Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO
May 17, 2024 7:08 PM CDT (00:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:53 PM Moonset 2:09 AM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 172311 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 611 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. No severe weather or flooding expected.
- Above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
- Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential early to mid next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
A glance at visible satellite imagery reveals a cumulus field gradually becoming more agitated early this afternoon. The expectation remains for this to evolve into weakly forced scattered convection across the area this afternoon. Hi- res guidance indicates anywhere from 1000-1600 J/kg of instability available to tap into, so lightning will be possible. Given the low shear environment, this activity will be pulse- like in nature, with any one storm likely to be short-lived. Lightning and brief moderate to heavy rain are the primary hazards.
Chances for convection wind down this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Areas of fog may develop late tonight into early tomorrow morning as clearing skies and light winds will support radiative cooling. These factors combined with residual low- level moisture support fog development, particularly across low-lying and sheltered environments. The 12Z HRRR probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile are highest south of I-44 where they range from 40-80%.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Warm Temperatures: Temperatures will be on the rise Saturday into early next week as mid-level ridging moves into the area. NBM (4.2) data show fairly small 25th-75th percentile spreads of 3-4 degrees, indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Global models depict anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures ranging from 16-20 degrees Celsius Sunday through Tuesday, which is close to the 90th percentile of climatology. This warm air will support high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s during this time, with some areas possibly touching 90. These temperatures would come within a few degrees of daily records (see Climate section below).
Temperatures look to cool down Wednesday though the end of the week with the passage of a cold front. Forecast highs range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Severe Thunderstorm Chances: Most areas remain dry through the weekend, though a passing shortwave will introduce some shower and thunderstorm chances late Sunday night into Monday, mainly across eastern Kansas and central Missouri. These storms are expected to weaken as they shift east out of Kansas and Nebraska, and severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
We are, however, continuing to monitor the severe thunderstorm potential Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble guidance depicts an upper- level trough with multiple shortwave impulses over the western CONUS Monday that will shift east early next week. At the surface, a deepening low pressure system over the Plains is progged to track northeast into the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front along with it. Strong and deep southwesterly flow will provide significant moisture advection over the region along with deep-layer shear. While many details still remain unclear and need to be ironed out in future forecasts, the atmosphere may be supportive of organized convection capable of producing severe weather. As of now, the most likely timing appears to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has our entire area outlined in a Slight (15%)
risk for severe storms.
Notably, ensembles have trended a bit slower/later with their timing. A slower solution may also open the door to additional severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday, though this threat is highly conditional and low confidence at this point. CIPS analogs and CSU machine learning probabilities also highlight severe weather potential during this period. Stay tuned for further updates in the coming days.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The threat for a few thunderstorms this evening is diminishing for the TAF sites and have left out at this time. Winds will remain light and variable with skies clearing overnight. Fog will likely form and we expect conditions to drop into MVFR with visibilities. BBG has the potential to drop into IFR vis. Vis may drop lower than current TAF suggests therefore will monitor for updates. Conditions should return to VFR after sunrise lasting through the TAF period.
CLIMATE
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Record High Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964
May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 71/1902
May 21: KSGF: 70/1902
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 611 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. No severe weather or flooding expected.
- Above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
- Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential early to mid next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
A glance at visible satellite imagery reveals a cumulus field gradually becoming more agitated early this afternoon. The expectation remains for this to evolve into weakly forced scattered convection across the area this afternoon. Hi- res guidance indicates anywhere from 1000-1600 J/kg of instability available to tap into, so lightning will be possible. Given the low shear environment, this activity will be pulse- like in nature, with any one storm likely to be short-lived. Lightning and brief moderate to heavy rain are the primary hazards.
Chances for convection wind down this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Areas of fog may develop late tonight into early tomorrow morning as clearing skies and light winds will support radiative cooling. These factors combined with residual low- level moisture support fog development, particularly across low-lying and sheltered environments. The 12Z HRRR probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile are highest south of I-44 where they range from 40-80%.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Warm Temperatures: Temperatures will be on the rise Saturday into early next week as mid-level ridging moves into the area. NBM (4.2) data show fairly small 25th-75th percentile spreads of 3-4 degrees, indicating high confidence in the temperature forecast. Global models depict anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures ranging from 16-20 degrees Celsius Sunday through Tuesday, which is close to the 90th percentile of climatology. This warm air will support high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s during this time, with some areas possibly touching 90. These temperatures would come within a few degrees of daily records (see Climate section below).
Temperatures look to cool down Wednesday though the end of the week with the passage of a cold front. Forecast highs range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Severe Thunderstorm Chances: Most areas remain dry through the weekend, though a passing shortwave will introduce some shower and thunderstorm chances late Sunday night into Monday, mainly across eastern Kansas and central Missouri. These storms are expected to weaken as they shift east out of Kansas and Nebraska, and severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
We are, however, continuing to monitor the severe thunderstorm potential Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble guidance depicts an upper- level trough with multiple shortwave impulses over the western CONUS Monday that will shift east early next week. At the surface, a deepening low pressure system over the Plains is progged to track northeast into the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front along with it. Strong and deep southwesterly flow will provide significant moisture advection over the region along with deep-layer shear. While many details still remain unclear and need to be ironed out in future forecasts, the atmosphere may be supportive of organized convection capable of producing severe weather. As of now, the most likely timing appears to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has our entire area outlined in a Slight (15%)
risk for severe storms.
Notably, ensembles have trended a bit slower/later with their timing. A slower solution may also open the door to additional severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday, though this threat is highly conditional and low confidence at this point. CIPS analogs and CSU machine learning probabilities also highlight severe weather potential during this period. Stay tuned for further updates in the coming days.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
The threat for a few thunderstorms this evening is diminishing for the TAF sites and have left out at this time. Winds will remain light and variable with skies clearing overnight. Fog will likely form and we expect conditions to drop into MVFR with visibilities. BBG has the potential to drop into IFR vis. Vis may drop lower than current TAF suggests therefore will monitor for updates. Conditions should return to VFR after sunrise lasting through the TAF period.
CLIMATE
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Record High Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964
May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
May 20: KSGF: 71/1902
May 21: KSGF: 70/1902
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSGF SPRINGFIELDBRANSON NATIONAL,MO | 6 sm | 16 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 29.76 |
Springfield, MO,
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