Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:46 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1035 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters tonight. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 220009 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 809 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Surge of summerlike warmth and humidity through midweek *Strong to severe t-storms possible Wednesday afternoon *Seasonably warm & unsettled Thursday through Memorial Day

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Low level convergence combined with the approach of a mid level vort max over Northern W Virginia is supporting a few isolated showers early this evening along the spine of the Alleghenies along the Somerset/Bedford County border. Expect this activity to diminish as the sun sets and boundary layer cools.

High pressure centered just off of the Mid Atlantic coast should then support fair and warm conditions for Central PA the rest of the night. Any lingering cumulus over the Allegheny Plateau should collapse around sunset, with mainly clear skies for the balance of the night. The gradual advection of higher dewpoints through daybreak Wednesday, along with clear skies, may result in patchy valley fog late tonight. Highest fog potential based on SREF and NAMNest is across the south-central part of the forecast area around Bedford/Fulton counties and in the deep river/stream valleys from Elk to Northern Clinton counties. See no reason to deviate significantly from NBM min temps, which range from the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Model guidance indicates a decent mid level shortwave will track across the Lower Grt Lks Wed PM. Modest height falls and surging pwats ahead of this feature will result in developing afternoon convection across the region. Latest SPC outlook places the northwest half of the CWA in a slight risk of severe weather associated with decent mid level flow/deep layer shear near the path of the shortwave. A marginal risk extends into the southeast counties, where less impressive kinematic fields are noted in the model guidance.

Latest HRRR shows t-storm clusters developing ahead of an eastward advancing cold front/near a leading pre frontal trough and moving west to east across the area from around midday through the late evening. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are the primary threat. However, cape in the 1000-1500J/kg and steep lapse rates could also support isolated large hail. The severe weather threat will diminish by late Wed evening, as the shortwave passes north of the area and instability wanes.

Model 850mb temps near 16C support high temps Wednesday in the 80s. An increasing southwest flow ahead of an upstream cold front will advect increasingly humid air into the area, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

A break in the shower/storm activity is expected late Wednesday night, as the shortwave and best large scale forcing passes north of the state. However, will maintain low POPs into Thursday morning associated with the arrival of a weakening cold front. By daybreak Thursday, some patchy fog is possible, especially if any breaks in the clouds help promote more efficient radiational cooling.

More showers and t-storms are likely Thursday, primarily during the afternoon, as the cold front stalls out near the Mason Dixon Line and a shortwave rolls eastward from the Ohio Valley.
The focus for convection Thursday will be over the southern part of the state. However, model RH profiles support a good deal of high level cloudiness extending into Northern PA, which should hold temps down. Expected high temps range from the mid 70s to low 80s, but remain above climo for this time of year.
Low temps Thursday night/AM Friday in the 55-65F range will not be as warm/humid as Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Looking at above normal temperatures into the holiday weekend.

The proximity of a frontal boundary to the south and west of PA into at least early next week, will keep some chance of a shower and perhaps a storm across the region from time to time through Monday. Highest chance will be across the far south and far west.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A few CU forming as of 1 PM across the ridge tops. While dewpoints not real high and the airmass aloft rather warm, intense afternoon heating could form a shower or storm across the higher terrain in spots like BFD and perhaps JST.

Otherwise just looking at mainly a few clouds into late morning on Wednesday. Have a TEMPO for fog in at MDT and LNS, but less chance than during the past few mornings. Main thing going for a bit of fog in the far southeast will be rather light wind fields.

Timing of showers and storms with the cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday will be after 18Z. Did have a VCSH in at BFD after 17Z.

Conditions may dry out for Thursday, but the nearby frontal system may keep some showers nearby into the holiday weekend.

Outlook...

Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri-Sun...Mainly VFR, but chance of showers.

CLIMATE
Daily record maximum temperatures for 5/22:

Harrisburg 96/1941 Williamsport 95/1941 Altoona 88/2013 Bradford 84/2013 State College 89/1975

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:08 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Tue -- 03:06 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:16 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:55 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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