Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH
May 21, 2024 8:42 AM EDT (12:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 6:08 PM Moonset 3:50 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 211049 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 649 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure provides unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather today. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 555 AM Tuesday...
No changes needed to the forecast as it remains on track.
Scattered clouds are drifting across the area preventing fog from being too dense along the river valleys. GOES-16 Microphysics shows that it is present though, especially in the valleys across SE Pocahontas County and the coalfields.
As of 300 AM Tuesday...
Another morning of ridge/valley split temperatures and some patchy river valley fog as strong high pressure overhead has most locations decoupled. Surface obs have been showing temperatures running cooler every hour than blended guidance has forecasted. That said, went about 3-5 degrees cooler on low temperatures this morning than blended guidance.
Strong ridge aloft at 500MB and bubble of surface high pressure to our east allowing for another day of unseasonably warmer temperatures across the area. Under southwesterly flow, upper 80s will be common across the lowlands, while the mountains will be in the 70s to mid 80s. The typical heat sink/sheltered valley locations across the lowlands could see 90 degrees today.
While most locations will stay dry today, short-range convective allowing models show a shortwave disturbance that will move through the ridge pattern this afternoon. That said, chances remain for thundershowers across the northern mountains of WV and our SW VA counties much like yesterday. Went with a blend of short blend guidance as the RAP13 was too aggressive this run, even though it nailed yesterday's convection.
Remaining dry into tonight even as high pressure shifts eastward, yielding to an approaching system from the west.
Temperatures won't be as cool with southerly winds remaining light overnight.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 205 AM Tuesday...
A southerly wind in advance of an approaching system will increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations in the upper 80s. Meso NAM soundings showing 1600 to 1900 effective layer CAPE for Wednesday afternoon in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia. This combined with some mid level dry air could produce damaging wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms and possibly some large hail.
A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday, providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 205 AM Tuesday...
A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An upper level short wave will then interact with the front and cause a surface wave to move along the front Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models continue to struggle with the strength of the short wave, and hence how far north the moisture gets and how strong the dynamics are with this system.
Models continue to struggle for the rest of the forecast with the timing and strength of additional short waves and possible fronts. This leads to a lower confidence in the forecast, although there should be several rounds of precipitation.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 640 AM Tuesday...
Any lingering fog should dissipate by ~13Z, then giving way to VFR for the rest of the day.
A shortwave will move over the area by ~18Z today allowing for scattered CU fields across the area. That said, chances for thundershowers will also remain this afternoon, mostly across the mountains of SW VA, northern WV and maybe the Tri-State Area.
Terminal sites look to dodge the activity as it will be very isolated, though a few short-range models suggest HTS and BKW may see some rainfall today.
Winds are currently calm across the lowlands; light and variable across higher elevations. Winds will pick up out of the SW by ~15Z and will remain light through the period before shifting out of the south after ~00Z this evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms today may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 649 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure provides unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather today. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 555 AM Tuesday...
No changes needed to the forecast as it remains on track.
Scattered clouds are drifting across the area preventing fog from being too dense along the river valleys. GOES-16 Microphysics shows that it is present though, especially in the valleys across SE Pocahontas County and the coalfields.
As of 300 AM Tuesday...
Another morning of ridge/valley split temperatures and some patchy river valley fog as strong high pressure overhead has most locations decoupled. Surface obs have been showing temperatures running cooler every hour than blended guidance has forecasted. That said, went about 3-5 degrees cooler on low temperatures this morning than blended guidance.
Strong ridge aloft at 500MB and bubble of surface high pressure to our east allowing for another day of unseasonably warmer temperatures across the area. Under southwesterly flow, upper 80s will be common across the lowlands, while the mountains will be in the 70s to mid 80s. The typical heat sink/sheltered valley locations across the lowlands could see 90 degrees today.
While most locations will stay dry today, short-range convective allowing models show a shortwave disturbance that will move through the ridge pattern this afternoon. That said, chances remain for thundershowers across the northern mountains of WV and our SW VA counties much like yesterday. Went with a blend of short blend guidance as the RAP13 was too aggressive this run, even though it nailed yesterday's convection.
Remaining dry into tonight even as high pressure shifts eastward, yielding to an approaching system from the west.
Temperatures won't be as cool with southerly winds remaining light overnight.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 205 AM Tuesday...
A southerly wind in advance of an approaching system will increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations in the upper 80s. Meso NAM soundings showing 1600 to 1900 effective layer CAPE for Wednesday afternoon in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia. This combined with some mid level dry air could produce damaging wind gusts in stronger thunderstorms and possibly some large hail.
A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday, providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 205 AM Tuesday...
A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An upper level short wave will then interact with the front and cause a surface wave to move along the front Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models continue to struggle with the strength of the short wave, and hence how far north the moisture gets and how strong the dynamics are with this system.
Models continue to struggle for the rest of the forecast with the timing and strength of additional short waves and possible fronts. This leads to a lower confidence in the forecast, although there should be several rounds of precipitation.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 640 AM Tuesday...
Any lingering fog should dissipate by ~13Z, then giving way to VFR for the rest of the day.
A shortwave will move over the area by ~18Z today allowing for scattered CU fields across the area. That said, chances for thundershowers will also remain this afternoon, mostly across the mountains of SW VA, northern WV and maybe the Tri-State Area.
Terminal sites look to dodge the activity as it will be very isolated, though a few short-range models suggest HTS and BKW may see some rainfall today.
Winds are currently calm across the lowlands; light and variable across higher elevations. Winds will pick up out of the SW by ~15Z and will remain light through the period before shifting out of the south after ~00Z this evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms today may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/21/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUNI OHIO UNIVERSITY,OH | 7 sm | 27 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 61°F | 78% | 29.99 |
Charleston, WV,
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