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FXUS64 KTSA 211824 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 124 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Warm, humid, and breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon and evening. Storm chances will ramp up later this afternoon and into the evening, continuing into the overnight hours as a cold front moves into the area from the northwest. Model guidance continues to show a deeply unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/Kg through the afternoon and evening south of the front. Surface-850 hPa specific humidity will be near the 99th percentile for this time of year with IVT also near the 99th percentile as a consequence of an usually strong low pressure to the northwest enhancing the southerly flow.

Initial convective initiation has already begun in south-central OK.
These elevated storms will move into southeast OK the next 2 hours.
The main severe hazard will be hail. Convective initiation along the front is expected around 3-6 PM with a line of storms forming along it. There will also be the potential for additional isolated cells anywhere east or south of the front. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
CAMs remain a bit uncertain with respect to how far south along the boundary storms will form. They also remain uncertain with the coverage and intensity of storms ahead of the front. With this in mind, the best coverage and intensity of storms will likely be across far northeast OK and northwest AR during the early evening.

By late in the evening more widespread storm activity will develop across southeast OK. Further north, storms will continue to develop along the front, which will slowly sag south in the vicinity of I- 40. Some areas with repeated rounds of storms will see localized flash flood potential. Due to recent rains, as well as the expectation of continued heavy rain Wednesday, and low level moisture remaining near the climatological max for this time of year, a Flood Watch was issued through Friday morning to account for this threat. CAM guidance shows a resurgence of elevated storms along and behind the front in the 9-12Z period across the area, but southeast OK in particular. These storms will once again have the potential to become severe. Discrete cells and cells north of the front would be hail dominant, but any storms near the boundary would be capable of all severe hazards.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The cluster of storms mentioned at the end of the short term period will progress east to northeast into northwest AR bringing widespread heavy rainfall with some severe potential continuing. As storms (presumably) grow upscale into a line, the threat of strong winds would become dominant, but other severe hazards would remain possible. CAM guidance is all over the place for later in the day Wednesday, but the general theme is that multiple rounds of additional showers and thunderstorms are likely, but will continue to focus in southeast OK and northwest AR. As the cold front will be near or south of the Red River by Wednesday, high temperatures will be much lower. Highs in the mid 70s will be common north of the boundary, except perhaps low 80s near the Red River. Low temperatures north of the boundary will be in the low to mid 60s and low 70s near and south of it.

For Thursday the remnant cold front will lift north, but it will become diffuse and wash out. With warm and humid air streaming back through the area and yet another shortwave trough moving through, widespread storms are expected to develop again. Similar to the preceding days, anomalous instability, moisture, and wind shear will be present so severe weather is expected. Areas of heavy rainfall will also occur.

Ensemble guidance is in decent agreement that we will get a break from the storms Friday, with just some lower potential across the terrain in Arkansas. Saturday will see storm chances resume, with some lingering probabilities into Sunday. By early next week ensemble guidance is in excellent agreement that a large ridge will build across the Great Basin, bringing much warmer air back into the area under northwest flow. However, smaller scale details such as how strong the ridge will be or where it will center are still unknown. About 40% of guidance position the ridge in a way that would be favorable for nocturnal MCS activity, but given the lead time will just go with NBM PoPs for now.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Corridor of low VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings will remain across E OK / NW AR terminals this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Thunderstorm chances increase from late afternoon through the evening as a cold front moves slowly southward into the region. Periodic flight impacts are likely for NW AR terminals with slightly lesser chances further west.
Lower ceilings develop again overnight along with a chance for thunderstorm redevelop in vicinity of the slow moving cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 76 63 82 / 30 40 40 50 FSM 69 80 66 84 / 60 70 70 60 MLC 67 77 65 82 / 30 80 70 60 BVO 59 76 58 81 / 20 40 30 50 FYV 65 77 61 80 / 60 80 70 60 BYV 63 74 61 80 / 60 70 60 50 MKO 65 75 64 80 / 50 70 60 60 MIO 57 74 61 80 / 40 50 40 50 F10 63 75 63 80 / 50 70 60 60 HHW 70 80 66 82 / 30 80 70 60

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029.

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