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FXUS64 KOUN 172301 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 601 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Our upper trough will be exiting to the east through today with ridging building in behind it setting us up for a heating trend starting Saturday. The stalled surface boundary/cool front has washed out with a broad dryline stretched lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies. Will maintain POPS across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon through early evening as embedded vorticity in the trough of the wave could initiate isolated elevated storms.
Although weak in intensity, forecast sounding showing sufficient high-based instability (above 800 mb) for convection although shear is very weak for any organization or going severe. Visible satellite imagery was already showing some cyclonic circulation with the cloud cover over southeast Oklahoma while the latest three HRRR runs suggesting isolated convection.

With no surface boundaries coming through, our surface moisture won't be going anywhere so expect temperatures tonight to cool to the dewpoint (lower 60s) enhanced by clear night skies and light/calm winds. As a result, could see some radiational fog develop by mid-morning mainly east of I-35. Although much of the fog should be patchy, there could be some embedded areas going dense.
Any fog should that develops should burn off shortly after sunrise.
As previously mentioned, pressure heights will start rising Saturday as an upper ridge start building in and under sunny skies afternoon temperatures will heat about 10 degrees warmer than today with highs in the lower 90s across our western CWA to the upper 80s to the east.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Gusty south winds return Sunday as well as the the dryline sharpening up across the Panhandles through west Texas as surface moisture increases across our area. Will see much of our western and northern CWA warm well into the mid 90s and although conditional, could see some convection develop east of the dryline by late afternoon but due to uncertainties with instability strength just east of the dryline will keep them very low (14-18%) but mentionable for now. Although the GFS is the weaker solution with respect to surface based instability, the ECMWF is much more aggressive in the moderate (3000 J/kg) range while deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized severe convection in a most likely uncapped environment. The mid-level cap strengthens closer to I-35 so will keep POPs and the marginal severe risk for Sunday afternoon across all of western Oklahoma into a few of our adjacent western north Texas counties with large hail & damaging wind gusts as the potential severe hazards. If convection off the Southern High Plains does not initiate, then have a higher chance for storms with an MCS developing across Kansas through northern Oklahoma late Sunday as a shortwave digs through the westerlies. For this system, will have up to 40% POPs for elevated storms overnight extending down to I-40. Can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms overnight as well.

A persisting tight surface pressure gradient will maintain windy conditions Sunday night into Monday with a low-level jet developing through the night. Mixing into the jet late Monday morning could result in 30-35 mph gusts during the afternoon, and perhaps higher should the GFS solution be correct verses a weaker ECMWF solution with the strength of the jet in the afternoon. Our heating trend will peak on Monday afternoon with all of our CWA rising well in the 90s, to upper 90s across our western CWA Both models in agreeance with the dryline punching into western Oklahoma during the afternoon. It will feel quite muggy as well ahead of the dryline with those upper 60s dewpoints, although windy conditions might bring some relief from it. Our upper ridge is scooted out on Tuesday with a broad trough digging through from the west, pushing our next cold front and the dryline through late into Wednesday.
This will bring a return of storm POPs late Tuesday mainly along and east of I-35 along with a severe risk. This cold front may lift back through our area as a warm front on Thursday so will maintain POPs widespread for late next week. Although temperatures should be cooler more in the 80s after Tuesday, afternoon temperatures still trend warmer than climatically average through the end of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Skies will clear with loss of the sun and should remain clear through the forecast period. Winds will be light from the south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 61 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 61 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 62 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 59 93 63 95 / 0 10 10 20 Ponca City OK 59 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 62 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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