse, and thus more scattered activity is foreseen. Activity will be a bit more concentrated along the ridges though, as some left entrance region jet dynamics skim the region. Severe chances remain negligible, and the heavy rainfall threat overall will be lower.

The majority of the CWA should dry out Saturday night as the trough departs and ridging expands over the Ohio Valley. Still, a few showers may linger in the ridges to the southeast of Pittsburgh into Sunday morning, thanks to lingering moisture and easterly flow.

Sunday afternoon and night will feature a relative lack of clouds as the upper ridge settles in and surface high pressure takes control.
Temperatures will nudge a bit higher in the sun, with readings in the mid 70s to around 80 fairly widespread, around 5 degrees above average.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Ridging should result in dry and warmer weather into early next week.
- Rain chances return for Wednesday and Thursday, with some potential for strong thunderstorms..
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A dry forecast continues for Monday and into Tuesday as ensembles largely agree on 500mb ridging and surface high pressure. The rising heights will lead to increasing warmth; temperatures may climb well into the 80s by Tuesday, levels last seen early in May.

The ensembles start to diverge a bit on the handling of the next shortwave trough, which crosses the northern/central Plains and into the Great Lakes during the Wednesday to Friday period. Cluster analysis shows some strength and timing differences with this wave, with GEFS generally more in favor of a slower, weaker wave than many of the ENS members. These differences point to different scenarios regarding rainfall amounts and severe weather chances. Still, given the warmth and potential instability ahead of the system, along with increased shear, we will certainly need to watch for the chance of impactful thunderstorms. Indeed, both CIPS and CSU machine-learning guidance point to severe potential on Wednesday and Thursday. In any case, PoPs in the 50-70 percent range as suggested by the NBM are justified. Temperatures will remain above normal, but will likely be muted by Thursday given clouds/rain and a possible cold frontal passage.

By Friday, scattered showers may remain in a continued troughing pattern and moisture in low-level northwest flow. Temperatures may be closer to seasonable levels by this point.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
General VFR to begin the forecast with the exception of DUJ.
DUJ should stay in IFR/LIFR through the overnight period with possible MVFR showers and fog through sunrise. Elsewhere overnight cigs will lower to MVFR with the risk for scattered showers. Will leave the mention of showers out of ports south of FKL/DUJ as the probability of hitting a port is low. Have included the mention of late night fog at all locations except PIT.

LIFR/IFR conditions north and MVFR conditions south will continue through Saturday morning. Overall improvement is expected during the afternoon.

Outlook
VFR and dry weather become high probabilities Sunday into Monday under the influence of high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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