Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 5:37 PM   Moonset 3:24 AM

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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1031 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - SE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog late this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ600 1031 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure over the region prevails through midweek, bringing dry weather and benign marine conditions to the local waters. Rain chances look to return for the latter half of the week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 211350 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 950 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 945 AM EDT Tuesday...

The last of the low clouds will dissipate along the coast within the next hour or so leaving a mostly sunny sky today for all areas. High temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast with light onshore flow, to the lower 80s well inland.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to severe.

High pressure nudges offshore tonight. Some patchy fog/stratus is possible, especially toward the coast, with less coverage than early this morning. Otherwise, mostly clear tonight with lows in the mid 50s to around 60F. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Wednesday into Thursday. More summerlike conditions arrive as 850mb temperatures rise to 16-17C, which will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90F away from the coast both days. A lighter wind, still SSE will keep highs in the mid 70s to around 80F along the coast Wednesday, with highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday along the coast as the wind becomes more southwesterly. Meanwhile, dewpoints are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then mid to upper 60s by Thursday. Mild, mostly clear, and modestly humid Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Dry Wednesday through midday Thursday. A shortwave trough and cold front will approach from the NW by Thursday afternoon. This will bring a trigger for showers/tstms into a moderately unstable airmass with strong surface heating. This combined with 500mb flow of 30-40kt could result in a few stronger to severe tstms.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

The cold front stalls in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday night into the weekend and early next week as it become aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft. There is a potential for a series of shortwave troughs to track through the mid/upper level flow bringing daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. Friday still should be rather hot with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with high temperatures trending down to the lower 80s Saturday and lower to mid 80s Sunday and Monday.
Low temperatures will primarily be in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 710 AM EDT Tuesday...

The last of the low clouds will dissipate along the coast by 15z with VFR conditions after that. Winds will remain light through the 12Z TAF period. High pressure becomes centered immediately offshore tonight with some patchy stratus/fog possible, especially toward the coast.

Dry Wednesday through most of Thursday with prevailing VFR conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW later Thursday aftn bringing a chc of showers/tstms. This front lingers over the area Friday into Saturday with a chc of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms continuing.

MARINE
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches today.

- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered right over the area. Winds were NE, E or SE 5-10kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft. Relatively benign conditions will prevail on the marine side for most of the week, as high pressure will eventually slide out to sea. Winds will become E or SE at 5-10kt this aftn into this evening, then will be SSW 5-15kt later tonight into Thu night. A weak cold front will drop into and across the waters Thu evening into Fri morning, bringing a chance of sctd showers and storms for Thu aftn into early Fri morning.

Expecting a moderate rip current risk for the srn beaches today, with low rip current risk for the nrn beaches. Low rip current risk for all areas on Wed.

HYDROLOGY
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell still in minor flood stage this morning. The river will stay in flood this morning before falling below flood stage by this evening. Rainfall from the weekend may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bogues Bay
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Tue -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
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Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Assateague Beach
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Tue -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:36 PM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
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Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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