Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 5:32 PM   Moonset 3:29 AM

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AMZ154 S Of Cape Hatteras To Ocracoke Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm Including The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary- 431 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening, decreasing to 1 nm or less. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw 1 ft at 3 seconds. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 431 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.

FXUS62 KMHX 212039 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 439 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

- Increased risk of widespread dense fog again tonight

High pressure continues to nose south along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and will eventually shift over, or just offshore, of the ENC coastline through tonight. Low clouds from this morning have mostly mixed out, with the exception of the Outer Banks, where the low-level inversion is holding strong with the continued northeasterly onshore flow off the cooler waters of the Atlantic. Those clouds will probably not completely dissipated this afternoon, and I've held onto mostly cloudy skies there for most of the afternoon. Elsewhere, afternoon cumulus clouds will develop within the moistening return flow off the warmer Atlantic waters south of Hatteras.

Within that moistening flow, dewpoints are forecast to rise back into the 60s by this evening. Meanwhile, with high pressure overhead and light winds, T/Td spreads will quickly decrease, setting up what appears to be a solid signal for fog tonight.
Short-term guidance is showing a much stronger signal for fog compared to this morning, with probabilities of dense fog as high as 60-80%, especially across the coastal plain and OBX. The previous forecast handled this potential nicely, so no changes to the forecast or messaging are planned. Assuming confidence remains high, a Dense Fog Advisory will mostly likely be needed.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

- Trending warmer, but still mostly dry, on Wednesday

Surface high pressure shifts further offshore on Wednesday, with lee- troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10 degrees higher than today. While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to build in from the north through Thursday. A series of shortwaves will come through the region Friday through the weekend, with a wetter and more unsettled end the long term.

Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Thu, temps rise to near 90 and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with low 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 60s.

Friday through Monday...High pressure shifts offshore to our west and more active pattern kicks in with multiple shortwaves impacting the region. Thundershowers possible with each of these waves with a warm/humid airmass in place, thanks to the high offshore. Rain chances ahead of the shortwave and frontal system early Friday have trended a bit drier, so kept PoPs generally at Schc, with highest values the further north you go.
After the front passes through, a series of shortwaves impact ENC, one on Friday night through Saturday, and another Monday into Monday night. Both of these shortwaves carry Chc PoPs with them. Followed closer to climo, and kept highest thunder chances in the afternoon and evening periods. At this point severe weather threat appears to be low through the weekend.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

- Increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight (due to BR/FG)

High pressure will shift over the area this evening, then offshore by Wednesday morning. The developing return flow around the high will lead to an increasing layer of shallow moisture through tonight. As temp/dewpoint spreads decrease with light winds tonight, there will be an increased risk of dense fog developing. Short-term guidance is showing a much stronger signal for FG tonight, with a more widespread coverage likely.
Probabilistic guidance is showing a 60-80% chance of LIFR/IFR VIS in BR/FG tonight, and we'll trend the TAFs more pessimistically in this direction.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday onwards could result in lower vis and ceilings.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...

- Dense fog threat returns tonight into Wednesday morning

High pressure will continue to nose into the area through tonight, then shift further away from the coast on Wednesday.
Light winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating conditions for most waters during the daylight hours.
The exception will be the evening through morning hours, when dense fog will impact much of the coastal waters. It's likely that another Marine Dense Fog Advisory will be needed to cover this threat, so stay tuned for updates and later headlines.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control through Thursday morning, resulting in good boating conditions.
As the high moves offshore through the day Thursday, SW winds pick up, gusting near 20 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds come back down a tad Thursday night, but multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms exist Friday through the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Hatteras (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:49 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:24 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Hatteras (fishing pier), North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:29 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:17 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,