Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McCord, OK
May 21, 2024 8:25 AM CDT (13:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 6:04 PM Moonset 3:54 AM |
FXUS64 KOUN 211144 AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 644 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
The main weather concern in the short term will be the return of severe weather potential, beginning this afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. Early morning water vapor imagery captures a shortwave trough quickly crossing the Great Divide. This feature is forecast to continue deepening while sliding towards the Corn Belt by this afternoon/early evening.
Synoptic support will be rather modest across our area (given aforementioned wave evolution), with ~neutral height tendency through the afternoon. Still, with a dryline feature/seasonable low-level moisture/filtered insolation, will maintain very low probability (~20%) mentions for storm development this afternoon/evening. However, should a storm form and sustain, severe weather (hail/wind) would be likely given strong wind shear/instability in place. The tornado risk appears very low, primarily owing to veered low-level flow. This potential looks to focus in areas along and east of a Stillwater to Henrietta TX line.
After sunset/into the overnight, a trailing cold front is expected to sink southward across the area. Expectation is for scattered to potentially widespread convective development as the cold front intercepts the retreating dryline early Wednesday morning (after ~4 AM). Continued severe weather risk is expected with this activity, though main hazards will be dependent on storm evolution (relative to frontal position). With the composite front expected to continue advancing slowly southward, combined with east/northeastward motion vectors for individual storms, a quick transition towards 'elevated' nature (hail risk) may ensure with convection. However, any development south of/or interacting favorably with the front would carry an all hazards (hail/wind/very low tornado) risk Wednesday morning.
Ungar
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Wednesday: Severe weather chances will continue through a potentially large portion of the day (pending evolution of surfaces features and upper wave timing). Convection, potentially sporadically severe, is expected to be ongoing around daybreak across portions of central into southern Oklahoma. Activity is expected to advance into eastern Oklahoma through the mid-morning time frame. Depending on how far morning convection modifies the surface front (southward), additional severe storms are possible across south-central into southeast Oklahoma during Wednesday afternoon/evening ahead of an emerging 'southern stream' upper wave.
Will continue the main message of a hail/wind/low tornado risk across southern zones, though position of surface front/airmass recovery in the wake of morning storms will play a significant role on whether surface-based storms/outcome remain favored. Heavy rainfall and flooding will also become an issue across southern Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon evening, especially where repeated rounds of heavy storms occur over the preceding 24-hours. A Flood Watch may become necessary at later updates if confidence in this potential continues to increase.
Thursday: Severe weather potential will continue, with a larger swath of the CWA under risk compared to prior days. A broad belt of 50+ kt mid/upper flow will continue across the southwestern US/Plains. A majority of guidance members/grand ensemble show potential for multiple low-amplitude wave ejections across the Plains during the afternoon/evening. While the midweek front is expected to reside across portions of north-central Texas by daybreak on Thursday, sufficient mass response is expected to occur during the day ahead of the aforementioned features. While specifics on storm coverage and evolution are uncertain, a combination of dryline and warm air advection initiation regimes are possible across our area during the afternoon/evening. Severe weather risk would likely accompany any sustained storm through the late evening period. Heavy rainfall/flooding concern may also continue, especially if convective focus resides across areas where highest totals occur earlier in the week (i.e. south- central into southeast Oklahoma).
Friday-Holiday Weekend: At least low probability storm chances look to continue into the weekend, with nature/magnitude of severe risk TBD. Broad southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained heading into the weekend. This will offer at least low potential for storms during the period. By early next week, upper ridging looks to return across the western US, potentially promoting a return towards drier times.
Ungar
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
MVFR cigs will spread northward ahead of dryline this morning, affecting KDUA/KOKC/KOUN/KSWO/KPNC before winds veer through 15-16Z and allow cigs to erode. VFR cigs will likely hold on at KDUA into the afternoon. Gusty south winds will veer to southwest to west most terminals before shifting to northerly this afternoon across northern Oklahoma and spreading slowly southward tonight.
TSRA this afternoon expected to stay north and east of terminals, at least chances too low for TEMPO or PROB30. Probability for TSRA will increase toward and after the end of forecast period across central and southeast Oklahoma terminals so will mention PROB30 last few hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 93 64 77 62 / 10 20 40 40 Hobart OK 95 61 79 61 / 0 10 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 95 71 82 66 / 10 10 50 40 Gage OK 90 54 79 56 / 0 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 92 59 76 59 / 10 30 30 20 Durant OK 89 73 85 66 / 20 10 60 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 644 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
The main weather concern in the short term will be the return of severe weather potential, beginning this afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. Early morning water vapor imagery captures a shortwave trough quickly crossing the Great Divide. This feature is forecast to continue deepening while sliding towards the Corn Belt by this afternoon/early evening.
