Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:25 PM   Moonset 2:41 AM

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FXUS64 KOHX 180145 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 845 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 832 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Water vapor imagery this evening shows a trough to our west over the OK/AR area which will be moving eastward over our area tomorrow. In the meantime, tonight's 00Z sounding shows a saturated atmosphere with a PWAT of 1.55 inches - not a daily record, but over the 90th percentile for the date. This has resulted in a few sprinkles persisting this evening, and this trend is expected to continue overnight. As this trough approaches, shower activity will become more scattered on Saturday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, and a few of these may become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning the main threats. Otherwise, with plenty of moisture, patchy fog and low clouds will be possible tonight.

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers continue to lift through Middle Tennessee this morning.
Showers are expected to become less numerous this afternoon through the overnight hours. Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go.

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some patchy fog will be possible again Saturday night, otherwise Saturday night should be mainly dry. A couple of showers can't be ruled out on Sunday along the plateau but elongated upper ridging will build in from the west with temperatures rebounding into the 80s. Monday and Tuesday continue to look warm with highs getting into the upper 80s and potentially touching 90 degrees. Models have slowed down rain chances from Tuesday night/Wednesday to Wednesday night/Thursday. This means Wednesday will be another warm day with temperatures in the 80s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Wide flight category variations thru 18/24Z with lowest ceiling threshold continuing to look like they will become established after 18/06Z as calm to light north winds prevail. Continued with previously mentioned TEMPO periods fog except BNA 18/08Z-18/13Z.
From 18/18Z-18/24Z looks to be best potential timing for tstm development BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV. Although tstms could form/move across, or in vcnty of terminals during this time interval, addressed best potential of tstms per 2 hour TEMPO groups.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 64 79 63 86 / 40 80 20 0 Clarksville 62 79 61 85 / 30 70 10 0 Crossville 60 73 58 79 / 50 90 40 10 Columbia 63 79 62 85 / 40 80 30 0 Cookeville 61 75 60 80 / 50 80 30 10 Jamestown 59 74 58 80 / 50 80 40 10 Lawrenceburg 63 79 62 84 / 40 80 40 0 Murfreesboro 63 80 62 85 / 40 80 30 0 Waverly 62 79 62 85 / 30 70 20 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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