Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 6:08 PM   Moonset 4:03 AM

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FXUS64 KMRX 211933 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry through Wednesday with above normal temperatures.

Discussion:

A moderate CU field is in place across the east TN mountains this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms should begin to pop up shortly and persist until this evening. Otherwise, quiet overnight along with mild overnight temps.

Tomorrow, ridging begins to shift east as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. High pressure hold strong across the Gulf though, and the cold front slows down and remains to our north and west. Because of this, we should remain mostly dry , other than some slight chance POPs across the Cumberland Plateau, east TN mountains, and southwest VA during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into early next week.

2. Temperatures will generally remain near to slightly above normal.

Discussion:

The couple of days of nice weather will come to an end late Wednesday night into Thursday, as troughing begins to extend across the northern US and we undergo a quasi-zonal flow pattern the rest of long term period into next week. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Memorial Day weekend, and even into early next week. Shortwave ripples within the flow will cycle west to east, providing the support needed for the development of unsettled weather. A stationary front that will hang to our north and eventually south of us through approximately Friday, will also aid precipitation chances as well.

MLCAPEs through Saturday will be in the hundreds to low thousands J/kg. The one day that does stand out, however, is Sunday when a potentially more potent shortwave rounds the trough to our north.
MLCAPEs show values up to and over 2000 J/kg Sunday afternoon. SPC is already highlighting this set-up in their outlook, where western parts of our CWA are within the 15 percent oval.

Generally, each day may run the risk of thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and flooding from repeated rounds or heavy rain rates.
Specifics as far as strong to severe thunderstorm potential is too early to know as timing of the shortwaves will play a role. With no real southerly flow, temperatures will remain around to just above normal through the period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through the period at all sites, along with light southerly winds at CHA and west southwest at TYS and TRI, less than 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 88 69 86 / 10 10 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 84 67 81 / 10 10 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 65 83 67 80 / 10 10 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 83 63 78 / 10 10 20 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,