Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 1:52 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM

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FXUS61 KRNK 172325 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 725 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another storm system will cross the area today through late Sunday. This system will bring widespread rain to the area.
Monday and Tuesday look drier. High temperatures generally look to be in the 60s and 70s through the weekend, with a slight warming trend beginning Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 715 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Heavy rain potential continues through the overnight hours.

Very weak stationary boundary continues to remain across the area this evening and will continue to be the focus for heavy rainfall. Have already had a few instances of localized 2 inch rainfall amounts. CAMs still indicating an uptick in activity after 8PM as lift increases over the area and the flooding threat may increase for several hours through early Saturday morning. Precipitable Water values continue to increase as well, leading to increased potential for very efficient rain producing storms.

As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

A stalled boundary remains draped across the region, currently situated in a northwest to southeast fashion across the CWA
Roughly from Hot Springs, VA to Lynchburg, VA and South Boston, VA. Weak east/northeast flow to the east of this boundary has remained rather stable. However, some better destabilization has occured west of the boundary and although heating has been limited due to ample cloud cover, still some modest SBCAPE of around 1000 J/kg or less. This is evident by some isolated convection already occuring in and around the Grayson Highlands and NW North Carolina.

Should see coverage of rain and storms continue to increase through this evening and overnight hours as better lift moves across the region. Rainfall intensity is also expected to increase as Precipitable Water values will be nearing 1.5".
Slow moving storms anchored across the stalled boundary will be concern through the overnight hours where weak convergence could lead to nearly stalled storms across the Southern Shenandoah Valley. No plans to extend the Flood Watch to include any other counties at the moment.

Rain potentially continues through tomorrow morning with a lull in the activity nearing sunrise. Widespread cloud cover will persist through tomorrow, but better lift with an approaching upper wave will likely produce another round of rain and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat again, leading to the potential for localized flooding.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Continued precip chances through Sunday then drier into the work week.

The upper low and enhanced moisture field across the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic will continue to allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm development through Sunday, then upper ridging amplifies to the west into the Ohio Valley. This wins over as it pushes the low and moisture axis east of the CWA by Sunday night and the prevailing drier subsident airmass is progged to persist into the first half of the work week.

Max temps look to be a bit below climo norms Sunday, then gradually warm Monday and Tuesday due to the dry ridge.

Forecast confidence is high.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Shower and storm chances return.

As the upper ridge of high pressure is looking to dampen and shift eastward, a broad trough may push an elongated front across the area Wednesday into Thursday and increase scattered convection potential.
There are discrepancies in the guidance with progression of this feature and if there is another ridge or shortwave trough on its heels for Friday. Have kept general chance pops for much of the period. Max temps should mainly be above normal. Thursday temps have greater uncertainty due to the question of the front timing.

Forecast confidence is medium.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

All terminals sub-VFR this evening and will trend to IFR as the night progresses and cigs lower.

Scattered rain/thunderstorms continue overnight with widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities developing late tonight into early Saturday morning. Clouds remain and MVFR seems likely through the remainder of Saturday morning.

Another round of rain and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon, with highest confidence of storms being from BLF to BCB to DAN and south. Periods of IFR will be possible in these storms, along with gusty winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Precipitation will continue through the weekend with numerous showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night. MVFR/IFR clouds and showers remain in the area for Sunday and Sunday night.

Some improvements by Monday as the slow moving storm system begins to depart east. Tuesday is the most likely day to be VFR.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...None.
WV...None.

Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:17 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:38 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:46 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:07 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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Wakefield, VA,