Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Southside Chesconessex, VA
May 21, 2024 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 5:38 PM Moonset 3:26 AM |
ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 239 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Through 7 pm - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 239 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure persists across the region through Wednesday, bringing dry weather and benign marine conditions to the local waters. Rain and storm chances will return for the latter half of the week.
high pressure persists across the region through Wednesday, bringing dry weather and benign marine conditions to the local waters. Rain and storm chances will return for the latter half of the week.
FXUS61 KAKQ 211844 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 244 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure shifts offshore this evening. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Quiet tonight with possible patchy fog once again.
High pressure overhead will lead to another night of clear skies and light winds. Dew points are similar to yesterday and as such, see no reason why some patchy fog will not develop again. Fog may be confined further east and SE tonight given that the high has shifted offshore. Will go with patchy fog especially SE and south central VA, NE NC and the Eastern Shore. Lows generally dropping back into the upper 50s/lower 60s once again.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Summerlike and more humid for Wed and Thursday with temperatures close to 90 each day.
- Chances for storms later Thursday into Thursday evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe.
High pressure settles off the coast by Wednesday, leading to south to southwest low level flow. This will allow the surge of warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels across the area.
Despite temps approaching 90, it looks tough for any storms to develop given the ridge axis over the region. The HRRR and HighResFV3 suggest storms may develop over northern VA late Wed afternoon then perhaps brush by the far northern part of the forecast area Wed evening as the showers/storms diminish. Have opted to include a slight chance for this time period but most likely it will stay dry.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop as a cold front approaches from the NW on Thursday. These will most likely form later in the day (say after 3 or 4 pm) and then continue to the coast by later Thu evening. With the ridge breaking down somewhat, stronger mid level flow of 40 kt will move across the area during the afternoon. This stronger mid level flow combined will help to give 30 kt of deep shear. The kinematics combined with favorable thermodynamics (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) may allow for some localized severe storms especially if we can see the multicellular storms develop into a more linear feature. The inverted-V type sounding and some dry air aloft would suggest wind being the main threat from any severe weather. Currently have a marginal risk for severe weather for the majority of the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages: - Remaining somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
- Forecast trending warmer for the weekend into early next week.
Not too many changes to the underlying thinking for Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. The slow moving cold front which will be gradually moving through the area on Thursday will stall out nearby for the weekend. Meanwhile, the ridge breaks down just enough to allow stronger mid level westerly flow to remain in place across the area through the weekend. Within this westerly flow, the models suggest a series of short waves moving through. Timing of these is impossible to accurately predict at this time, however. As such, there will be chances for showers and storms for much of the weekend. We should be able to better define timing of the best chances as we get closer to the weekend. However, for now, the best chances for showers/storms look to be on Friday and again on Sunday.
The NBM has warmed up temperatures for the weekend, with most places now in the mid to upper 80s. With lack of any significant troughiness across the region, this makes sense and have increased the official forecast to match.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
Generally VFR this afternoon, although some MVFR cigs have crept back into ECG. These are likely temporary. Expect another rough of IFR vsbys and cigs to impact ECG, ORF and SBY after midnight tonight due to light SE flow and increase dew points. LAMP IFR probabilities quite high (at or above 50% at ECG tonight). For now, have opted to start with 1 to 2 SM vsbys, but it is certainly possible that these sites could see lower Vsbys. Will keep RIC VFR all night with the high shifted offshore the pattern is not as favorable for fog in central VA. Fog should quickly burn off Wed morning with all sites VFR by 14 or 15z.
Light SE winds turning southerly on Wed.
Outlook...A cold front approaches the area Thu bringing with it a chance for showers/storms along with possible flight restrictions.
We are settling into a summerlike pattern for the weekend, with daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
-Moderate rip current risk continues for southern beaches today before returning to low for all local coastal waters Wednesday.
-Marine fog will be possible again tonight. Rain and storm chances return beginning Thursday.
High pressure remains across the local area this afternoon creating calm marine conditions. Winds are generally variable at less than 8kt, but should become more southeasterly late this evening before turning southwesterly during the early morning hours. Speeds are forecast to remain between 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Bay around 1ft. Another round of low clouds/marine fog may be possible again tonight, particularly along the Atlantic coast.
Visibilities could be reduced to 1-2SM at times.
The area of high pressure begins to slide offshore on Wednesday ahead of an incoming frontal system. High-resolution guidance tries to indicate a brief uptick in southerly wind speeds to sustained 15- 19kt Wednesday afternoon. Rain and storm chances will increase on Thursday with the front's approach, and are forecast to persist each day into early next week as the front stalls out across the region.
Expect the best rain chances to be likely in the afternoon/evening hours. Currently not anticipating any wind issues with the frontal passage itself, though strong erratic gusts will be possible with any stronger thunderstorm during this period. Seas are forecast to remain around 2-3ft.
A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast to return to low for all beaches on Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
The Nottoway River at Sebrell remains in minor flood. However, the levels are falling and is expected to fall below flood stage tonight.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur tonight, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will likely continue again later Wednesday as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 244 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure shifts offshore this evening. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Quiet tonight with possible patchy fog once again.
High pressure overhead will lead to another night of clear skies and light winds. Dew points are similar to yesterday and as such, see no reason why some patchy fog will not develop again. Fog may be confined further east and SE tonight given that the high has shifted offshore. Will go with patchy fog especially SE and south central VA, NE NC and the Eastern Shore. Lows generally dropping back into the upper 50s/lower 60s once again.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Summerlike and more humid for Wed and Thursday with temperatures close to 90 each day.
