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FXUS61 KILN 180145 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 945 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
After showers that remain possible through tonight and isolated activity indicated briefly Saturday afternoon, a dry forecast is in store through Tuesday night. With this dry period, temperatures will increase relatively quickly and end up 10 degrees or slightly more from climatological normals on Tuesday and overnight.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Showers from northeast KY through south central Ohio will continue to decrease in coverage tonight while convection north of Interstate 70 slowly becomes more isolated. Guidance continues to spotlight fog potential late as sky coverage decreases and winds become calm.
Lows will remain near 60 degrees.



SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Some few indications of widely scattered/isolated showers are apparent for Saturday. If this is the case, earlier development should be in southern forecast area, Afternoon heating will prompt what showers that may occur later in the day, at any location in the CWA, ending quickly with the setting sun.

Highs will warm fairly uniformly to around 80, and lows will be again within a degree or so on either side of 60.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Dry and warm conditions will start out the long term Sunday into Monday with high temperatures in the 80s. A little better instability develops on Tuesday and therefore there will be the potential for some pop up afternoon thunderstorms. These will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. A brief lull in the precipitation is expected before a cold front approaches and moves through Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some uncertainty with timing and strength of this system, however cannot rule out the potential for some severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cooler air will move into the region after the passage of the front on Thursday. There is quite a bit of model variability on Friday with either a cool dry solution or with moisture being drawn up into the area from the south. Due to this limited any precipitation chances to the chance category for Friday.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Can't rule out a few showers around the Cincinnati terminals early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will start the TAF period. Much of the guidance for late tonight is expressing a fog risk. This seems pretty aggressive based on forecast sky cover, so have decided to nudge visibilities a bit higher than guidance. Certainly if we realize the full potential of the fog forecast tonight, there may be more sites dropping to less than a mile than currently maintained in the 00Z TAFs (and also a bit later of a burn off time).

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Saturday. A few isolated showers may develop in the afternoon, but coverage should be very low. Light winds will persist through the day.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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