Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springdale, UT
May 21, 2024 9:41 PM MDT (03:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 6:11 PM Moonset 3:58 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 212201 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 401 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warmer and drier conditions spread over the area on Wednesday before the next cold front pushes into Utah. Thursday will feature cooler temperatures as another cold airmass settles.
An active weather pattern remains forecast heading into the weekend, with some uncertainty revolving around the forecast next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A trough that brought a cooler and more moist conditions to a large majority of the forecast area will continue departing the region through the evening hours. Afternoon instability driven showers have been noted across the northeastern portion of the CWA as the mid-level cold core moves across northern Utah and Wyoming. This cold core continues its track eastward through the evening which, alongside loss of heating, will contribute to decaying shower activity.
Thereafter, a brief period of zonal flow will take control of the region in the mid-levels. Lower in the atmosphere, warm and dry south to southwesterly return flow will bring a stout change in conditions heading into Wednesday. As compared to Tuesday, high temperatures on Wednesday will be on the order of 5 to 15 degrees warmer. The higher end of this warming will be see across northern Utah where highs will be pushing back into the mid-70s on the Wasatch Front.
Increasing lower level flow ahead of the next cold frontal boundary will bring breezy afternoon winds across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming on Wednesday afternoon. With temperatures rising and drier air being introduced to the area, these winds will combine with the aforementioned and create areas of critical fire weather conditions. See the "Fire Weather" section of the AFD for more details.
The next cold frontal boundary begins pushing into northern Utah late Wednesday/ early Thursday morning as another trough settles over the West. The boundary looks to progress through the southern Wasatch Front by 3-4AM Thursday, continuing its progression through the day. As the boundary progresses across the northern portions of the area overnight, precipitation looks to be limited to the northeastern portions of the CWA as a deeper moisture profile lacks for the remainder of the area. Even then, not expecting much in the way of impacts. Could see some snow mix into the higher elevation valleys of the Wasatch Back, Bear River Valley, and Uinta Co., Wyoming, however, impacts/ accumulations from snow are likely to be negligible given the warm antecedent conditions and speed at which the boundary will progress.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday), Issued 409 AM MDT...
Long term forecast period begins with a shortwave trough moving east into the Northern Rockies, with an associated cold frontal boundary moving southward through Utah. This front continues to appear fairly dry in nature, with most guidance (including what limited high res CAM guidance is now available) suggesting just some light showers along/near the front, and largely remaining north of US-40 or so. Boundary still looks to stall somewhere near to a bit south of the I-70 corridor as the parent shortwave continues eastward, with much cooler postfrontal temperatures settling. To that point, Thursday afternoon highs for locations behind the front look to be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than that of Wednesday. Aside from temps/precip, still seeing potential for some prefrontal wind gusts ~25-40 mph, generally across southern and eastern Utah, as well as some gusty postfrontal winds in portions of the southwest Wyoming. For Friday, remnant boundary will likely remain draped somewhere across central Utah, and help trigger some isolated to scattered diurnal showers as weaker trailing energy advects through overhead. Airmass will moderate during the day as well, so will see temperatures begin to rebound back upwards.
Warming temperatures continue into Saturday as the old baroclinic zone washes out and H7 temperatures increase. As a result, expect daytime highs Saturday near to maybe a bit below climatological normal for late May. Continued energy advecting through in advance of another approaching shortwave will once again trigger some isolated to scattered showers across the forecast region. General consensus amongst guidance is that this shortwave and associated cold front take a similar progression to the prior system Saturday evening into Sunday, with the fairly dry front moving south and stalling/washing out across central Utah Sunday. The exception to this scenario appears to be something akin to the deterministic Canadian model (and supported by ~30% of ensembles) where shortwave is more disjointed/weaker, and thus any surface reflection is much more muted. That would likely be a drier and more mild scenario, but for now kept NBM guidance for Sunday which includes a cooldown of several degrees from central Utah northward in addition to some continued isolated to scattered showers.
