Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 5:42 PM   Moonset 3:26 AM

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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 627 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. A chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 627 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters today. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KPHI 210858 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 458 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure shifts slightly to the south today then out to sea Wednesday. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday night, before slowly moving across the area on Thursday, then stalls to our south through the weekend. Several waves of low pressure and may develop and move along this boundary over the weekend into early next week, bringing unsettled weather to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Areas of fog and low stratus are beginning to overspread southern NJ, coastal DE, and southeast PA early this morning. Expecting coverage to gradually increase over the next several hours until daybreak arrives and begins to mix out any fog or low stratus.

Fog and/or low stratus this morning will dissipate by mid-morning and give way to clear skies in the afternoon with some fair-weather cumulus. Another dry and quiet weather day is expected. High temps should be a bit warmer than those of today, rising into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temps will be noticeably cooler along/near the shore thanks to light surface winds allowing an afternoon sea breeze circulation to develop.

Another tranquil night with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Light SSWrly flow should inhibit much organized fog outside the immediate coast, but some patchy fog will be possible. Lows in the mid 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will move farther away from the area and out to sea on Wednesday, losing its effect on the weather across the area. Dry conditions are expected early in the day on Wednesday, but showers will be possible by the end of the day as a mid/upper level disturbance moves in to the area. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely on Wednesday night as a pre-frontal trough may develop across the area while the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance slowly moves across the area. Showers and thunderstorms become even more likely on Thursday and into Thursday evening as the cold front moves across the area. There is some instability forecast across the area, with CAPE values potentially reaching 1000-2000 J/kg, with some shear across the area with 30-40 knots. So there will be the potential for some strong to severe storms to develop across the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The cold front is expected to stall to the south Friday and into the weekend, before possibly lifting north of the area on Monday.
leading to possible unsettled weather. A couple of waves of low pressure are expected to move across the area as the front stalls near the area Friday and Saturday. This will lead to a period of possible unsettled weather with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. As these disturbances move to the east Sunday, it is possible that the shower activity will diminish on Sunday. However, another area of low pressure could begin to move into the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing addition unsettled conditions to the area.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Early this morning (through 12Z)...VFR to start for most, but marine fog is forecast to advect inland later this morning, leading to areas of mist and fog. A few sites have already seen moments of IFR or lower at times during the overnight period.
IFR CIGs /VSBYs become more prevalent at KACY/KMIV after 08-10Z.
MVFR CIGs /VSBY will become more prevailing across the I-95 terminals with moments of IFR possible. KABE/KRDG will likely remain in VFR/MVFR. Moderate confidence overall, but lower with respect to timing of CIGs /VSBY reductions.

Tuesday...Any IFR/MVFR CIGs should rise to VFR by 14-16Z at all terminals. Mostly clear skies during the afternoon. South- southwest winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Generally VFR except lower conditions possible around daybreak.

Wednesday night-Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR conditions expected with a slight chance of showers during the day.

Friday night-Saturday...Chance of showers with periods of lower conditions possible.

MARINE
Areas of fog over the marine zones this morning, including the Atlantic Coastal waters and Delaware Bay. Otherwise, marine conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria. Light and variable winds this morning will become more S to SSW this afternoon into the overnight period around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. However, winds will gust around 20 knots at times and seas could rise to 4 feet at times.

Rip Currents...

Winds today will increase to 5-15 mph from the south to southeast, while waves offshore waves will be 3-4 feet with an 8 second swell. Also, there is a full moon on Thursday. This will all contribute to a Moderate risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the beaches both Delaware and New Jersey.

Similar conditions will continue into Wednesday, with slightly stronger winds. As a result, there will continue to be a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents at NJ and DE beaches on Wednesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-431- 454-455.

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Avalon
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Tue -- 03:04 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:00 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Avalon, Dogwood Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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