Synoptic support will be rather modest across our area (given aforementioned wave evolution), with ~neutral height tendency through the afternoon. Still, with a dryline feature/seasonable low-level moisture/filtered insolation, will maintain very low probability (~20%) mentions for storm development this afternoon/evening. However, should a storm form and sustain, severe weather (hail/wind) would be likely given strong wind shear/instability in place. The tornado risk appears very low, primarily owing to veered low-level flow. This potential looks to focus in areas along and east of a Stillwater to Henrietta TX line.
After sunset/into the overnight, a trailing cold front is expected to sink southward across the area. Expectation is for scattered to potentially widespread convective development as the cold front intercepts the retreating dryline early Wednesday morning (after ~4 AM). Continued severe weather risk is expected with this activity, though main hazards will be dependent on storm evolution (relative to frontal position). With the composite front expected to continue advancing slowly southward, combined with east/northeastward motion vectors for individual storms, a quick transition towards 'elevated' nature (hail risk) may ensure with convection. However, any development south of/or interacting favorably with the front would carry an all hazards (hail/wind/very low tornado) risk Wednesday morning.
Ungar
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Wednesday: Severe weather chances will continue through a potentially large portion of the day (pending evolution of surfaces features and upper wave timing). Convection, potentially sporadically severe, is expected to be ongoing around daybreak across portions of central into southern Oklahoma. Activity is expected to advance into eastern Oklahoma through the mid-morning time frame. Depending on how far morning convection modifies the surface front (southward), additional severe storms are possible across south-central into southeast Oklahoma during Wednesday afternoon/evening ahead of an emerging 'southern stream' upper wave.
Will continue the main message of a hail/wind/low tornado risk across southern zones, though position of surface front/airmass recovery in the wake of morning storms will play a significant role on whether surface-based storms/outcome remain favored. Heavy rainfall and flooding will also become an issue across southern Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon evening, especially where repeated rounds of heavy storms occur over the preceding 24-hours. A Flood Watch may become necessary at later updates if confidence in this potential continues to increase.
Thursday: Severe weather potential will continue, with a larger swath of the CWA under risk compared to prior days. A broad belt of 50+ kt mid/upper flow will continue across the southwestern US/Plains. A majority of guidance members/grand ensemble show potential for multiple low-amplitude wave ejections across the Plains during the afternoon/evening. While the midweek front is expected to reside across portions of north-central Texas by daybreak on Thursday, sufficient mass response is expected to occur during the day ahead of the aforementioned features. While specifics on storm coverage and evolution are uncertain, a combination of dryline and warm air advection initiation regimes are possible across our area during the afternoon/evening. Severe weather risk would likely accompany any sustained storm through the late evening period. Heavy rainfall/flooding concern may also continue, especially if convective focus resides across areas where highest totals occur earlier in the week (i.e. south- central into southeast Oklahoma).
Friday-Holiday Weekend: At least low probability storm chances look to continue into the weekend, with nature/magnitude of severe risk TBD. Broad southwesterly flow is forecast to be maintained heading into the weekend. This will offer at least low potential for storms during the period. By early next week, upper ridging looks to return across the western US, potentially promoting a return towards drier times.
Ungar
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
MVFR cigs will spread northward ahead of dryline this morning, affecting KDUA/KOKC/KOUN/KSWO/KPNC before winds veer through 15-16Z and allow cigs to erode. VFR cigs will likely hold on at KDUA into the afternoon. Gusty south winds will veer to southwest to west most terminals before shifting to northerly this afternoon across northern Oklahoma and spreading slowly southward tonight.
TSRA this afternoon expected to stay north and east of terminals, at least chances too low for TEMPO or PROB30. Probability for TSRA will increase toward and after the end of forecast period across central and southeast Oklahoma terminals so will mention PROB30 last few hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 93 64 77 62 / 10 20 40 40 Hobart OK 95 61 79 61 / 0 10 20 20 Wichita Falls TX 95 71 82 66 / 10 10 50 40 Gage OK 90 54 79 56 / 0 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 92 59 76 59 / 10 30 30 20 Durant OK 89 73 85 66 / 20 10 60 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPNC PONCA CITY RGNL,OK | 7 sm | 32 min | S 13G22 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 29.61 | |
| KBKN BLACKWELLTONKAWA MUNI,OK | 20 sm | 10 min | S 18G25 | Partly Cloudy | 77°F | 72°F | 83% | 29.61 |
Vance AFB, OK,
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