A bit of uncertainty remains for Memorial Day, with around 55% of ensemble membership supporting a quick building ridge, and the other 45% maintaining some sort of weak lingering trough influences. For the ridge scenario, dry conditions and normal to slightly above normal temperatures would be expected. For the weak/lingering trough, a more muted warmup and maybe some isolated precipitation chances (generally further north in the forecast region) would be a bit more likely. In any case, little suggests anything of a washout type of day or much in the way of anything substantial at this time, but those with outdoor plans may want to keep an eye on the forecast all the same. Almost all guidance then supports further building of a ridge moving into midweek, with dry conditions and warm temperatures favored. While out just beyond the general time period of this forecast (and subject to change being over a week out), current NBM guidance even carries a 25% chance for KSLC to see its first 90 degree day on Wednesday 5/29. For context, the mean first 90+ degree day for KSLC specifically is 6/3, so not too far off all things considered.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Conditions will remain dry with a few high clouds. Northerly winds will transition to a southerly drainage flow overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist across the airspace. Dry conditions will continue with only a few high clouds. A gusty northerly wind component across most sites will weaken overnight as winds become light and variable.
FIRE WEATHER
A trough which brought a colder and more moist airmass to Utah will depart the region today, allowing for a drier and warmer southerly return flow to prevail across the region. Wednesday will feature high temperatures that are 5 to 15 degrees warmer than what has been observed across Utah on Tuesday, with the higher end of this warming range expected across northern Utah. Drier air will cause afternoon minimum relative humidity values to drop by 3-5% for most areas. Additionally, an increase in wind speed is expected out of the southwest and will create areas of critical fire weather conditions across Utah, mostly confined to the western half of the state.
Another cold front begins pushing into Utah late Wednesday night through Thursday morning, and will bring a low to medium (15-30%)
chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the northern Utah mountains. Passing showers will bring generally less than a 35% chance of a wetting rain. Temperatures and relative humidity remain a bit more moderated through the late week and first half of the weekend as an active weather pattern maintains a cooler and wetter atmosphere. There is increasing confidence that a warmer and drier pattern will spread over Utah next week, which may bring some of the hottest temperatures so far this year.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 401 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warmer and drier conditions spread over the area on Wednesday before the next cold front pushes into Utah. Thursday will feature cooler temperatures as another cold airmass settles.
An active weather pattern remains forecast heading into the weekend, with some uncertainty revolving around the forecast next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A trough that brought a cooler and more moist conditions to a large majority of the forecast area will continue departing the region through the evening hours. Afternoon instability driven showers have been noted across the northeastern portion of the CWA as the mid-level cold core moves across northern Utah and Wyoming. This cold core continues its track eastward through the evening which, alongside loss of heating, will contribute to decaying shower activity.
Thereafter, a brief period of zonal flow will take control of the region in the mid-levels. Lower in the atmosphere, warm and dry south to southwesterly return flow will bring a stout change in conditions heading into Wednesday. As compared to Tuesday, high temperatures on Wednesday will be on the order of 5 to 15 degrees warmer. The higher end of this warming will be see across northern Utah where highs will be pushing back into the mid-70s on the Wasatch Front.
Increasing lower level flow ahead of the next cold frontal boundary will bring breezy afternoon winds across much of Utah and southwest Wyoming on Wednesday afternoon. With temperatures rising and drier air being introduced to the area, these winds will combine with the aforementioned and create areas of critical fire weather conditions. See the "Fire Weather" section of the AFD for more details.
The next cold frontal boundary begins pushing into northern Utah late Wednesday/ early Thursday morning as another trough settles over the West. The boundary looks to progress through the southern Wasatch Front by 3-4AM Thursday, continuing its progression through the day. As the boundary progresses across the northern portions of the area overnight, precipitation looks to be limited to the northeastern portions of the CWA as a deeper moisture profile lacks for the remainder of the area. Even then, not expecting much in the way of impacts. Could see some snow mix into the higher elevation valleys of the Wasatch Back, Bear River Valley, and Uinta Co., Wyoming, however, impacts/ accumulations from snow are likely to be negligible given the warm antecedent conditions and speed at which the boundary will progress.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday), Issued 409 AM MDT...
