Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS
May 17, 2024 7:29 PM CDT (00:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 2:22 PM Moonset 2:38 AM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 172250 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 550 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A strong warming trend is expected through the weekend, with many locations warming well into the 90s Sunday afternoon.
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of US 283 Sunday afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail.
- A cold front is expected to provide cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tomorrow afternoon. Lee troughing across eastern Colorado will help bring southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow morning. A weak frontal boundary will then slide through a majority of the area tomorrow, then advect northward tomorrow afternoon. Winds behind this frontal boundary will generally be from a northerly direction. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across our northern zones tomorrow night, otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Above normal temperatures are expected through the short term with lows tonight ranging from the low 50s across west central Kansas with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. 850 temperatures ranging from the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow afternoon should support highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s. Short term ensemble models show a 30-70 percent chance of temperatures above 92 degrees south of a line from Great Bend to Elkhart. Lows tomorrow night are expected to range from the low 50s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
An upper level shortwave is expected to move out of the Four Corners region Sunday morning and into the area Sunday afternoon/evening. A strong dryline is expected to develop along the US 283 corridor Sunday afternoon, with strong instability east of the boundary.
Dewpoints well into the 60s and CAPE > 3,000 J/kg are expected in the warm sector east of the dryline. Ensembles suggest convective initiation along the dryline around 4-5 pm, in an environment of instability and shear clearly supportive of supercells. Strong consensus that any severe threat will be focused on the northeast zones of the DDC CWA Even though trough timing with the diurnal heating cycle currently looks favorable, initiation is far from certain with such a strong EML spreading over SW KS at 700 mb.
Sunday also looks to be the warmest day of the long term forecast with highs ranging from the upper 80s north to mid to upper 90s along the KS/OK border.
A cold front is then expected to move through the area Monday.
A few isolated storms will be possible across our northern zones, otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The remainder of the forecast looks dry as shortwaves move well north of the area. As for temperatures, Highs Monday look to range from the low 80s along the I-70 corridor where the cold front and cloudiness will keep temps down to upper 90s along the KS/OK border where the cold front is not expected to move through until late. Highs then decrease into the 70s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current breezy southerly winds will weaken over the next couple hours to aob 12 kts and persist through late morning/early afternoon Saturday when a weak cold front moves through southwest KS and flips winds to the north to northeast.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 550 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A strong warming trend is expected through the weekend, with many locations warming well into the 90s Sunday afternoon.
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of US 283 Sunday afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail.
- A cold front is expected to provide cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tomorrow afternoon. Lee troughing across eastern Colorado will help bring southerly winds to western Kansas through tomorrow morning. A weak frontal boundary will then slide through a majority of the area tomorrow, then advect northward tomorrow afternoon. Winds behind this frontal boundary will generally be from a northerly direction. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across our northern zones tomorrow night, otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Above normal temperatures are expected through the short term with lows tonight ranging from the low 50s across west central Kansas with mid to upper 50s elsewhere. 850 temperatures ranging from the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow afternoon should support highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s. Short term ensemble models show a 30-70 percent chance of temperatures above 92 degrees south of a line from Great Bend to Elkhart. Lows tomorrow night are expected to range from the low 50s across west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
An upper level shortwave is expected to move out of the Four Corners region Sunday morning and into the area Sunday afternoon/evening. A strong dryline is expected to develop along the US 283 corridor Sunday afternoon, with strong instability east of the boundary.
Dewpoints well into the 60s and CAPE > 3,000 J/kg are expected in the warm sector east of the dryline. Ensembles suggest convective initiation along the dryline around 4-5 pm, in an environment of instability and shear clearly supportive of supercells. Strong consensus that any severe threat will be focused on the northeast zones of the DDC CWA Even though trough timing with the diurnal heating cycle currently looks favorable, initiation is far from certain with such a strong EML spreading over SW KS at 700 mb.
Sunday also looks to be the warmest day of the long term forecast with highs ranging from the upper 80s north to mid to upper 90s along the KS/OK border.
A cold front is then expected to move through the area Monday.
A few isolated storms will be possible across our northern zones, otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The remainder of the forecast looks dry as shortwaves move well north of the area. As for temperatures, Highs Monday look to range from the low 80s along the I-70 corridor where the cold front and cloudiness will keep temps down to upper 90s along the KS/OK border where the cold front is not expected to move through until late. Highs then decrease into the 70s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current breezy southerly winds will weaken over the next couple hours to aob 12 kts and persist through late morning/early afternoon Saturday when a weak cold front moves through southwest KS and flips winds to the north to northeast.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 22 sm | 37 min | S 13G22 | 9 sm | Clear | 82°F | 46°F | 28% | 29.72 |
Dodge City, KS,
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