- Chances for storms later Thursday into Thursday evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe.
High pressure settles off the coast by Wednesday, leading to south to southwest low level flow. This will allow the surge of warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels across the area.
Despite temps approaching 90, it looks tough for any storms to develop given the ridge axis over the region. The HRRR and HighResFV3 suggest storms may develop over northern VA late Wed afternoon then perhaps brush by the far northern part of the forecast area Wed evening as the showers/storms diminish. Have opted to include a slight chance for this time period but most likely it will stay dry.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop as a cold front approaches from the NW on Thursday. These will most likely form later in the day (say after 3 or 4 pm) and then continue to the coast by later Thu evening. With the ridge breaking down somewhat, stronger mid level flow of 40 kt will move across the area during the afternoon. This stronger mid level flow combined will help to give 30 kt of deep shear. The kinematics combined with favorable thermodynamics (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) may allow for some localized severe storms especially if we can see the multicellular storms develop into a more linear feature. The inverted-V type sounding and some dry air aloft would suggest wind being the main threat from any severe weather. Currently have a marginal risk for severe weather for the majority of the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages: - Remaining somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
- Forecast trending warmer for the weekend into early next week.
Not too many changes to the underlying thinking for Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. The slow moving cold front which will be gradually moving through the area on Thursday will stall out nearby for the weekend. Meanwhile, the ridge breaks down just enough to allow stronger mid level westerly flow to remain in place across the area through the weekend. Within this westerly flow, the models suggest a series of short waves moving through. Timing of these is impossible to accurately predict at this time, however. As such, there will be chances for showers and storms for much of the weekend. We should be able to better define timing of the best chances as we get closer to the weekend. However, for now, the best chances for showers/storms look to be on Friday and again on Sunday.
The NBM has warmed up temperatures for the weekend, with most places now in the mid to upper 80s. With lack of any significant troughiness across the region, this makes sense and have increased the official forecast to match.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
Generally VFR this afternoon, although some MVFR cigs have crept back into ECG. These are likely temporary. Expect another rough of IFR vsbys and cigs to impact ECG, ORF and SBY after midnight tonight due to light SE flow and increase dew points. LAMP IFR probabilities quite high (at or above 50% at ECG tonight). For now, have opted to start with 1 to 2 SM vsbys, but it is certainly possible that these sites could see lower Vsbys. Will keep RIC VFR all night with the high shifted offshore the pattern is not as favorable for fog in central VA. Fog should quickly burn off Wed morning with all sites VFR by 14 or 15z.
Light SE winds turning southerly on Wed.
Outlook...A cold front approaches the area Thu bringing with it a chance for showers/storms along with possible flight restrictions.
We are settling into a summerlike pattern for the weekend, with daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
-Moderate rip current risk continues for southern beaches today before returning to low for all local coastal waters Wednesday.
-Marine fog will be possible again tonight. Rain and storm chances return beginning Thursday.
High pressure remains across the local area this afternoon creating calm marine conditions. Winds are generally variable at less than 8kt, but should become more southeasterly late this evening before turning southwesterly during the early morning hours. Speeds are forecast to remain between 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the Bay around 1ft. Another round of low clouds/marine fog may be possible again tonight, particularly along the Atlantic coast.
Visibilities could be reduced to 1-2SM at times.
The area of high pressure begins to slide offshore on Wednesday ahead of an incoming frontal system. High-resolution guidance tries to indicate a brief uptick in southerly wind speeds to sustained 15- 19kt Wednesday afternoon. Rain and storm chances will increase on Thursday with the front's approach, and are forecast to persist each day into early next week as the front stalls out across the region.
Expect the best rain chances to be likely in the afternoon/evening hours. Currently not anticipating any wind issues with the frontal passage itself, though strong erratic gusts will be possible with any stronger thunderstorm during this period. Seas are forecast to remain around 2-3ft.
A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast to return to low for all beaches on Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
The Nottoway River at Sebrell remains in minor flood. However, the levels are falling and is expected to fall below flood stage tonight.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur tonight, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will likely continue again later Wednesday as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 10 mi | 44 min | S 6G | 72°F | 30.00 | |||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 17 mi | 44 min | SSW 6G | 30.04 | ||||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 26 mi | 38 min | SE 12G | 70°F | 71°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44089 | 26 mi | 36 min | 60°F | 2 ft | ||||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 35 mi | 44 min | SE 7.8G | 69°F | 69°F | 1 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 37 mi | 44 min | SSW 7G | 75°F | 30.00 | |||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 39 mi | 44 min | SSE 6G | 69°F | 30.04 | |||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 40 mi | 44 min | ESE 8.9G | 73°F | 29.98 | |||
| 44072 | 43 mi | 38 min | ESE 12G | 67°F | 1 ft | |||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 48 mi | 44 min | SSE 11G | |||||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 49 mi | 44 min | E 9.9G | 71°F | 30.00 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA | 6 sm | 27 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 30.01 | ||||
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 13 sm | 27 min | SSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 63°F | 69% | 30.00 | |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 24 sm | 68 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 30.02 |
Tide / Current for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT 1.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:31 PM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Watts Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT 1.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:47 PM EDT 1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT 1.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:47 PM EDT 1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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