Long term forecast period begins with a shortwave trough moving east into the Northern Rockies, with an associated cold frontal boundary moving southward through Utah. This front continues to appear fairly dry in nature, with most guidance (including what limited high res CAM guidance is now available) suggesting just some light showers along/near the front, and largely remaining north of US-40 or so. Boundary still looks to stall somewhere near to a bit south of the I-70 corridor as the parent shortwave continues eastward, with much cooler postfrontal temperatures settling. To that point, Thursday afternoon highs for locations behind the front look to be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than that of Wednesday. Aside from temps/precip, still seeing potential for some prefrontal wind gusts ~25-40 mph, generally across southern and eastern Utah, as well as some gusty postfrontal winds in portions of the southwest Wyoming. For Friday, remnant boundary will likely remain draped somewhere across central Utah, and help trigger some isolated to scattered diurnal showers as weaker trailing energy advects through overhead. Airmass will moderate during the day as well, so will see temperatures begin to rebound back upwards.
Warming temperatures continue into Saturday as the old baroclinic zone washes out and H7 temperatures increase. As a result, expect daytime highs Saturday near to maybe a bit below climatological normal for late May. Continued energy advecting through in advance of another approaching shortwave will once again trigger some isolated to scattered showers across the forecast region. General consensus amongst guidance is that this shortwave and associated cold front take a similar progression to the prior system Saturday evening into Sunday, with the fairly dry front moving south and stalling/washing out across central Utah Sunday. The exception to this scenario appears to be something akin to the deterministic Canadian model (and supported by ~30% of ensembles) where shortwave is more disjointed/weaker, and thus any surface reflection is much more muted. That would likely be a drier and more mild scenario, but for now kept NBM guidance for Sunday which includes a cooldown of several degrees from central Utah northward in addition to some continued isolated to scattered showers.
A bit of uncertainty remains for Memorial Day, with around 55% of ensemble membership supporting a quick building ridge, and the other 45% maintaining some sort of weak lingering trough influences. For the ridge scenario, dry conditions and normal to slightly above normal temperatures would be expected. For the weak/lingering trough, a more muted warmup and maybe some isolated precipitation chances (generally further north in the forecast region) would be a bit more likely. In any case, little suggests anything of a washout type of day or much in the way of anything substantial at this time, but those with outdoor plans may want to keep an eye on the forecast all the same. Almost all guidance then supports further building of a ridge moving into midweek, with dry conditions and warm temperatures favored. While out just beyond the general time period of this forecast (and subject to change being over a week out), current NBM guidance even carries a 25% chance for KSLC to see its first 90 degree day on Wednesday 5/29. For context, the mean first 90+ degree day for KSLC specifically is 6/3, so not too far off all things considered.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Conditions will remain dry with a few high clouds. Northerly winds will transition to a southerly drainage flow overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist across the airspace. Dry conditions will continue with only a few high clouds. A gusty northerly wind component across most sites will weaken overnight as winds become light and variable.
FIRE WEATHER
A trough which brought a colder and more moist airmass to Utah will depart the region today, allowing for a drier and warmer southerly return flow to prevail across the region. Wednesday will feature high temperatures that are 5 to 15 degrees warmer than what has been observed across Utah on Tuesday, with the higher end of this warming range expected across northern Utah. Drier air will cause afternoon minimum relative humidity values to drop by 3-5% for most areas. Additionally, an increase in wind speed is expected out of the southwest and will create areas of critical fire weather conditions across Utah, mostly confined to the western half of the state.
Another cold front begins pushing into Utah late Wednesday night through Thursday morning, and will bring a low to medium (15-30%)
chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the northern Utah mountains. Passing showers will bring generally less than a 35% chance of a wetting rain. Temperatures and relative humidity remain a bit more moderated through the late week and first half of the weekend as an active weather pattern maintains a cooler and wetter atmosphere. There is increasing confidence that a warmer and drier pattern will spread over Utah next week, which may bring some of the hottest temperatures so far this year.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAZC COLORADO CITY MUNI,AZ | 19 sm | 26 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 61°F | 14°F | 16% | 30.03 |
Cedar City, UT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE