Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wake Forest, NC
May 21, 2024 12:13 PM EDT (16:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 5:45 PM Moonset 3:40 AM |
FXUS62 KRAH 211327 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 925 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS Valley Thursday and Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 925 AM Tuesday...
All low clouds have cleared out of northeastern counties, leaving just a few high clouds around the region. Tweaked some hourly temperature/dewpoint grids, but more seasonable high temperatures in the low to mid 80s remained unchanged in the forecast. Previous discussion follows.
As of 345 AM Tuesday...
A weak mid/upr-level trough will move across the OH Valley today and cntl Appalachians and Middle Atlantic tonight. Preceding deep dryness and stability evident on the 00Z/21st GSO RAOB, and neutral height tendency aloft with the approach/passage of the trough, suggest the only sensible weather impact may be thin cirrus overnight.
At the surface, high pressure centered this morning along the Middle Atlantic coast will continue to extend swwd and across the Southeast.
Modification of the high and associated air mass will favor afternoon temperatures about 2-5 F warmer than Mon, or 79 to 85. The continued proximity and presence of the surface ridge will yield strong radiational cooling once again, with lows mostly in the mid- upr 50s and accompanied by a risk of radiation fog over the Coastal Plain.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Tuesday...
A sub-tropical mid-level ridge and the underlying wrn extension of surface high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic will remain over the Southeast, while an Appalachian-lee surface trough will develop across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont. Warmer and dry conditions will result, with highs in the mid-upr 80s, followed by milder lows in the mid 50s to lwr 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 346 AM Tuesday...
Upper pattern through the extended: A low-amplitude upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes Thursday. A series of short waves will then move through the TN Valley and wash out over the southern Appalachians Friday through Monday.
Thursday: On Thursday, a low-amplitude upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our central to northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day. While some deterministic models suggest better coverage over central NC Thursday evening (e.g. GFS, Canadian, EURO), ensemble guidance has higher probabilities for precipitation staying north into central VA, lowering with southeastward extend. This makes sense conceptually as the better forcing/low-level moisture still appears to stay to our north. As such, decided to lean on ensemble guidance and continue to hold just slight to low chance POPs Thursday afternoon/evening.
Ensembles continue to simulate a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley Friday, followed by a secondary vort signature passing over central NC on Saturday. Deterministic models are still in a bit of disagreement wrt the evolution of these features, but overall it still looks like periods of unsettled weather should occur Friday through Monday. Severe weather parameters are not popping off the charts at this point during this period. However, ensembles continue to simulate periods of relatively higher shear (~30 to 35 kts) and elongated hodographs on Friday. Thus, a few isolated stronger storms may be possible Friday afternoon/evening.
There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend and continue into early next week.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 800 AM Tuesday...
A general scattering of 3000 ft AGL stratocumulus over the nrn Coastal Plain may briefly attain broken coverage at RWI through 14Z.
High pressure will favor VFR conditions otherwise and elsewhere through early tonight, along with calm to light and variable surface winds. A risk of fog/stratus will continue mainly over ern NC and as far west as RWI and perhaps FAY late tonight-Wed morning.
Outlook: A chance of afternoon-evening showers/storms will exist mainly across the Piedmont Thu and area-wide Fri-Sat.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 925 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS Valley Thursday and Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 925 AM Tuesday...
All low clouds have cleared out of northeastern counties, leaving just a few high clouds around the region. Tweaked some hourly temperature/dewpoint grids, but more seasonable high temperatures in the low to mid 80s remained unchanged in the forecast. Previous discussion follows.
As of 345 AM Tuesday...
A weak mid/upr-level trough will move across the OH Valley today and cntl Appalachians and Middle Atlantic tonight. Preceding deep dryness and stability evident on the 00Z/21st GSO RAOB, and neutral height tendency aloft with the approach/passage of the trough, suggest the only sensible weather impact may be thin cirrus overnight.
At the surface, high pressure centered this morning along the Middle Atlantic coast will continue to extend swwd and across the Southeast.
Modification of the high and associated air mass will favor afternoon temperatures about 2-5 F warmer than Mon, or 79 to 85. The continued proximity and presence of the surface ridge will yield strong radiational cooling once again, with lows mostly in the mid- upr 50s and accompanied by a risk of radiation fog over the Coastal Plain.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM Tuesday...
A sub-tropical mid-level ridge and the underlying wrn extension of surface high pressure centered over the wrn Atlantic will remain over the Southeast, while an Appalachian-lee surface trough will develop across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont. Warmer and dry conditions will result, with highs in the mid-upr 80s, followed by milder lows in the mid 50s to lwr 60s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 346 AM Tuesday...
Upper pattern through the extended: A low-amplitude upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes Thursday. A series of short waves will then move through the TN Valley and wash out over the southern Appalachians Friday through Monday.
Thursday: On Thursday, a low-amplitude upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our central to northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day. While some deterministic models suggest better coverage over central NC Thursday evening (e.g. GFS, Canadian, EURO), ensemble guidance has higher probabilities for precipitation staying north into central VA, lowering with southeastward extend. This makes sense conceptually as the better forcing/low-level moisture still appears to stay to our north. As such, decided to lean on ensemble guidance and continue to hold just slight to low chance POPs Thursday afternoon/evening.
Ensembles continue to simulate a potentially potent short wave riding through the TN Valley Friday, followed by a secondary vort signature passing over central NC on Saturday. Deterministic models are still in a bit of disagreement wrt the evolution of these features, but overall it still looks like periods of unsettled weather should occur Friday through Monday. Severe weather parameters are not popping off the charts at this point during this period. However, ensembles continue to simulate periods of relatively higher shear (~30 to 35 kts) and elongated hodographs on Friday. Thus, a few isolated stronger storms may be possible Friday afternoon/evening.
There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday. The quartile spread widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend and continue into early next week.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 800 AM Tuesday...
A general scattering of 3000 ft AGL stratocumulus over the nrn Coastal Plain may briefly attain broken coverage at RWI through 14Z.
High pressure will favor VFR conditions otherwise and elsewhere through early tonight, along with calm to light and variable surface winds. A risk of fog/stratus will continue mainly over ern NC and as far west as RWI and perhaps FAY late tonight-Wed morning.
Outlook: A chance of afternoon-evening showers/storms will exist mainly across the Piedmont Thu and area-wide Fri-Sat.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLHZ TRIANGLE NORTH EXECUTIVE,NC | 11 sm | 28 min | NE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 61°F | 65% | 30.07 | |
| KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 16 sm | 22 min | NNE 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 79°F | 61°F | 54% | 30.05 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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