Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 5:47 PM   Moonset 3:38 AM

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FXUS64 KLZK 211048 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 545 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The near term will begin with ridging from the western Gulf Coast to the southeast United States including Arkansas. Under the ridge, it will be another day with well above average temperatures in the lower 90s in central, southern, and northeast sections of the state. A powerful storm system will track around the ridge from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through this evening.
The system will try to drag a cold front into the region.

Ahead of the front, it appears thunderstorms will develop from southwest Missouri into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with isolated storms possible in western Arkansas. Storms will build across the northern and central counties through the evening hours before weakening. Modest instability/shear may yield some severe weather, although it should be spotty.

As the front sags slowly to the south on Wednesday, data is showing another cluster of storms/an MCS tracking from central/eastern Oklahoma into west central/central Arkansas in the morning. Additional development is possible mainly in central/southern parts of the state later in the day and after dark.

While forecast soundings indicate a lot of instability on Wednesday, and CAPE over 3000 J/kg in some areas, the amount of severe weather that materializes will depend on morning clouds/convection and how much warming actually occurs. Also, shear values do not appear terribly impressive, so instability will be the main driver. Models are quite a bit cooler Wednesday than today, and this will tend to limit severe weather. Given multiple rounds of precipitation, there is a heavy rain/flash flood concern. Could easily have two to three plus inch amounts, but the placement is not clear at this point. It may be a little farther south than currently projected.

The front will still be around as the period ends, and that will keep the pattern unsettled into the long term.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An active pattern will continue into the long term period as SW/W flow continues through the weekend. Multiple upper level disturbances will move over AR in this flow aloft...with continued chances for convection nearly each day into Memorial Day.

The first upper disturbance will move over AR Thu into Thu night...with SHRA/TSRA expected. Some SVR convection will be possible with plenty of instability and enough SHR expected. The overall storm evolution remains uncertain however...along with some capping expected with the potential for overnight convection. Even so...SVR storms will remain possible.

By later in the week and over the weekend...convection will remain possible...and the threat for some SVR Wx will remain each day.
However...the threat for organized SVR Wx remains uncertain this far out as details remain unclear on instability/CIN/SHR and timing/placement of mesoscale features
Even so
will need to pay attention for the evolution of the SVR threat in the coming days.

With several rounds of convection expected into early next week...there will be an increased threat for areas of heavy rainfall. Several inches of rainfall look possible by the end of the forecast...but exact placement of heaviest rainfall axis remains uncertain
For now
will hold off on any Flash Flood Watch products for the long term at this time.

Temps through the period will vary some from day to day...but 70s and 80s will be likely for highs...with 90s for some areas. Lows will be in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected today. There will be some increase in high clouds this afternoon, along with scattered cumulus clouds between 4000 and 5000 feet. Winds will be south/southwest at 10 to 15 knots today with 18 to 28 mph gusts at times. Clouds will thicken tonight as showers and thunderstorms build over northern and central sections of the state. After midnight, low clouds and patchy fog will create MVFR/IFR conditions across much of the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 89 70 83 66 / 0 50 70 80 Camden AR 90 73 87 68 / 0 30 40 40 Harrison AR 87 65 79 63 / 30 50 80 70 Hot Springs AR 90 71 85 66 / 10 40 60 70 Little Rock AR 92 73 85 70 / 0 50 60 70 Monticello AR 91 73 88 71 / 0 20 30 40 Mount Ida AR 88 71 85 66 / 10 50 70 70 Mountain Home AR 88 67 80 64 / 20 50 80 70 Newport AR 90 71 85 67 / 0 60 70 80 Pine Bluff AR 91 73 87 69 / 0 30 50 60 Russellville AR 90 70 84 66 / 10 50 70 70 Searcy AR 90 70 84 67 / 0 50 70 70 Stuttgart AR 90 73 87 70 / 0 40 50 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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